Any predictions for 2009?

[Hell Puppy]

I think the economy gets worse before it gets better.

I think our new President will face an international challenge to go along with his homeland economic problems.

I expect all of this to continue to impact adult industry. Traffic will continue to skyrocket to sites willing to give a lot away, conversions will continue to plunge.

I think we'll see at least one major processing challenge as a result of the financial industry being squeezed.

Exodus and consolidation will continue.

Looks to be a bad year for affiliate reps and the like unfortunately. I see lots of businesses having to scale back and conserve cache. ROI will be scrutinized more closely.

Affiliate reps likely have to become affiliates themselves. I see more traffic generation coming in house.

Show attendance likely takes a beating. 200 attendees will be a big show. With lack of sponsor dollars, 4-5 shows may fold.

Flash video and silverlight come of age in adult.

[RawAlex]

Wow, major league D&G. You must have a heck of a hangover from last night!

[Robert]

2009 will be the year we finally have a zombie outbreak.

[tony404]

Im going to jump off the roof now. lol

[RawAlex]

Actually, I want to take a kick at this one.

My most major prediction for 2009 is the collapse of the big time payout affiliate programs. It is a bit of a combination of things that is going to bring this on, not any one thing.

Obviously, the Mastercard move on pre-checked cross sales (or any cross sales for that matter) could lead to Visa doing the same. That would eliminate part of the scourge of the porn world right now, companies burning customers for all they are worth. The chargeback rates might get them before the regs do, but in my mind it is doubtful the $100 per signup guys will be able to last it out.

The second part is the whole AFF situation. The IPO is a hail mary of all hail marys, and their opening of the books for the IPO shows that they have been routinely losing about $20-$30 per signup, on an average payout of somewhere around $70 or so over the last couple of years (consider that some of the signups are through Zango and ad buys, not their affiliate program). Everyone of their direct competitors nows knows that AFF has been losing money at a pretty fast pace (100 million in 3 years) and that it cannot continue. Either the IPO won't come off and AFF will be decimated, or the IPO will work, and shareholder pressure (or a change of controlling ownership) will force them to drop their per signup payouts to levels where the program is profitable. As soon as one cam / dating program blinks, they all will, because you have to assume that most of them are losing their asses trying to keep up with the high payouts.

The indirect result of this is major pain for the high traffic tube sites. Many of them are entirely dependant on high payout programs to make them enough money to keep going. Already some of them are suffering because cheap hosts like Alphared have gone out of business, raising their costs of bandwidth (for those who don't know, many of the tube sites are hosted at good places, but in turn host and serve their movie files from some of the crappiest, cheapest, nastiest hosts on the planet). So a squeeze between higher costs on the bottom and lower payouts on the top may in fact make their lives more miserable than before. When your entire business is spending $1 to make $1.10 and your expenses go up 20% and your revenue drops 50%, well, shit ain't working.

I also see 2009 at a year with great potential for he rebirth of solid well managed affiliate programs. Many of the big players have ground to a halt, victims of the tubes and their own greed, and many of the midline programs that were suffering in 2007 were bought out or closed in 2008. With the potential of cheaper labor costs (unemployment leads to more pussy for porn) and a fairly wide open market place for new concepts, I think 2009 will be a year that will see a weird sort of regrowth in the market. With 2257 hopefully settling down and third party record keepers being once again acceptable, I think that the real amateur market may once again rise up and get back to it.

All those programs that are caught in the cross sale web, creating off shore billing entities and trading customer info are in for a shock. They will likely be the ones on the outside looking in, or potentially on the inside looking at bars - as most of them haven't considered the implications of European and Canadian privacy laws.

Oh yeah, 2009 is the year that some lucky surfers will get a real touch! Then they will be hooked.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

Oh yeah, 2009 is the year that some lucky surfers will get a real touch! Then they will be hooked.

What little exposure I have gotten with this device and peoples reaction has been pretty damn positive.

This device taps in to the core of the desired end result for any adult entertainmentan that is to get the viewer off.

The closest thing so far is the fleshlight and based on its sales and popularity I would say that RealTouch could way more surpass this demand.

Keep in mind you are looking at a novelty device that has a recurring revenue stream by design.

In the coming weeks you will hear me talk a lot more about how this device is going to end up positioned in the business and some of the conclusions I have about it.

I can also tell you I believe that whats left of the TGP market will be replaced by an incredible amount of growth in the Tube market. For us oldie moldies in this biz.... think how Shaven Ferret was able to expand the TGP market and kill off the PicPosts a long time ago.

I think consolidation continues which for reasons youve seen in prior posts is a good thing.

I see billing becoming a major issue for all of us.

I see a rebirth in webcams as they become the new personals and entertainment hybrid of sorts.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by gonzo

What little exposure I have gotten with this device and peoples reaction has been pretty damn positive.

This device taps in to the core of the desired end result for any adult entertainmentan that is to get the viewer off.

The closest thing so far is the fleshlight and based on its sales and popularity I would say that RealTouch could way more surpass this demand.

Keep in mind you are looking at a novelty device that has a recurring revenue stream by design.

In the coming weeks you will hear me talk a lot more about how this device is going to end up positioned in the business and some of the conclusions I have about it.

I can also tell you I believe that whats left of the TGP market will be replaced by an incredible amount of growth in the Tube market. For us oldie moldies in this biz.... think how Shaven Ferret was able to expand the TGP market and kill off the PicPosts a long time ago.

I think consolidation continues which for reasons youve seen in prior posts is a good thing.

I see billing becoming a major issue for all of us.

I see a rebirth in webcams as they become the new personals and entertainment hybrid of sorts.

I cant see tubes replacing tgp's. I still do very well with tgp's and I doubt im the only one. I have submitted to legal tubes and first I got to give them half and secondly they dont convert as well. Also for tubes to over take tgps someone has to make a submitter.
Also I loved Shaven Ferrets pic post submitter, I was very sad when it was no more.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by tony404

I cant see tubes replacing tgp's. I still do very well with tgp's and I doubt im the only one. I have submitted to legal tubes and first I got to give them half and secondly they dont convert as well. Also for tubes to over take tgps someone has to make a submitter.
Also I loved Shaven Ferrets pic post submitter, I was very sad when it was no more.

Ill lend you my glasses in a week or two and you will see.
Your thinking the old game.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by gonzo

Ill lend you my glasses in a week or two and you will see.
Your thinking the old game.

Considering there isnt a legal tube that makes any real money or has any real traffic to speak of. I cant see it. They keep giving full scenes for traffic the buyer pool will get smaller and smaller.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

Actually, I want to take a kick at this one.

Oh yeah, 2009 is the year that some lucky surfers will get a real touch! Then they will be hooked.

Great post Alex.

The problem is for many years people thought traffic was the answer. The problem was the way they got it and the cost of getting it. Tube sites that can't afford their BW are going to be hit in 2009. As more businesses cut back some of the hosting companies running on a shoe string will be closing or putting up their costs.

With less people with less money to spend more will be going to Tube sites and less will be buying. Traffic for many is like the French Kings, something they can't afford and the solution is the guillotine. (My attempt at humour.)

However the answer is not better affiliate programs. It's better members areas. Until this industry wakes up to the fact that a Tube site giving away a product costing them cents, we will not be able to sell our products for dollars. To support our cost of getting 1 buyer in 1,000 surfers to sign up.

We need a product 1 in 100 will buy and more money spent on inside a members area than we currently do.

[spoggy2629]

If you never had a hang over before, you will have now :-)

[Toby]

Some interesting thoughts so far. I think 2009 is going to be a mixed bag. Survival will be the name of the game for vast majority. There will be a fair number of big losers and a much smaller number of big winners. Whether it's a boom, bust or something in-between will depend on where you're currently postioned and just how "stuck" you are in that position.

There's going to be a great deal of change in 2009. The way content is being delivered will continue to evolve. Switch to the new too early and you lose your existing user base. Jump too late and your user base has already left. Gracefully being able to deliver by both old and new methods is usually very difficult to pull off.

A couple more specific predictions:
• HUGE turnover in "part time" webmasters, not that it hasn't been high all along, but turnover will be even higher. Many that have been in the biz drop out as their porn income significantly declines. Others that have lost jobs enter the biz thinking they can make money selling porn, only to drop out after a few months.
• The FriendFinder IPO fails miserably. AFF itself survives, most likely sold off as part of a restructuring or bankruptcy. Major changes to it's existing business strategies in order to make it profitable.

[Toby]

The solution to tubes is really pretty simple in concept. Offer a product that the tubes can't. Yes, easier said than done, but that product can take many forms.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by Toby

The solution to tubes is really pretty simple in concept. Offer a product that the tubes can't. Yes, easier said than done, but that product can take many forms.

http://www.oprano.com/msgboard/showthread.php?t=92831

[RawAlex]

Tubes and torrents are an issue. Pre-checked cross sales are another.

The PCCS are most obviously the worst because they are a negative against using credit cards. They burn the people willing to pay for porn, and they burn people willing to use their credit cards online, which is a pretty damn small number as it is. IMHO, the PCCS are something that the industry as a whole should have control over, but we do not.

The TTFS (Tubes Torrents and File Sharers) are more of a problem like rust or soil erosion. It isn't directly a negative to our business specifically, but if not carefully monitors and tended, it can do a lot of harm. The biggest harm in my mind comes from Google SERPs. Example, searching for the Cumfiesta episode featuring celeste:

http://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&sa...G=Search&meta=

Out of the top 10, 7 or 8 are either free forums, file sharing, torrents, or tubes. Probably 90% of the potential searchers will never be sent anywhere near a credit card screen for this material.

What is worse is that this is fixable problem. Google accepts DMCA notices. The owners of the material just have to go do some simple searches, make a list of sites, and send the notices. The net result would be more search traffic going to their sites (or at least to affiliate sites) and less going to theives.

Like I said, it's an erosion, it takes away the underlying support, until one day the surface snaps.

[RawAlex]

DRM failed. It is too cumbersome and too overbearing, and punishes the good customers and doesn't really defeat the bad ones (who will just get the content anyway).

The only way to lock the content up enough hurts the business more than anything - so you have to be proactive about chasing thieves. 2009 will be the year content producers wake up and realize that if they don't protect their content, it has no value - and at that point, the entire porn business no longer has a financial leg to stand on.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

DRM failed. It is too cumbersome and too overbearing, and punishes the good customers and doesn't really defeat the bad ones (who will just get the content anyway).

The only way to lock the content up enough hurts the business more than anything - so you have to be proactive about chasing thieves. 2009 will be the year content producers wake up and realize that if they don't protect their content, it has no value - and at that point, the entire porn business no longer has a financial leg to stand on.

Fuck thats it Im going back to work and tell them to shut it down.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

DRM failed. It is too cumbersome and too overbearing, and punishes the good customers and doesn't really defeat the bad ones (who will just get the content anyway).

The only way to lock the content up enough hurts the business more than anything - so you have to be proactive about chasing thieves. 2009 will be the year content producers wake up and realize that if they don't protect their content, it has no value - and at that point, the entire porn business no longer has a financial leg to stand on.

Locking down content will not stop Tubes getting it for free.
If we actually do achieve the impossible, Tubes will buy DVDs and encode from them. Stop thinking it's surfers ripping sites and putting up full scenes. It's the Tube sites. Most websites watermark videos, most DVD companies do not. Go check the major full length Tubes.

The best way of doing it is to limit the amount a member can download in a day and block auto downloaders and tell him why. Most members understand what Tubes and pirates are doing to the industry and the effect on their entertainment. Let's not demonise the members, these guys are the solution not the problem.

As for content having value. I chuckled over that one. I'm on the receiving end of the content buying chain and know exactly what value many sites put on content. Most content on most sites is not worth protecting.

So let's really dream, possibly under the influence of some blow, and imagine a world where most sites lock down their content so no one can steal it and DVDs are encoded so no one can rip them. I did say we were dreaming. So what would be the results of this dream?

Sites like Brazzers would give content to Tubes for free.

Whoops!!!!!

As for chasing thieves, that made me laugh. You have to prove their stealing in the first place. Then go to where they are to find them, then take them to court, then take the company that replaces them to court in the country they are in. Please if the record industry could not do it why do you think we can?

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

The only way to lock the content up enough hurts the business more than anything - so you have to be proactive about chasing thieves. 2009 will be the year content producers wake up and realize that if they don't protect their content, it has no value - and at that point, the entire porn business no longer has a financial leg to stand on.

OK I mis understood what you meant by protecting content. You still miss the point on protecting and chasing thieves. It's not a viable option. Unless affiliates want to cut their commission to 10% to pay the lawyers in all the countries the Tubes sites are run from.

OK maybe not 10% but the money to pay the lawyers has to come from somewhere. Are you going to put some in the kitty?

Got another unworkable solution.

[RawAlex]

Paul, I don't for a moment assume that a tube site is "user submitted" anymore than I think that the millions of profiles on AFF are real.

My prediction for 2009 is that you will continue to just miss the point.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

My prediction for 2009 is that you will continue to just miss the point.

Guess that makes two of us.

There are DVDs with porn. Plus companies who will chase the short term dollar and not lock down content, companies with content that simply is not worth locking down, companies selling up for a fraction of what the content is worth and companies like Brazzers who will give them all the content they need.

So why do you think locking down content will be possible and a solution?

Would love an explanation how the impossible is possible.

I suppose it's about as possible as a legal solution and that gets a lot of people missing the point as well.

[RawAlex]

Paul, you didn't pay attention - I didn't suggest locking down content as a solution. Please go back and re-read and try again.

[gonzo]

I predict you tube opponents are about to have a bad week.

[RawAlex]

Paul, again, you are missing the point - it isn't about chasing after the thieves directly either. I swear you never read past the first sentence of any post.

My thought is pretty simple - work with major traffic sources (the SEs) to eliminate the torrent and illegal tube sites from the SERPs. That would dramatically shift traffic back to the programs and away from those sites using material illegally.

You don't need lawyers to do the work either. Heck, you could do it yourself for your own sites.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

Paul, again, you are missing the point - it isn't about chasing after the thieves directly either. I swear you never read past the first sentence of any post.

My thought is pretty simple - work with major traffic sources (the SEs) to eliminate the torrent and illegal tube sites from the SERPs. That would dramatically shift traffic back to the programs and away from those sites using material illegally.

You don't need lawyers to do the work either. Heck, you could do it yourself for your own sites.

Sorry I did not realise you were serious about this.

The biggest harm in my mind comes from Google SERPs. Example, searching for the Cumfiesta episode featuring celeste:

Here's a prediction for 2009.

The key to most anti tube posts and ideas is to stop the surfer having that option. Those who think the key is to force the surfer to buy, deny him access to what he prefers will find out how WRONG they are. It did not work in the past, does not work now and will not work in the future. So long as the options exist.

If a guy who will not spend on porn can't find the content he wants on Google he will find it another way. He's probably already found the sites he needs, your solution while being a good back up plan is not the solution. The only solution is to make paysites worth joining and free sites unprofitable.

In 2009 we need to get away from the belief that traffic is the most important thing. It never was and not going to be in the future. Sales are the most important thing and always will be. Everyone has learned that increasing sales does not always lead to an increase in sales. Sometimes it leads to a drop in ratios.

So long as the option to not pay for content competes with the option to pay free sites giving away will take customers away. We need to target just those people and get them back to buying because they want to. Not because they have to.

Here's an idea for you Alex. You're not allowed to send a DMCA on others content unless authorised. What you can do is 2-3 times a day do a search on Google for sites like Cum Fiesta and send an email to the person they authorise with all the info and in the form of a DMCA. Once you and they see the results of this plan you can start a sideline and charge for the service.

We will see if it brings down free sites.

[Toby]

In interesting strategy to combat P2P.

http://www.xbiz.com/news/all/103223

[miz_wright]

1)

Originally Posted by Toby

The solution to tubes is really pretty simple in concept. Offer a product that the tubes can't. Yes, easier said than done, but that product can take many forms.

2)

Originally Posted by Toby

In interesting strategy to combat P2P.

http://www.xbiz.com/news/all/103223

1) Heee. Indeed. Alternatively, harness the power of them in the same way TGP/ MGPs were harnessed, and put them to work FOR you. Piracy is going to happen - always has, always will, whether on the ocean or the new age of surfing - and it's never, ever been able to be fully combated. So harness it or make it an uncrossable barrier.

2) I expect to see a lot more of these types of services cropping up. I know of at least one company who employs a "flood-to-annoyance" strategy on torrents and tubes, with trash files.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by Toby

In interesting strategy to combat P2P.

http://www.xbiz.com/news/all/103223

I missed this and wish I had not. It will be interesting to see if it works. I was posting that we could be doing this on the Zoo months ago. I think these guys might be a revenue stream we could be exploit. We don't have the image problem like the record industry.

[RawAlex]

Again Paul, all that, and you just didn't read what I posted.

I predict for 2009 you still won't get a clue.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

Again Paul, all that, and you just didn't read what I posted.

I predict for 2009 you still won't get a clue.

Want to point out what I got wrong then?

My thought is pretty simple - work with major traffic sources (the SEs) to eliminate the torrent and illegal tube sites from the SERPs. That would dramatically shift traffic back to the programs and away from those sites using material illegally.

You don't need lawyers to do the work either. Heck, you could do it yourself for your own sites.

Because I read it and thought it meant you think attacking Tubes via Google will close them down. I'm bloody sure you don't think getting people who are looking for free porn on a Tube site to come to my site instead is going to work. No please don't tell me that's your plan. Explain to us exactly what you think will work and maybe we will all do it. Trying to be vague and look clever is not a solution. I can't adopt a plan unless I know what it is. You did say I could do it on my sites.

Come up with something that works and I will support it. And that's the problem and the reason Tubes still exist. Trying to get Adult Internet companies and workers to act collectively is like herding cats.

[RawAlex]

Paul, again, you are really missing the point.

You are trying to find a black and white, 100% sure, total complete solution. The fact is that this is no perfect solution, nothing that will stop all file traders, nothing that will stop all illegal tubes, nothing that will stop carders, scammers, and theives. I am not in an way suggesting that this is possible.

Go to google. Search for your content under common terms that people come to your site on (specifically on the title of your sites or girls names on your sites is a good way to find them). If you see an illegal tube or torrent site with your content listed, linked, or otherwise provided, you are good to go. Note the listing, note the exact page, the name of the file, etc - and then send a DMCA to Google. Google has no option but to act to limit their liability, and they will remove those listings.

If the top 10 or top 20 for a site are all links that actually go to the site (or an affiliate promoting the site) then a significantly higher number of people searching for the site will actually find the site. If the top 10 is packed full of torrents and illegal tubes, then the majority of your SE traffic is going to them, not you.

Will it shut tube sites down? no. Will it stop torrents? no. But if your SE traffic goes up or the amount of affiliate traffic to your sites goes up, then your bottom line should improve. Figure 10% lost first page traffic for every listing in the top 10 that doesn't go to you, and then you know how much traffic is lost.

Better than that, it doesn't matter a single bit if anyone else in the industry does it, because nobody is searching for "paul markham teens" expecting to find "big cock teen addiction". It's all about improving your own part of the internet. The more people that sweep up in front of the their own door, the better the streets look, no?

Think past your nose.

[Paul Markham]

Sorry if I did not explain it properly. I do not think we will kill all piracy, just those who we think are doing damage.

Me I'm doing something I think will work to lessen the impact of Tubes if enough adopt it.

Your idea might work and I explained how you need to do something further than post on boards. If you really care and really thik it will work do it and show us. If you're just talking on a board continue as you are.

[gonzo]

Thanks for all the ideas guys.

Ill be on a panel Monday at Internext talking about the Future of Porn.

[EmporerEJ]

I think 2009 is going to be a great year for the industry.

[TheEnforcer]

My prediction for 2009

I'll go to a show and flirt with Liz nonstop when I'm around her!

[RawAlex]

Well, a quick note from the front lines of porn.

Based on what I could see at the AEE show, it would appear that porn is alive and well, and that there is plenty of fan demand for the girls, fresh content, and so on. Plenty of interest in many of the toys, products, and companies involved overall.

Sunday (today) was a little quieter, but Saturday at the show was a zoo with lineups out the door and people lining up around almost every booth to get an autograph from the girls and to check things out. Thanks to BangWang and all the people at Silver Sinema giving me a place to stay out of the crowds so I could step back and enjoy the show of porn marketing at it's best.

I am guessing 2009 is going to be all about people being able to pay for porn, not a lack of demand.