Wonder why business is "less than stellar"

[softball]

Its not all tubes. The recession, no matter what "they" say is clearly not over. This is an interesting article.

Here are some more grim figures from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The number of people of working age (16-64) in America actively employed is at a 25-year low, around 64%
One in five men of working age are jobless
A tremendous number of working people are not in full-time employment - the average working week length is 34.3 hours

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13358745

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by rhetorical

Its not all tubes. The recession, no matter what "they" say is clearly not over. This is an interesting article.



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13358745

I think your right.
Tubes are a scapegoat but between the recession, card banging and sites with shit stain content your seeing a more frugal and savvy consumer.

[softball]

exactly...

[miz_wright]

I feel like this is stuff we've covered ad infinitum since '07. I feel pretty confident I could dig up threads from that fall about credit crises, and ongoing debt consolodation, and myriad other factors.

Who's tracked their business through the macro factors?

[LAJ]

I like to call it a perfect storm of all the above. Bad economy, tubes, shitty business practices... add to that more savvy surfers, more pissed off / ripped off surfers, rampant piracy, poor innovation / product.

[softball]

Originally Posted by miz_wright

I feel like this is stuff we've covered ad infinitum since '07. I feel pretty confident I could dig up threads from that fall about credit crises, and ongoing debt consolodation, and myriad other factors.

Who's tracked their business through the macro factors?

It might be that, Liz....but its 4 years later and a lot more people have been beat up since then. The good news for me, is I feel a change in the air. For one thing, nothing lasts forever, recessions come, and they go. The cowboy theft days of the internet are being chipped away at. The internet is about business and business will survive. We have everything from ebooks, to xbox, to big studios getting on it now.
My prediction is, a solution is on the horizon and all the assholes that have made millions stealing content from everyone, will go legit. Kinda do a Joe Kennedy and become respectable. But it will end. The question is, who will be left?

[Toby]

FWIW, I was up 6% in 2009 over 2008, and 2010 was within $130 of 2009. So far in 2011, thru end of April, I'm up 31% over the same period in 2010. April 2011 set a new single month record.

Not exactly sure what I'm doing different than everyone else, but business is just fine here.

[softball]

You are one of the lucky ones, toby

[Hell Puppy]

Originally Posted by Toby

Not exactly sure what I'm doing different than everyone else, but business is just fine here.

My guess is putting some hard work in instead of sitting around bitching about money not being as easy as it used to be or looking for the next way to game the system.

[RawAlex]

Originally Posted by Toby

FWIW, I was up 6% in 2009 over 2008, and 2010 was within $130 of 2009. So far in 2011, thru end of April, I'm up 31% over the same period in 2010. April 2011 set a new single month record.

Not exactly sure what I'm doing different than everyone else, but business is just fine here.

One of the biggest mistakes that I see made in business is being in your position and thinking things are okay. While you may be seeing positive results in the current situation, you are still gaining ground on a sinking island.

There is a blog / news / propaganda site out there (called techdirt) which is all about copyright, trademarks, and patents. They are particularly hateful of content producers, supportive of pirates, and they spend a whole lot of time talking about "business models that work" in this situation. They show some situations where things work out. They never address the idea however that these "successes" happen in a failing, collapsing marketplace. When that marketplace fails, the "successful" will die right along with everyone else, because the market will no longer exist.

To use one of their own analogies, it's like being a buggy whip maker in the late 1800s. Your business might be booming, but those new fangled horseless carriages are going to wipe out the entire market soon enough.

In our case, we are dealing with a stranger situation, because it isn't demand that is failing. Rather, we face the issue that the product is easily duplicated and distributed, and there is a little that the porn industry can offer to these people that they cannot already get for free as a result of piracy. We are literally being driven out of business by our own products.

Tube sites are only an admission by some that the idea of selling porn in and of itself is such a marginal business, that they would rather be in the traffic aggregation business than the selling or marketing of porn business. What they are doing is really hastening the end of things, because they are training more and more surfers to get their porn for nothing.

What is funny in all of this is that when they do manage to drag porn down to nothing, they will be killing themselves as well. The income / expense ratios of running a bit tube site are pretty high, and actually having to pay for exclusive content to fill the tube site would be beyond what most of them can handle. There is less porn made now than before, and that trend is likely to continue. They may find themselves with no sources of cheap / free content, with no ability to grow their businesses.

So while they may find themselves currently gaining ground, they have most certainly gained ground on a sinking island.

For anyone involved in selling porn online, the real risks lie in companies like CCBill, Epoch, and other processors no longer being able to support their business models. As the total transactional value of porn continues to shrink, these companies will also find themselves pinched. Some of them get involved in somewhat shady practices to pump up the bottom line, but in the end, they end up in the same place: They transact less business, they deal with higher chargeback and fraud rates, and they suffer on the bottom line. If those few remaining dominoes in the processing area fail, all the gained ground is meaningless.

It's not to be negative and it's not to being a downer. Things haven't "changed", they are "changing". The current situation isn't the end position, so being good in the current situation isn't any indication that you have the right tools and the right place for the next phase (coming soon to an internet near you).

[Toby]

Alex, I might agree with you if my primary business was selling hardcore video porn. The type of content I promote, while not immune from piracy, is not readily available on most tubes and torrents.

[RawAlex]

Originally Posted by Toby

Alex, I might agree with you if my primary business was selling hardcore video porn. The type of content I promote, while not immune from piracy, is not readily available on most tubes and torrents.

Toby,you missed my point. You are reliant on the infrastructure that sells hardcore porn. Without the ability to process, the availability of hosting, and the like, you would find yourself with an exclusive product and no simple method to turn it into cash.

You may have the fanciest and most desirable buggy whips out there. But when all the buggy whip stores close (because there is no longer a widespread demand to support the stores) you no longer have anywhere to sell your fancy product.

[Toby]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

Toby,you missed my point. You are reliant on the infrastructure that sells hardcore porn. Without the ability to process, the availability of hosting, and the like, you would find yourself with an exclusive product and no simple method to turn it into cash.

No, I didn't miss that point, I completely dismissed it. I don't think your pessimism about processing is backed up by anything solid. I just recently read a post by Ron Cadwell that CCBill will process more volume this year than any other. I don't think processors are hurting at all.

[RawAlex]

Originally Posted by Toby

No, I didn't miss that point, I completely dismissed it. I don't think your pessimism about processing is backed up by anything solid. I just recently read a post by Ron Cadwell that CCBill will process more volume this year than any other. I don't think processors are hurting at all.

What is the volume made up of? Increased dollars? Increased transactions at significantly lower rates? Cross sales?

Friend Finder does 300 million of business a year, and have been increasing for years. Too bad it costs them, nearly 350 million to do it. Volume doesn't impress me.

[Toby]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

What is the volume made up of? Increased dollars? Increased transactions at significantly lower rates? Cross sales?

Friend Finder does 300 million of business a year, and have been increasing for years. Too bad it costs them, nearly 350 million to do it. Volume doesn't impress me.

You'll have to ask Ron those questions. His exact words, "I see all the numbers and people say that the adult internet side is dying. But I can tell you for a fact that CCbill will do more processing this year than any year EVER."

I still don't see you backing up your dire prognosis for processors with anything concrete.

[softball]

Well, I see both sides of this one. I agree with Alex that when all the free content dries up, the tube sites are fucked. In fact, if you surf the tube sites at the moment, you will see the same stuff being rehashed on all of them, and even rehashed individually. I read Caldwell's quote, and he specifically stays away from saying they made more "money". Their business could be like "Hun" traffic. Large volume, small conversions. Who knows.
But I do know this, that I launched a new site yesterday in what I think is a great niche..or in this case "niches" and the sales amazed me. I agree with Toby on this one, low traffic, good conversions is a good place to be in the middle of this meltdown. I won't claim that anything is "on fire" at the moment, but I will say its good business, not greedy business...grin

[RawAlex]

Originally Posted by Toby

You'll have to ask Ron those questions. His exact words, "I see all the numbers and people say that the adult internet side is dying. But I can tell you for a fact that CCbill will do more processing this year than any year EVER."

I still don't see you backing up your dire prognosis for processors with anything concrete.

Since Ron isn't exactly putting the numbers out there for anyone to see, there is much to support his words either. It would be absolutely amazing (stunning actually) if there were actually more valid and successful sales in adult right now.

Now, of course, if they are accepting cross sales (and the chargebacks that come with it), their volume of transactions could be going up. But I am not clear that this represents actual sales in adult.

I will take what I can see overall over Ron's words at this point, as I cannot see anything that supports his quote.

[Toby]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

Now, of course, if they are accepting cross sales...

CCBill only allows un-checked cross sales, and very few sites use them. It's an insignificant portion of their business. I think you're looking way too hard to find a reason to discount his statement. No idea why you're so jaded, but it's effecting your objectivity.

[softball]

Originally Posted by Toby

CCBill only allows un-checked cross sales, and very few sites use them. It's an insignificant portion of their business. I think you're looking way too hard to find a reason to discount his statement. No idea why you're so jaded, but it's effecting your objectivity.

Toby, as you know I have a long background in journalism, and I can recognize spin down the block and around the corner. Like Alex said, ron did not mention profits, just volume. IMHO, if he meant profit, he would have trumpeted it loud and clear and amazed us all. But he did not. My bullshit detector is pinning at 11 on this one.

[Toby]

Originally Posted by rhetorical

Toby, as you know I have a long background in journalism, and I can recognize spin down the block and around the corner. Like Alex said, ron did not mention profits, just volume. IMHO, if he meant profit, he would have trumpeted it loud and clear and amazed us all. But he did not. My bullshit detector is pinning at 11 on this one.

Sure, there's likely some spin in that statement, but it's still a long stretch from there to a pending demise of processing. There's just no evidence to back that up.

[softball]

Originally Posted by Toby

Sure, there's likely some spin in that statement, but it's still a long stretch from there to a pending demise of processing. There's just no evidence to back that up.

I totally agree. But Alex has a good point as well. You know they have to be hurting along with everyone else. This is not exactly 2004 when we needed to make room in the fridge for the Cristal.