First of all, I think you could make the arguement that the decision of the Spanish electorate was governed as much by the bungling way the Spanish Government attempted to deflect the blame away from al Qaida and onto ETA, as it was to the bombing itself.
Second, you left off the "That's a great question, Colin" (otherwise known as the "How the Fuck Do I know") option.
It would kinda blow the whole "Bush has made America safer from terrorists" arguement. Still in all, I think that the results of a major terrorist attack between now and the election would probably HELP Bush more than hurt him.
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