Oil over $54 a barrel

[RawAlex]

Anyone seeing $60?

What about the US dollar? How much lower does it go before it really starts to hurt the US?

Alex

[Vick]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Oct 25 2004, 10:52 AM
Anyone seeing $60?

What about the US dollar? How much lower does it go before it really starts to hurt the US?

Alex

If Oil gets much higher and the dollar drops any lower we, the USA (greatest country in the world) will have to invade Canada, take over the country and make Canadians live by American ways

Don't you see that coming Alex?

We are a war nation, war is good for our economy and who would be easier to take over than Canada. We don't even have to leave home

ah ha ha ha ha

urpdance:

[Mike AI]

Vick, we are already defeating the French. Canada will be next.... ( though lets face it, Canada is already American-lite.)




Made in America — in France
Monday, October 25, 2004
By Catherine Donaldson-Evans
PHOTOS
•French Love U.S. Culture, Hate Its Government•Paris Perks Up
Moviegoers pack theaters to see the latest Hollywood blockbusters, sprawling strip malls loom at highway exits, low-fat foods line grocery shelves and minivans congest roadways.

Sounds like America, doesn't it? But guess what — it's France (search).

Despite the perception that the French are rude and scoff at American tourists, the country some Yanks love to hate apparently doesn’t return the bad feeling. Les Français continue to snap up, or at least reluctantly accept, all things américain.

"Every time I go back, I am astounded by how much more prevalent American culture is," said Roy Caldwell, a French professor at St. Lawrence University (search) in New York.

In France today, movie theaters show a barrage of Hollywood blockbusters ("Finding Nemo" was the top film there last year), and le télé is bombarded by reality shows, just like in America.

Traditional French treats like rich, creamy yogurts and decadent buttery biscuits are sandwiched on grocery shelves by saccharin-sweet, low-fat versions.

Huge, American-sized portions and meal-sized salads arrive on the table in some French brasseries. Pedestrians bump into fast-food joints around every corner — blamed for the très américain problem of obesity that has now gripped France, in spite of the "French paradox" of fatty foods and slim bodies that seemingly blessed people there for so long.


And even the staple breakfast of a croissant or pain au chocolat and a strong cup of café au lait has felt some heat as cereal, Starbucks lattes and even flavored coffees are giving the old standbys competition.

All this has led some Francophiles to proclaim a cultural shift.

"They're endorsing an American way of life," said Lysette Hall, a University of Delaware instructor from France.

And contrary to what one might assume, natives and France frequenters say Iraq-related tensions haven't turned the country's citizens into American-haters, the way some here have become contemptuous of the French.

"There is no anti-American feeling whatsoever — none," said Hall.

In fact, speculation has swirled that the influx of Americanisms is a deliberate effort by France to lure back the Yanks, whose tourism numbers dwindled because of Sept. 11 and French opposition to the war.

Visitors to the country will indeed notice the scenery along French highways is increasingly dotted with strip malls. In the fall, they might see ads for Halloween costumes and parties (France now celebrates the holiday), and there's even the occasional Thanksgiving turkey for sale at the butcher shop in November. In warmer weather, they could spot American-flag T-shirts and Bermuda shorts on men.

The blend of French and English known as "Franglais" is also still going strong, in spite of laws requiring ads with foreign expressions to include French translations and mandating 40 percent of songs played on the radio must be French tunes.

"English vocabulary is used where French words don't exist — like 'prime time' — and in the office," said journalist Juliette Souchon, 32, of Paris. "And it's very trendy to open a shop with an English name."

Lawsuits en masse, speed dating, SUVs, casual Fridays and rooming with friends à la "Friends" are also en vogue, not to mention the very American trend of mind-body medicine — which has caught on so much that it's the cover story of the current Le Nouvel Observateur, a French newsmagazine.

Many say the strong presence of American media has led to the rise in U.S. customs in France and the rest of Europe, like it or not.

"American culture has found a very powerful way of selling itself through TV series, music videos and movies," Souchon said. "French people are very ambivalent about all that. There’s a certain mistrust toward Americans and their culture that’s so intrusive, but it’s cool to talk or dress that way."

In other words, American entertainment, ubiquitous in France, has had the same seductive effect there as it has had here.

"American TV series are much more sexy: People are always beautiful and the sky is blue," said Souchon. "It's exotic and appealing."

But most France lovers aren't worried that the country will one day be usurped by Uncle Sam to become just another, smaller United States in the Old World.

"I don’t think there’s going to be that takeover," Caldwell said. "They’re still holding up pretty well."

[DM4UAGAIN]

well i live in Panama and at this moment i am paying 2.35 a gallon, its really hurting my economy

[JR]

Originally posted by DM4UAGAIN@Oct 25 2004, 10:52 AM
well i live in Panama and at this moment i am paying 2.35 a gallon, its really hurting my economy

Noriega, cartels, cocaine by the ton, money laundering, a military government/police state. Times were much better then.

[MissEve]

They are predicting an $840 million state budget surplus here if oil says at an average of $41 a barrel for the rest of the year!

Come home JR! lol

[Mike AI]

Originally posted by MissEve@Oct 25 2004, 03:38 PM
They are predicting an $840 million state budget surplus here if oil says at an average of $41 a barrel for the rest of the year!

Come home JR! lol

How is poker career going??

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by MissEve@Oct 25 2004, 03:38 PM
They are predicting an $840 million state budget surplus here if oil says at an average of $41 a barrel for the rest of the year!

Come home JR! lol

What's the projected tax-time distribution for each Alaska citizen this year?

[MissEve]

Mike ..... poker is fun but I would definitely make more money if I actually WORKED!

Colin....do you mean the Permanent Fund Dividend? They came out last Wed at 919.84. The largest was in 2000, $1,963.86

http://www.apfc.org/alaska/dividendprgrm.cfm

[MissEve]

The Permanent Fund owns real estate everywhere including a biz park in Orlando, lol! Interesting what oil revenue buys.


http://www.apfc.org/investments/property.cfm?id=4&s=3

[Mike AI]

Originally posted by MissEve@Oct 25 2004, 04:50 PM
The Permanent Fund owns real estate everywhere including a biz park in Orlando, lol! Interesting what oil revenue buys.


http://www.apfc.org/investments/property.cfm?id=4&s=3

Very impressive setup. Too bad other States are not as wise....

[Peaches]

Esa, do you have to be part Indian or anything to get that? Or is anyone who's a legal resident eligible?

[Mike AI]

Peaches, planning on moving??

[MissEve]

Peaches, you have to be an AK resident for only one year to qualify!

Mike, it really is amazing that they made this program work so successfully.

[Peaches]

Originally posted by Mike AI@Oct 25 2004, 06:23 PM
Peaches, planning on moving??

Always!

I would actually love to visit Alaska - it's on "the list"

Thanks, Esa - I didn't know you only had to live there such a short period of time!

[Rolo]

Originally posted by Mike AI@Oct 25 2004, 08:08 AM
"American TV series are much more sexy: People are always beautiful and the sky is blue," said Souchon. "It's exotic and appealing."

I have to disagree - I have seen some very hot french tv series

[wig]

Alex, it is truly interesting to me that when the question comes up it is usually when the market is approaching a decision point. It reinforces the counter intuitiveness that markets create.

Oil is still (obviously) in a powerful bull market. Ironically, we are also within the range of the most important cycle alignment for the energy sector in 2004 (mid Oct - mid Nov)

I would not be surprised to see 56.90/CLZ hit in Oct, with potentially higher prices into the first half of November.

The fact that we are rallying into this time frame suggests that it will be a cycle high. This high could be the most significant one we have seen in a while, giving some relief to energy prices over the ensuing 2-4 months.

Diesel is $2.20 here and it costs me $100 to fill up.

[Peaches]

Originally posted by wig@Oct 25 2004, 07:26 PM
Diesel is $2.20 here and it costs me $100 to fill up.

I saw that the other day - what's with that? Diesel's always been less than standard unleaded - why is it higher now?

(BTW, it's $2.09 in Chatsworth and if you get crazy, there's a fun 4WD (car only) road off Ft. Mountain I found the other day )

[Rolo]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Oct 25 2004, 07:52 AM
Anyone seeing $60?

What about the US dollar? How much lower does it go before it really starts to hurt the US?

$60/barrel is very likely, since there have not been any meaningful sell-off so far. Bush & Co. have said they will not use the "Strategic Petroleum Reserve" (SPR) to lower prices, so its still up to the market to find the price.

But actual I think the price could go above $60, since the market keeps thinking that the oil supply is on a knife's edge - and with multiple areas where things can go wrong, then it just add to the possibility that something will go wrong (prehaps its just murphys law):

- terror in Iraq
- terror in Saudi Arabia
- terror in Russia
- rebels in Nigeria
- social unrest in Venezuela
etc.

Fortuantly we have not reached the "oil peak" yet, so if the above situations are controlled, then within a "foreseeable future" the price of oil might be lower. Just look at what events in the past have done to the price of oil



The US dollar which keeps loosing value will be a problem for US tax payers, because investors will flee the US markets - ex. in the last 14 days the US dollars have lost almost 4% value to the Euros - thats alot of money in a very short time, and it will keep investors away, which again will mean the US trade deficit will keep increasing. Also longterm a weak US dollar might cause more and more of the world´s oil trade to be in Euros, which could cause US tax payers too wake up with economic hangovers, which will take decades to cure :-((((

[Rolo]

Just wondering if anyone have been investing in mideast stock markets?

When the dollar started to lose value to some currencies, and with tighter money control in the US, then a few of the mideast stock markets rose with double digits % in a very short period (1-2 years).

Now with the higher oil price, and unstable US dollar, then there might be another climb.

Anyone seen some good numbers?

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by MissEve@Oct 25 2004, 04:43 PM


Colin....do you mean the Permanent Fund Dividend?

Yeah, I did. Thanks :-)

[RawAlex]

I was sort of thinking that the higher oil price combined with the lower US dollar would have to be a double hit. I am nto sure oil has gone up as much as the dollar has gone down the last couple of weeks. It has some stunning effects on the prices of imported goods, and it will increase pressure for large interest rate hikes in the US, which could slow the economy dramatically. The gap in prime interest rates between Canada and the US has never been higher (as a percentage). The Canadian dollar against the US have been a very strong and steady climb in the last 18 months. 61 cents to 82 cents in short order.

Alex

[Rolo]

Regardless of who takes the white house after the election, someone will have to look at the deficits - and that could lead the US economy to tighten its belt. This can be done by higher taxes, higher interest rates, or by devaluation of the US dollar... or prehaps all of them.
The idea that the US can "bake more cake" to solve the deficits will not happende with any of the current presidential candidates - their combined vision for the future is as good as a blind mole.

The fear of devaluation is very real, and it could lead to high selloff of US investments, stocks, bonds, currencies. Gold will keep rising, and so will other currencies such as swiss franc.

I REALLY hope that whoever will be president will surprise the world and make a happy ending after his 4 years as President.

But it will still be better to live in the free western world vs. some middle east fundamentalist hell hole, so its not all bad

[wig]

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