What is the cause of global warming?

Almighty Colin · 06-23-2003

Abstract of a recent article found at AIP Bulletin

Solar Flares and Global Warming

A recent study by researchers at Duke University and the Army Research Office has found new evidence of a link between solar flare activity and the earth's temperature. The work is another contribution to the ongoing debate over global warming and its causes. A strong link between solar flares and our climate, if it exists, could override the influence humans have on the temperature of our environment. One of the challenges of determining the connection between solar flare activity and the atmosphere stems from the fact that the motion of the air that blankets our planet is turbulent and complex. A sudden burst of solar activity would, in effect, be smeared out by moving air and its interaction with the earth's surface. Any temperature increase caused by a given period of solar flare activity would be difficult to determine, at best. Rather than focus on such challenging one-to-one correlations, the new study compares the form of the statistical fluctuations in solar flare activity with the form of the statistical fluctuations of the earth's temperature. The researchers (contact: Bruce J. West, 919-549-4257) explain that solar flare activity can be characterized by a type of statistics described by a Levy distribution, which is generated by a "Levy-walk." (Many natural phenomena, from foraging patterns of spider monkeys to complex hydrodynamic flows, are well described by Levy walks, although the coefficients in the relevant equations typically vary from one phenomenon to another. See Update 510-3 for one example.) Analyses of global and local temperature fluctuations are also well described by a Levy-walk. In fact, a comparison of the mathematical coefficients that describe the fluctuations suggest to the researchers that the atmosphere directly inherits its temperature fluctuations from the variation in solar flare activity. Unless some other underlying cause is responsible for the unlikely correspondence between solar flares and the earth's temperature, the research suggests that for the large part variations in global temperatures are beyond our control and are instead at the mercy of the sun's activity. (Nicola Scafetta and Bruce J. West, Physical Review Letters, 20 June 2003)

Timon · 06-23-2003

Where's the "my big fat suv" option?? :-(

Almighty Colin · 06-23-2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Timon@Jun 23 2003, 09:27 AM
Where's the "my big fat suv" option?? :-(

<-- Right there ;-)

Last edited by Colin at Jun 23 2003, 09:33 AM

Almighty Colin · 06-23-2003

Timon,

I notice you voted ;-) Cow flatulence = 1

Mike AI · 06-23-2003

I think there are natural fluctuations of the earth for the most paart, and things we as humans really cannot control. OF course we should work on keeping polution down, but I do not think we as humans are changing the temperature.... at least to substntial degree....

JR · 06-23-2003

it was not too long ago that we were worried about global cooling.

Almighty Colin · 06-23-2003

Quote:

Originally posted by JR@Jun 23 2003, 09:40 AM
it was not too long ago that we were worried about global cooling.

True. I have an old weather book (c. 1977) and a 1970's essay by Isaac Asimov that both talk about how pollutants will block the sun's rays and hence cool the planet.

That there are natural fluctuations is quite evident. The ice age of just 10,000 years ago are evidence enough of that.

Surely CO2 emissions are warming the planet. I don't think anyone knows to what degree or whether it is a real problem or not.

Seems to me that computer simulations will be the best way forward. Most computer simulations that try to model such things have made very poor predictions so far - often overpredicting the temperature rise. I think until we at least get that far we're in the "Don't know" category. Trying to model a system as complex as the Earth's long-term climate is no short order. There are incredible resources being devoted to the Earth's climatology and it is a quite popular subject.

Buff · 06-23-2003

The Earth is still cooling -- we're in for another ice age.

06-23-2003	#1
Almighty Colin Members Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 8,059	Abstract of a recent article found at AIP Bulletin Solar Flares and Global Warming A recent study by researchers at Duke University and the Army Research Office has found new evidence of a link between solar flare activity and the earth's temperature. The work is another contribution to the ongoing debate over global warming and its causes. A strong link between solar flares and our climate, if it exists, could override the influence humans have on the temperature of our environment. One of the challenges of determining the connection between solar flare activity and the atmosphere stems from the fact that the motion of the air that blankets our planet is turbulent and complex. A sudden burst of solar activity would, in effect, be smeared out by moving air and its interaction with the earth's surface. Any temperature increase caused by a given period of solar flare activity would be difficult to determine, at best. Rather than focus on such challenging one-to-one correlations, the new study compares the form of the statistical fluctuations in solar flare activity with the form of the statistical fluctuations of the earth's temperature. The researchers (contact: Bruce J. West, 919-549-4257) explain that solar flare activity can be characterized by a type of statistics described by a Levy distribution, which is generated by a "Levy-walk." (Many natural phenomena, from foraging patterns of spider monkeys to complex hydrodynamic flows, are well described by Levy walks, although the coefficients in the relevant equations typically vary from one phenomenon to another. See Update 510-3 for one example.) Analyses of global and local temperature fluctuations are also well described by a Levy-walk. In fact, a comparison of the mathematical coefficients that describe the fluctuations suggest to the researchers that the atmosphere directly inherits its temperature fluctuations from the variation in solar flare activity. Unless some other underlying cause is responsible for the unlikely correspondence between solar flares and the earth's temperature, the research suggests that for the large part variations in global temperatures are beyond our control and are instead at the mercy of the sun's activity. (Nicola Scafetta and Bruce J. West, Physical Review Letters, 20 June 2003) __________________ Almighty Content. Your one stop for live content. Secret Friends, LATINA Secret Friends , My Cam Friends

06-23-2003	#4
Almighty Colin Members Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 8,059	Timon, I notice you voted ;-) Cow flatulence = 1 __________________ Almighty Content. Your one stop for live content. Secret Friends, LATINA Secret Friends , My Cam Friends

06-23-2003	#5
Mike AI Administrator Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 11,618	I think there are natural fluctuations of the earth for the most paart, and things we as humans really cannot control. OF course we should work on keeping polution down, but I do not think we as humans are changing the temperature.... at least to substntial degree.... __________________ Make big money on your Domains! Why wait 40 days to get paid with the other guys? Parked.com pays the most for your traffic, and cuts checks twice a month!

06-23-2003	#6
JR Members The global leader in pay-per-view AEBN Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: in my chair Posts: 3,320	it was not too long ago that we were worried about global cooling. __________________

06-23-2003	#8
Buff Members Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 1,561	The Earth is still cooling -- we're in for another ice age. __________________

06-23-2003	#2
Timon Hospitality Supervisor Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 2,338	Where's the "my big fat suv" option?? :-(