SARS outbreak

[Almighty Colin]

We need a scarier name for this virus. SARS just doesn't cut it.

Date Cases Deaths

3/31 1622 58
3/29 1550 54
3/28 1485 53
3/27 1408 53
3/26 1323 49
3/25 487 17
3/24 456 17
3/22 386 11
3/21 350 10
3/20 306 10
3/19 264 9
3/18 219 4
3/17 167 4

I assume the discontinuity on 3/26 is due to information flow and not a spike. No idea. Growing a little over 4% per day compounded this week. At that rate, there would be about 5500 cases by the end of the month. Surely nature won't cooperate with that but which way though?

3.5% of reported cases have died.



Last edited by Colin at Apr 1 2003, 08:11 AM

[Forest]

Capt trips

lets move to Bolder co. NOW!!!

Nick can head to Vegas

[Almighty Colin]

I think most of us would be on Team Vegas. Sykkboy is already waiting there for us.



Last edited by Colin at Apr 1 2003, 08:41 AM

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by Forest@Apr 1 2003, 08:15 AM
Capt trips

lets move to Bolder co. NOW!!!

Nick can head to Vegas

I know what Opranoi is missing...

Mother Abigale
;_)))

[Forest]

are we automarically going to vegas cause we are porn scum?

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Forest@Apr 1 2003, 10:03 AM
are we automarically going to vegas cause we are porn scum?

Yes.

The truth shall set you free.

[Almighty Colin]

4/1 1804 62

"Hong Kong, which has been hit hard, has established quarantine camps in an effort to try to contain the spread of the disease."

[gigi]

I got a letter home from my kids school yestserday about SARS.

It basically states that they have everything under control and that if a student or staff returns from abroad, they are fine as long as they hadn't been in contact with a person with SARS and they were welcome to attend school.

A reminder of good personal hygiene comes next, then a notice that if anything changes they will inform us.

This scares me. For them to send home a notice makes me think there are staff/students who have recently returned from Asia....sigh

[Mike AI]

SARS is a major threat, and I do not think it will be the last....

In the past, humans were wiped out by disease - 1 in 4 1 in 7 croaking.... modern medicine has this under control, but we may just be creating super strains....

Fuck you guys, I am going to Colorodo - someone needs to sell porn to the good people!!

[Almighty Colin]

Passengers on flight from Tokyo to CA with SARS symptoms are being quarantined.

[Almighty Colin]

The flu of 1918 had a mortality rate of 2.5%, less than the current mortality rate of SARS.

http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/im...ges/flumask.jpg



Last edited by Colin at Apr 1 2003, 03:18 PM

[Almighty Colin]

Date Cases Deaths
4/2 2223 78 *
4/1 1804 62
3/31 1622 58
3/29 1550 54
3/28 1485 53
3/27 1408 53
3/26 1323 49
3/25 487 17
3/24 456 17
3/22 386 11
3/21 350 10
3/20 306 10
3/19 264 9
3/18 219 4
3/17 167 4

*Some older cases were added to reflect a November,2002 origin.

[Forest]

Thats it

Im going to take my dog and head west

see you in Bolder

I HATE vegas

LOL

[Shann]

I can't remember how many reported deaths and cases in Toronto, but we have over 2000 people that are quarantined, and I'm keeping my daughter home from school. People are walking around downtown with masks on, hospitals have stopped seeing regular patients.... it's all bad.

A few people in one family died that came over from Hong Kong.

More reasons for me to stay inside! lol

[Torone]

Houston has 3 cases...no deaths. 3.5% isn't a very high rate. More dangerous to be a truck driver here.



Last edited by Torone at Apr 3 2003, 06:09 AM

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Torone@Apr 3 2003, 06:09 AM
3.5% isn't a very high rate.

1918 flu was 2.5% mortality rate and killed 20-100 million people. Range is wide because many countries didn't participate in sharing such numbers. 3.5% is high when it spreads like the common cold. Some of those that have it will still die so the rate is actually higher.

4% a day isn't a very high rate but what if there is a "tipping poinr"? You can't quarantine everyone.

I'm placing NO BETS but this is precisely the kind of virus one would worry about. I don't know about you but if 1 in 30 people that contracted the common cold last year died, I would know someone that died from it.

Oh, yeah. 1918 flu started fast, then waned, then came back with a vengeance the next fall.

Oh, yeah. Don't compare everything to the 1918 flu. It's not.

[Almighty Colin]

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/n...ews/5542794.htm

CDC has test to confirm mystery illness
By DANIEL YEE
Associated Press

ATLANTA - U.S. health officials said Wednesday they now have a test to determine whether coughing, feverish patients have the mystery illness from Asia.

The new antibody test isn't perfected enough to be given to doctors yet, but it is being used to help state health departments sort out whether they have cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said they will soon be giving test results in suspected SARS cases to state health officials. The test detects the new form of the coronavirus, which CDC officials say they are "90 percent" sure causes SARS.

Doctors in the United States suspect that 85 people - nearly all of them having recently traveled to SARS-affected areas in Asia - have the illness, which has killed 78 people around the world. But physicians cannot be sure if their patients have SARS or other flu-like illnesses. This test will help confirm SARS cases, CDC Director Dr. Julie Gerberding said Wednesday.

"If a patient has an antibody response to the new coronavirus, it may be very strong evidence of an association with SARS," she said. "It's a useful tool - what we are seeing so far are people who have the strongest epidemiological link to SARS are turning out to have positive tests."

The CDC is working to verify the accuracy of the test by checking for the antibody in people who are not suspected to have SARS. Scientists are also using the test to compare the number of suspected SARS patients who have developed the antibody versus patients who haven't.

"If (coronavirus) is truly the cause, we figure most of the people with the condition will have a positive test," Gerberding said.

[Almighty Colin]

Date Cases Deaths
4/3 2270 79
4/2 2223 78 *
4/1 1804 62
3/31 1622 58
3/29 1550 54
3/28 1485 53
3/27 1408 53
3/26 1323 49
3/25 487 17
3/24 456 17
3/22 386 11
3/21 350 10
3/20 306 10
3/19 264 9
3/18 219 4
3/17 167 4

[Anthony]

Boulder has really nice skiing! Plus y'all gonna need farmers! LOL

[Forest]

Originally posted by Anthony@Apr 3 2003, 12:02 PM
Boulder has really nice skiing! Plus y'all gonna need farmers! LOL

I know how to grow bud
:P

[Anthony]

Quote:

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Originally posted by Forest+Apr 3 2003, 12:14 PM-->

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