Bush will lose the 2004 election by a landslide

[MattK]

Bush has no chance in 2004. He is a 1 term president just like his dad.

[Mike AI]

and you base your reasoning on?

[Hooper]

Matt, I like you already.... but i'd like to hear your logic.

Dont be a pussy who says things without backing it up.

[MattK]

I have inside information from the Bildebergers.

Seriously though. W will lose for the same reason his dad did -- the economy. Even though things look ok now for stocks and the economy, there are some major cracks showing. After a huge decline in the stock market over the next year, the economy will contract, real estate prices will go down, and more importantly people's moods will be angry and negative.

Based on election history over the past 150 years, when the market falls over the president's last 2 years, he is very likely to lose. So it does not matter what W and the republicans say or do from now until the election, he is still gonna be toast.

[TheEnforcer]

Now I'm gonna shock a few people here and say while in the past the economy has been by far the biggest factor in an election that Bush has the possibility of being able to be someone who can defy that trend. IF he can frame the election much more around national security AND the dem candidate doesn't come up with an effective way to deal with that Bush can win despite a bad economy.

Clinton said it best when he visited the college class in Arkansas that studied his presidency http://www.c-span.org/VideoArchives.asp?Ca...ssue,PE;&Page=2 when he said that the dem candidate, or any candidate for that matter, has to be able to convince voters by doing this:

1) You have to point out something that the public might not have taken notice of that they won't like about the other guy and point out it's something you won't do.

2) You have to point to something that they DO like about the guy and convince them you can do that as well (in our current situation defense)

3) And going back to point two you also have to offer something ELSE you will do on that issue they will like that he won't do.

Even for people who DON'T like Clinton I suggest you watch that video (anyone know what player works for that type (.rm) of file to watch it?) as it's an extremely interesting and candid discussion and whether you like him or not you can get some very interesting political information from the show.

BTW- not sure if that's just a clip or the full show.

[Mike AI]

MattK I think there is plenty of time for economy to get better....

I also think the group of democrats are a very weak bunch....

I think Bush will win. He is a true leader... I think he has potential to be a great leader.

His father raised taxs, and a bunch of other stupid things.... he was not a leader.... he was a beauracrat... and did not deserve to win the election! Only reason he was elected the first place was thanks to Ronald Reagan ( Who Bush 43 is much closer to in actions then his father)

The number 1 issue, at least for me right now is the war on terror, and National Security, then the ecnomy.... Both I think Bush would do better handling then any democrat....

[Digipimp]

As much as I hate it, right now the group of dumbasses running against King George doesn't have a fucking chance. And if you doubt for one second that this dude will get us into another conflict at election time and then sell it to the masses that he needs to stay in to finish it then you'll be real surprised. Fuck I hate George Bush, fuck that I hate politicians.

[Winetalk.com]

son, the re is no prizes for the longest thread on Oprano
;-)))

[wig]

Originally posted by MattK@Jun 14 2003, 04:50 PM
After a huge decline in the stock market over the next year, the economy will contract, real estate prices will go down, and more importantly people's moods will be angry and negative.

I don't know what it may mean for the election, but I agree with your assesment.

I also think the middle east will see major problems, most likely in Saudi Arabia and the Israeli / palestinian conflict.

If we are right, Bush's best chance is national security.

[Mike AI]

Anyone willing to put some bets against GW Bush in 2004, I am taking offers....

Might as well make some money on this!

[wig]

Not me. :P

Personally, I could care less who wins. I'd rather see Bush than any of the Democrats, but I guess if it really mattered I would like to see a Libertarian win.

I mean, why not. Let's see what they can do for a change.

[SykkBoy]

Originally posted by Mike AI@Jun 14 2003, 06:34 PM
Anyone willing to put some bets against GW Bush in 2004, I am taking offers....

Might as well make some money on this!

...are we going to go by popular vote or electoral vote? ;-)))


personally, it doesn't matter who wins, we'll most likely be thrown into a world war 3 situation anyways, sharon and arafat will see to that...

I think we need to more carefully focus on our homegrown terrorists....I personally feel more threatened by the fire and brimstone right to lifers and religious zealots who condone bombing abortion clinics and blame the 911 attacks on homosexuals, white supremacy groups, blind faith right wing zealots, blind faith liberal zealots and the ever-ready to boil over ethnic war that is inevitable in this country more than bad arabs across the ocean.

[wig]

Originally posted by SykkBoy@Jun 14 2003, 07:38 PM
I think we need to more carefully focus on our homegrown terrorists....I personally feel more threatened by the fire and brimstone right to lifers and religious zealots who condone bombing abortion clinics and blame the 911 attacks on homosexuals, white supremacy groups, blind faith right wing zealots, blind faith liberal zealots and the ever-ready to boil over ethnic war that is inevitable in this country more than bad arabs across the ocean.

I think the extremists on both sides of the ideology spectrum represent a very small % of the ppl.

They just get the most coverage.

[SykkBoy]

Originally posted by wig@Jun 14 2003, 07:32 PM
but I guess if it really mattered I would like to see a Libertarian win.

I mean, why not. Let's see what they can do for a change.

I would like to see it too, but they're having enough of our own problems.

while no doubt Dr. Brown will run again and I'll vote for him again, the Libertarians need to work harder to make strids locally before attmepting anything of substance nationally...

[MattK]

Originally posted by Mike AI@Jun 14 2003, 06:34 PM
Anyone willing to put some bets against GW Bush in 2004, I am taking offers....

Might as well make some money on this!

hmmm, ok

I'll bet you $30,000 Bush loses in the 2004 presedential election

you guys think you know politics!? time to put up or shut up baby!

[wig]

Sykk,

I voted for Brown as well and would do so again. What problems are they having?

I must admit that even though I vote, I do not take much of a personal interest in trying to further the cause.

[wig]

Mattk,

Who would you vote for and why?

[SykkBoy]

wig, same problems as plaguing the "big two"...a lot of petty bickering and in-fighting over the focus of the party...

[wig]

too bad, cause if things do get crazy there may be a ripe time period for new approaches to gather some interest and momentum.

Right now it's a joke, but it has to be started somewhere.

[MattK]

Originally posted by wig@Jun 14 2003, 07:59 PM
Mattk,

Who would you vote for and why?

It does not matter who the democratic candidate is. The election is about how people are feeling, it is not about rational decision making. When the economy hits the crapper, people will be pissed at the current administration, and W will get voted out. If there is not a popular democrat at the time, someone like Nadar has a shot at making it.

Personally I don't vote or I vote libertarian.

[SykkBoy]

Originally posted by wig@Jun 14 2003, 08:04 PM
too bad, cause if things do get crazy there may be a ripe time period for new approaches to gather some interest and momentum.

Right now it's a joke, but it has to be started somewhere.

Yup, but that's also why I feel it's important for the party to act locally. If the libertarians can get a nice foothold locally and start influencing local politics, it can set a pathway to more national attention.

[wig]

Originally posted by MattK+Jun 14 2003, 08:12 PM-->