Credit Crunch and Niche Selection

[Hell Puppy]

Gonna share some thoughts that I dont normally give away for free... But it's a theory, so I'll kick it out there and if others pay attention we have more data to see if I'm right in a few months.

Now this is gonna read like some sort of trigonometry proof, but bear with me...

Given... We're in a credit crunch. As a result, only those with good proven credit and income are being extended any sort of credit at all.

Given... Visa see's a surge of new credit cards between May and October going to recent grads and those starting school. These are usually low limit cards on special programs to introduce these kids to the credit card and make junkies out of them at a young age.

Now when you put both of those together though, you can figure the amount of these cards coming into circulation this year is probably a fraction of previous years.

Given... College kids represent a pretty high percentage of porn surfers and when they have money they are also porn buyers.

Given... College kids typically go for young, glam, hotties. The really fresh faced look, college coeds, teens, etc. This is one of the reasons that the "teen" niche is so big. If you've ever monitored your demographics, you'll know this is where most of the under 25 set target.

Given... Older guys with jobs and good credit are typically a bit more sexually mature. They've long since figured out what exactly it is that does it for them. It is much easier to sell them on a niche or fetish that lights their fire than it is to convert them on a 19 year old girl diddling herself and giggling....though some of us still like that too. But I digress!

So what am I forecasting when i add all of that together?

Here's my theorem... The teen site market is about to make a little down turn. I also think the same can be said for cookie cutter meat and potatoes hardcore, your traditional fuck flicks from the valley. Now this doesn't mean a boom for niche and fetish, but I think that is a safer haven. If I were building paysites or mousetraps right now, I dont think i'd focus on teen.

Anyone else wanna help me bench mark this for a bit?

the result I expect to see is sales down on teen and general hardcore, sales level or at least down less on every other niche and fetish.

[Toby]

I've been doing narrow niche fetish, targeting that more mature surfer, for the last 4 or 5 years. That older surfer tends to be more financially stable. Also, over half my site traffic comes from Europe. Those two factors are probably why my income is up slightly YTD over last year when so many are crying crocodile tears over a big decline.

[EmporerEJ]

What you need to watch for, from a business perspective, is "change in terms" from all your credit cards.
Those with GOOD credit will see incremental changes, i.e. a 1-2% increase in your APR, and those with marginal credit, massive, as much as double rates.
Advanta has been widely viewed doing this.
Start paying attention to those "innocent looking" envelopes in the mail.

[gonzo]

Think global billing . . .

[EmporerEJ]

It's always been my experience, in the video biz, and the internet, recession is GOOD for adult. Some of my best days in the local video store biz was during the massive layoffs in the late 80's and early 90's.

[Toby]

Originally Posted by EmporerEJ

It's always been my experience, in the video biz, and the internet, recession is GOOD for adult. Some of my best days in the local video store biz was during the massive layoffs in the late 80's and early 90's.

Yes, but this one just feels different to me. I don't think this biz is going to get by unscathed. In fact, if you've been paying attention, you've already seen some of the fall out.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by EmporerEJ

It's always been my experience, in the video biz, and the internet, recession is GOOD for adult. Some of my best days in the local video store biz was during the massive layoffs in the late 80's and early 90's.

Porn used to be recession proof. Now with all the free porn to be had those days are sadly over.

[RawAlex]

Originally Posted by Toby

Yes, but this one just feels different to me. I don't think this biz is going to get by unscathed. In fact, if you've been paying attention, you've already seen some of the fall out.

Thankfully Deecash and their friends bought out the weak and the sick and have now pretty much gone into hiding. Sort of like a cleanup and flush all at the same time.

[softball]

I have been in the niche business from day 1. People, most of who have come and gone and are waiting tables, laughed. Business is down. I would be lying to say it isn't, but it has gone from being an amazing income to a very, very good income. So, though I can complain, I won't. Wouldn't help anyway. I don't spam this board, but if any of you want to dip your toe in focussed fetish....and you do have to know how to sell it...you can have a look and do Alex's bench mark.

http://www.leggycash.com

pm me if you have any questions or advice about targetted marketing of these products

[TheEnforcer]

I would agree that more niche/fetish type stuff will likely hold up better. As well a solo girl sites that have real personality and interaction with their members.

[DannyCox]

Like Toby, a lot of our membership is now coming out of Europe and appears to be an older and more wealthy clientèle. As the North American market slowed down for us, the European market picked up.

I do see a downturn for cookie-cutter sites and for all those "Teen Solo Girl" sites. That's all a dime a dozen these days. The niche sites should pull through as people will always pay for their Fetish.

[EmporerEJ]

Well, I can't speak for anyone else, but we're fine.
And I think it will be a bright future.
As for the cookie cutters, and the slicksters, they deserve to be eliminated. I don't think the economy has anything to do with it.

[TheEnforcer]

Originally Posted by DannyCox

Like Toby, a lot of our membership is now coming out of Europe and appears to be an older and more wealthy clientèle. As the North American market slowed down for us, the European market picked up.

I do see a downturn for cookie-cutter sites and for all those "Teen Solo Girl" sites. That's all a dime a dozen these days. The niche sites should pull through as people will always pay for their Fetish.

Well done solo girl sites will still do well as long as the model is interactive and such.

[DannyCox]

The truth is, very very few Solo Girl / Teen sites are the least bit interactive. The formula is done to death, yet most of the losers on places like GFY still fall for it. Get a hot chick, take a bunch of pictures, then pay her to do a bunch of fan signs (something I still don't understand). The webmaster then spends a little time teasing the boys on the board and in ICQ, and by that time, the guys are in love and drooling. They never seem to realize that most of these girls would just spit on them in public, but they allow themselves to be played like surfer marks!

They get conversions from these sites in the 1:10,000 range, yet keep promoting them because "she messaged me!".

I do agree that if a girl is fully involved in her site, is interactive with her members (not talking about camgirls trying to get private paid shows), and is responsive to their wants, they can do well. But so few actually do any of that, yet that's what you see promoted the most.

I can see the time when money gets tight that even the most desperate of these sexually-repressed webmasters will realize they have been played and will start dropping those sites. So few people actually analyze there traffic, or even understand it, and have no idea that they are just following the herd mentality that some guys really know how to steer.

[RawAlex]

Teen solo girls without a true niche and personality are hard sales. I think the surfers are catching on that many of the sites without cam shows and such are just some fat webmaster fronting for a girl that shot for money for a couple of weeks and left the building quickly. I still list then and promote them in passing on blogs and stuff, but if the surfers don't nibble, I am not headed back there to promote more.

I am finding that good old fashioned "name" pornstars are also doing okay. Search volume certainly seems to be up more on girls names these days.

[Hell Puppy]

Originally Posted by gonzo

Think global billing . . .

Dude...

I was trying to monetize some hellacious foreign traffic at the forum...

[Hell Puppy]

Originally Posted by Toby

Yes, but this one just feels different to me. I don't think this biz is going to get by unscathed. In fact, if you've been paying attention, you've already seen some of the fall out.

Yeah, this is very different from your normal recession. Last time we debated this I was on the side of porn being recession proof and have about 20 years worth of numbers to back that up.

What we're doing with here is fall out from a dried up credit market.

Our achilles heal has always been ability to take payment. No credit cards, we have a real problem. And yes, people do cut back on clubbing and such when money gets tight, which historically has been good for porn sales. But if there's enough quality out there for a broke ass to get his nut without paying for it, they will.

That being said, down markets always create opportunities.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by Hell Puppy

Dude...

I was trying to monetize some hellacious foreign traffic at the forum...

I sent you a PM

[bluemoney]

I'll just say this . . . . . When HP speaks, I listen.

When GonZo speaks, I listen carefully cause I'm still working on my "GonZoian" vocabulary

[Toby]

Originally Posted by bluemoney

I'll just say this . . . . . When HP speaks, I listen.

+1

Both HP and Gonzo toss out subtle gems, you just have to read between the lines so you don't miss them.

"Ah, you seek meaning. Then listen to the music, not the song." ~ Kosh Naranek

[Hell Puppy]

Originally Posted by bluemoney

I'll just say this . . . . . When HP speaks, I listen.

When GonZo speaks, I listen carefully cause I'm still working on my "GonZoian" vocabulary

Someone should invite me to do a seminar on how to speak gonzo...

[Greg B]

I mentioned weeks ago on some boards that credit users I know were warned they were having their limits reduced. Big ticket companies are dying on the vine. Soon you're going to see less than 20% of the people in this country with credit of any substantial means. Now that's still millions of people but if they're smart they won't use that credit for shit. You're going to see so many businesses go out of business it's going to be pathetic UNLESS two things are done by the President and Bush ain't gonna do it and McCain is too much a pushover. We shoulda had Ron Paul in the running but hey, what did you expect? Obama and Biden you figure would have a plan but Biden and his son both work for a big cc company MBNA.

People will stop using CCs for many things and the change over for our kind of business will be with banks/checks online type processing.

The meltdown is already going on and the effects we won't see in full til after winter at the earliest but if there isn't a massive change in the way we do government away from these rip off Republican backed gangsters we're all doomed.

It sucks but as usual the simple, only way out will be the last thing looked at.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by Hell Puppy

Someone should invite me to do a seminar on how to speak gonzo...

I think I bought gonzopedia.com

[Dravyk]

Originally Posted by Hell Puppy

Here's my theorem... The teen site market is about to make a little down turn. I also think the same can be said for cookie cutter meat and potatoes hardcore, your traditional fuck flicks from the valley. Now this doesn't mean a boom for niche and fetish, but I think that is a safer haven. If I were building paysites or mousetraps right now, I dont think i'd focus on teen.

Anyone else wanna help me bench mark this for a bit?

the result I expect to see is sales down on teen and general hardcore, sales level or at least down less on every other niche and fetish.

Between Madonna being one hot 50 year old, the whole Palin thing, the thing now with Cougars ... plus you're going to have older guys out of jobs who will still be spending money as they'll have more time on their (pun) hands ... I think the MILF niche is a strong one now and in the future.

So yeah, if all porn niches were stocks, I'd put money on MILF (Nasdeq symbol) to be the one do best for the prevailing future.

[bluemoney]

Originally Posted by Dravyk

Between Madonna being one hot 50 year old, the whole Palin thing, the thing now with Cougars ... plus you're going to have older guys out of jobs who will still be spending money as they'll have more time on their (pun) hands ... I think the MILF niche is a strong one now and in the future.

So yeah, if all porn niches were stocks, I'd put money on MILF (Nasdeq symbol) to be the one do best for the prevailing future.

I hope your right, I'm in the works for turning sultrymilf.com into a tgp.

[Dravyk]

Just wanted to add or clarify .... when I said "MILF" am thinking of 40+. I am in no way thinking of MILF as 18 year old Mommys, which some sites seem to be portraying. That's a teen, not a MILF.

And (on the other hand) when thinking over-40 or even over-35, am thinking on the younger end, Angelina Jolie or Terri Hatcher. For Fifties the hot young looking Madonna or Kim Cattrell types. Maybe even the hot Susan Sarandon (now 62, btw) type on the higher end of the scale.

Also am NOT thinking of .... Richie Cunningham's mom naked, aka the mature style where they look their age, weigh 150, the body is saggy and their boobs are scraping the ground. Which is more of the traditional "mature" niche.

Maybe 35-55 y.o. hotties is a better explanation?

[Dravyk]

Originally Posted by bluemoney

I hope your right, I'm in the works for turning sultrymilf.com into a tgp.

Yeah, Bluemoney, that's a very good example of what I'm talking about that site.

And that Michelle model fits in nicely in terms of what I meant by the Susan Sarandon type too. Nice job!

[Dravyk]

And duh ... how ever could I forget Carol Cox? An obvious choice.

[DannyCox]

Speaking about niches and mature, one of our better converting sites is http://www.fannysnet.com/ She does just amazing in Europe.

We have a couple of front ends for Carol to take advantage of the "Cougar" niche (only her and young guys) and the "MILF" niche.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by Dravyk

Between Madonna being one hot 50 year old, the whole Palin thing, the thing now with Cougars ... plus you're going to have older guys out of jobs who will still be spending money as they'll have more time on their (pun) hands ... I think the MILF niche is a strong one now and in the future.

So yeah, if all porn niches were stocks, I'd put money on MILF (Nasdeq symbol) to be the one do best for the prevailing future.

DOS TIP
A very popular niche in VOD is COUGARS.... if you read you AEBN webmaster news some kind soul up there explained the niche something like this ...

Cougar Content 09.25.08
Everyone is familiar with the MILF genre featuring the hot moms that fuel so many people's fire, and the category has an offshoot that's gaining in popularity: cougars. Cougars aren't necessarily mothers, but they're older, experienced ladies who are sexually aggressive and who know exactly what they want: to have sex with as many young men as they can.

If your audience is one with which the MILF content does well, cougar content is a guaranteed winner. Like MILFs, it trades on the same timeless teenage fantasies, but with its own distinctive edge that pushes all the right buttons. Who wouldn't want to go a round with an older woman who wants to share all the advantages of her years of experience?

With its recent focus in mainstream culture, cougars as a category is extremely popular at the moment. Don't miss out on a chance to promote it!

Here are a few galleries if you'd like to give cougar content a try:

Mother Load 4 by Zero Tolerance
Get Your Linking Code Here!

Non-Fat MILF Part 2 by Wicked Pictures
Get Your Linking Code Here!

Barely MILF: From Kittens to Cougars by Bad Seed
Get Your Linking Code Here!