Any predictions for 2009?
 

I think the economy gets worse before it gets better.

I think our new President will face an international challenge to go along with his homeland economic problems.

I expect all of this to continue to impact adult industry. Traffic will continue to skyrocket to sites willing to give a lot away, conversions will continue to plunge.

I think we'll see at least one major processing challenge as a result of the financial industry being squeezed.

Exodus and consolidation will continue.

Looks to be a bad year for affiliate reps and the like unfortunately. I see lots of businesses having to scale back and conserve cache. ROI will be scrutinized more closely.

Affiliate reps likely have to become affiliates themselves. I see more traffic generation coming in house.

Show attendance likely takes a beating. 200 attendees will be a big show. With lack of sponsor dollars, 4-5 shows may fold.

Flash video and silverlight come of age in adult.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Wow, major league D&G. You must have a heck of a hangover from last night!

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

2009 will be the year we finally have a zombie outbreak.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Im going to jump off the roof now. lol

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Actually, I want to take a kick at this one.

My most major prediction for 2009 is the collapse of the big time payout affiliate programs. It is a bit of a combination of things that is going to bring this on, not any one thing.

Obviously, the Mastercard move on pre-checked cross sales (or any cross sales for that matter) could lead to Visa doing the same. That would eliminate part of the scourge of the porn world right now, companies burning customers for all they are worth. The chargeback rates might get them before the regs do, but in my mind it is doubtful the $100 per signup guys will be able to last it out.

The second part is the whole AFF situation. The IPO is a hail mary of all hail marys, and their opening of the books for the IPO shows that they have been routinely losing about $20-$30 per signup, on an average payout of somewhere around $70 or so over the last couple of years (consider that some of the signups are through Zango and ad buys, not their affiliate program). Everyone of their direct competitors nows knows that AFF has been losing money at a pretty fast pace (100 million in 3 years) and that it cannot continue. Either the IPO won't come off and AFF will be decimated, or the IPO will work, and shareholder pressure (or a change of controlling ownership) will force them to drop their per signup payouts to levels where the program is profitable. As soon as one cam / dating program blinks, they all will, because you have to assume that most of them are losing their asses trying to keep up with the high payouts.

The indirect result of this is major pain for the high traffic tube sites. Many of them are entirely dependant on high payout programs to make them enough money to keep going. Already some of them are suffering because cheap hosts like Alphared have gone out of business, raising their costs of bandwidth (for those who don't know, many of the tube sites are hosted at good places, but in turn host and serve their movie files from some of the crappiest, cheapest, nastiest hosts on the planet). So a squeeze between higher costs on the bottom and lower payouts on the top may in fact make their lives more miserable than before. When your entire business is spending $1 to make $1.10 and your expenses go up 20% and your revenue drops 50%, well, shit ain't working.

I also see 2009 at a year with great potential for he rebirth of solid well managed affiliate programs. Many of the big players have ground to a halt, victims of the tubes and their own greed, and many of the midline programs that were suffering in 2007 were bought out or closed in 2008. With the potential of cheaper labor costs (unemployment leads to more pussy for porn) and a fairly wide open market place for new concepts, I think 2009 will be a year that will see a weird sort of regrowth in the market. With 2257 hopefully settling down and third party record keepers being once again acceptable, I think that the real amateur market may once again rise up and get back to it.

All those programs that are caught in the cross sale web, creating off shore billing entities and trading customer info are in for a shock. They will likely be the ones on the outside looking in, or potentially on the inside looking at bars - as most of them haven't considered the implications of European and Canadian privacy laws.

Oh yeah, 2009 is the year that some lucky surfers will get a real touch! Then they will be hooked.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

What little exposure I have gotten with this device and peoples reaction has been pretty damn positive.

This device taps in to the core of the desired end result for any adult entertainmentan that is to get the viewer off.

The closest thing so far is the fleshlight and based on its sales and popularity I would say that RealTouch could way more surpass this demand.

Keep in mind you are looking at a novelty device that has a recurring revenue stream by design.

In the coming weeks you will hear me talk a lot more about how this device is going to end up positioned in the business and some of the conclusions I have about it.

I can also tell you I believe that whats left of the TGP market will be replaced by an incredible amount of growth in the Tube market. For us oldie moldies in this biz.... think how Shaven Ferret was able to expand the TGP market and kill off the PicPosts a long time ago.

I think consolidation continues which for reasons youve seen in prior posts is a good thing.

I see billing becoming a major issue for all of us.

I see a rebirth in webcams as they become the new personals and entertainment hybrid of sorts.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

If you never had a hang over before, you will have now :-)

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Some interesting thoughts so far. I think 2009 is going to be a mixed bag. Survival will be the name of the game for vast majority. There will be a fair number of big losers and a much smaller number of big winners. Whether it's a boom, bust or something in-between will depend on where you're currently postioned and just how "stuck" you are in that position.

There's going to be a great deal of change in 2009. The way content is being delivered will continue to evolve. Switch to the new too early and you lose your existing user base. Jump too late and your user base has already left. Gracefully being able to deliver by both old and new methods is usually very difficult to pull off.

A couple more specific predictions:
• HUGE turnover in "part time" webmasters, not that it hasn't been high all along, but turnover will be even higher. Many that have been in the biz drop out as their porn income significantly declines. Others that have lost jobs enter the biz thinking they can make money selling porn, only to drop out after a few months.
• The FriendFinder IPO fails miserably. AFF itself survives, most likely sold off as part of a restructuring or bankruptcy. Major changes to it's existing business strategies in order to make it profitable.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

I cant see tubes replacing tgp's. I still do very well with tgp's and I doubt im the only one. I have submitted to legal tubes and first I got to give them half and secondly they dont convert as well. Also for tubes to over take tgps someone has to make a submitter.
Also I loved Shaven Ferrets pic post submitter, I was very sad when it was no more.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Ill lend you my glasses in a week or two and you will see.
Your thinking the old game.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Considering there isnt a legal tube that makes any real money or has any real traffic to speak of. I cant see it. They keep giving full scenes for traffic the buyer pool will get smaller and smaller.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Not a one? Are you sure?

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

I know of one that does both... and its not got full scenes.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

I am sure there are some legal tube sites that are making money, but to some extent their success may be artificial. Example, if you ran 5 bigger traffic TGPs and filtered off 10% of the traffic from each one through various means, you could have a tube site that gets a bunch of traffic. Structured correctly, that traffic would in theory convert likely as well as normal TGP traffic, maybe a little bit better because you can control what they see.

But if you look at pretty much every tube site, they are dependant to a huge degree on non-porn sales, upsales, and other techniques to make money, because they aren't very good methods to sell actual porn. Any method that might get used to filter down the traffic (such as limiting views per user, or through various mousetrapping methods) kills what the viewer would expect in a tube site, and therefore would limit traffic growth.

Tube sites face that simple problem (that TGPs faced originally) which is that you put too much free porn in a format that is too easy for the users to find, enjoy, and ultimately finish the task at hand with. There is no way you are selling porn to a guy that has already used the kleenex box. It's exponentially worse with a tube site, because you are not only presenting links to galleries (usually sponsor hosted) but you are now also having to host the videos, which incurs potentially significant costs on all those non-buyers.

So who do you think in the tube world is actually making money (and by making money, I mean getting more than 10% return on costs)?

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Why not just swap out those TGPs to become a tube site?

The presentation is simple as they do for Hollywood.
Think of your hotel spanktravision....they show you a clip over for several movies and you can pick up the remote and order it right then.

Why not have a tube site that does the very same thing?

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

I'm not really sure that anyone is, or isn't, making money with a legal tube site.

I've read a number of claims that xtube does well, but with nothing to back up those claims.

The point of my reply to Tony was that there's no one in a position to know for sure that none are making money.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

I think its because tubes have become a word synonymous with free stuff from youtube(who still hasnt made a proft) to hulu to youporn to redtube to tube8.I think people have been trained so when they hear tube they think free. I think that's why the legal ones dont grow because the surfer sees its all short clips and they go to the next ones giving them the free scenes they want. I also think the older crowd goes to tgps and they still spend money'

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Ill also add this.
Tube sites arent a bad thing.
Cross sales arent a bad thing.
Popups werent a bad thing.
Blind links werent a bad thing.


What happened was that in the case of some of the earlier techniques you saw them misused and the effectiveness reduced.

Remember just a few years ago where the trend was for the pay site owner to spend on the upwards of 10K for a smashing tour but when you got inside it was one huge content repository?

Surfer got wise...funny thing is some of the same people that were doing that are now guilty of the misuse of precheck cross sales.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

XXXjay stated no matter what he did, it was very hard to get snizzshare's(a legal tube) traffic base to grow. I also submit to a few legal tubes their traffic is nowhere close to the illegal ones.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Of course they don't, but traffic volume is irrelevant if you can't convert the traffic.

I think we'll see some different things done with legal tubes, rather than just trying to follow the high volume plan of illegal tubes. I have a couple of ideas. I'll get back to you later this year.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Watch what Im telling you. With AFF not buying up ad space the illegal ones will find themselves in a position to monitize and Im not so sure someone isnt just going to come out and start legal proceedings.

Its a recession and stranger things have happened.

Its a tough nut to crack if you werent first to market. Maybe Jay just doesnt think out of the box enough?

Ill make this statement... I will have all of my TGP and MGPs converted over to legal tubes before Feburary.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Great post Alex.

The problem is for many years people thought traffic was the answer. The problem was the way they got it and the cost of getting it. Tube sites that can't afford their BW are going to be hit in 2009. As more businesses cut back some of the hosting companies running on a shoe string will be closing or putting up their costs.

With less people with less money to spend more will be going to Tube sites and less will be buying. Traffic for many is like the French Kings, something they can't afford and the solution is the guillotine. (My attempt at humour.)

However the answer is not better affiliate programs. It's better members areas. Until this industry wakes up to the fact that a Tube site giving away a product costing them cents, we will not be able to sell our products for dollars. To support our cost of getting 1 buyer in 1,000 surfers to sign up.

We need a product 1 in 100 will buy and more money spent on inside a members area than we currently do.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Here's a prediction. Sites that offer no more than a Tube offers, in the eyes of the consumer, will continue to lose traffic to Tubes.

The problem is not Tube sites. It's paysites that offer little more to the members than a Tube site. IN THE EYES OF THE CUSTOMERS. What ever you say about how marvellous our members areas are the truth is the members choosing Tubes don't agree with you.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Another great post.

The problem has been the same for years. The value people put on getting surfers to the site and the value put on members areas. Sites will spend $100,000 to get people to a site and $10,000 on what's inside the site. In the first year. In the second year they spend another $100,000 outside the members are and $5,000 inside.

And then they blame others for the members turning their backs on buying.

And think the answer is to spend $110,000 on getting more people to the site.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

If they dont spend money they arent customers and probably half the surfers on tubes arent old enough to have a credit card. THe key is going to be locking down content so its not so easy to take.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

You got to be kidding right?

Im all for making content tougher to get but lets be realistic here... this business was started by people who populated pay sites with pics off the usenet or that scanned Penthouse magazines.

Usenet hasnt gone away as I can get the entire move for free there weeks before it is released. Locking content down just isnt possible.

Making it harder to copy is doable though.

People routinely screen scrape DRM protected movies all the time.
Pain in the ass but it happens.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

The solution to tubes is really pretty simple in concept. Offer a product that the tubes can't. Yes, easier said than done, but that product can take many forms.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

http://www.oprano.com/msgboard/showthread.php?t=92831

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

If they don't spend money why do we spend so much time, money and effort targetting them to pass by?

The key is not locking down content, it's having content that's worth locking down.

Toby has got a solution. If you're just offering the same product as Tubes give away, why should a surfer getting it for free become a member spending money?

Think beyond where we are now.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

I do see a lot of doom and gloom for 2009 unfortunately. Until someone gets a handle on this economy, it hurts all of us. And I dont think it can be done in 12 months.

Now there is an upside simply in that adversity creates opportunity, and that is certainly going to be true in adult as well.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

...and so it degrades into another tubes are killing us thread??

Tubes continue to provoke a reaction from many people in the business, especially those who do their own content. The gut reaction is that it's an outlet for people to see the work you slaved over for free. And for many, perhaps most, of the tube sites out there, that's a true statement.

But reacting emotionally doesn't help your bank account. Like many other things in the business, they've become a fact of life. The genie is out of the bottle, it's not going back in. So you have to figure out how to leverage it.

There's also one key realization you have to reach in this business. There's a percentage, and a large one at that, of surfers who will never ever pay for porn. There's nothing you can do to make them. Some of these people are also going to go to extremes to see your stuff even though they will never pay for it.

There is no profit in that entire market segment, in fact, there is no income in it, it is all expense if you opt to try to fight it. Spend your time going after those that WILL pay instead.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Big Ron says that as his unique expertise as a B2B company [precheck cross sale broker I suppose] that tubes have been his problem all year.

It makes it tough to rip off the surfer for shit they didnt order I guess...SON!

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

the answer will be to lock it down so they cant get it for free. Also this well tubes are here so I guess we all got to bend over is ridiculous. They are teaching a whole upcoming generation why pay when you can get it for free. Most porn buyers don't want toys, gadgets, box tops anything that gives evidence to their activities.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Agreed, but you can offer a product that illegal tubes don't without needing any of those things. Tube = video. Still do what you can to lock down your video, it will slow down the theft, but there's alot of other things to offer on a pay site that doesn't involve video.

The primary advantage that true amateur sites have always had is the interaction with their members. I think some of that has gotten lost, or has dropped in priority over the last few years. (I can't speak for your site, since I've never seen the member side). That interaction is something that tubes can't offer. That's just one example, there are many more.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Tubes and torrents are an issue. Pre-checked cross sales are another.

The PCCS are most obviously the worst because they are a negative against using credit cards. They burn the people willing to pay for porn, and they burn people willing to use their credit cards online, which is a pretty damn small number as it is. IMHO, the PCCS are something that the industry as a whole should have control over, but we do not.

The TTFS (Tubes Torrents and File Sharers) are more of a problem like rust or soil erosion. It isn't directly a negative to our business specifically, but if not carefully monitors and tended, it can do a lot of harm. The biggest harm in my mind comes from Google SERPs. Example, searching for the Cumfiesta episode featuring celeste:

http://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&sa...G=Search&meta=

Out of the top 10, 7 or 8 are either free forums, file sharing, torrents, or tubes. Probably 90% of the potential searchers will never be sent anywhere near a credit card screen for this material.

What is worse is that this is fixable problem. Google accepts DMCA notices. The owners of the material just have to go do some simple searches, make a list of sites, and send the notices. The net result would be more search traffic going to their sites (or at least to affiliate sites) and less going to theives.

Like I said, it's an erosion, it takes away the underlying support, until one day the surface snaps.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Its not a matter of teaching anyone anything.
If they want to swipe it they are going to... no matter what you do.

The issue is making it easier.
I hear all this whining about giving away sample content but I always think of it like Far L put it a few years about when he equated it to free samples at the mall.

You dont feed em a meal... you give them a taste.

Hickory Farms
Chick Fil A
CostCo
and what ever chinese food vendor is in your food court all do the same thing.

Nick3131 isnt going to EVER buy anything there... hes going to try to make a meal off of whats being given away.

But that doesnt mean many others wont buy.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Good post. Yes Tubes are here to stay and few have any answer to them. Some think locking down content, silly really as all it will do is make the Tube owners buy cheap DVDs at the local porn shop. $20 for 5 scenes. LOL

Giving away toys, gadgets, box tops is pointless but that's not the limit of what we can give away. However the upcoming generation never did pay for porn. A 16 to 20 year old has hardly refined his porn tastes to not be able to jerk off to anything. The Internet taught them that everything should be free not just porn.

As for the huge percentage who will never spend, as an industry we have always spent more money on them than those who will spend. We all need to think about the inside of our sites and not the outside and free surfers.

Here's things that you can give members.

A lot more content for their money. And a lot better content, the best can always be improved on.
A membership that suits their needs. And not our needs.
Live Web Cam or live show for free. And a cheap upsell to show the Tube surfers a cheaper way.
Live online chat with girls for free.
Dating sites content for free, that's tough but it can be done. Aand a cheap upsell to show the Tube surfers a cheaper way.


All the above are doable, tell me why you can't.
If enough people offer free web Cam and dating sites content that will directly effect Tubes bottom line. They give away free videos to upsell. We give away free Web Cam to sell videos.

Will it work if enough do it? No one knows for sure.
Can we afford it? We can if we cut affiliate payments by half the cost and make up the sites cost and affiliates drop in earnings by increased sign ups.
Will people give it a shot? Not likely, it takes balls to give it a shot. and that's the problem. So many posts whining about Tubes stealing content and very little to suggest how we stop them. Hitting their bottom line, advertising revenues, is the only way. There is no legal avenue to follow, locking down content is ridiculous and whining is pointless.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Here's the problem with that and why DRM is largely a failure for anything other than pay per minute.... You're doing exactly what I said. Your spending time money and effort to fight the community who isn't going to pay for it anyway. At the same time, you annoy the hell out of your paying customers.

Now in reality I'm sure that's not the case. My real point is there's a fine line to be walked that provides reasonable security and action against those who infringe upon your copyrights, but stops short of inconveniencing the paying customer.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

you are right i just get pissed off.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

DRM failed. It is too cumbersome and too overbearing, and punishes the good customers and doesn't really defeat the bad ones (who will just get the content anyway).

The only way to lock the content up enough hurts the business more than anything - so you have to be proactive about chasing thieves. 2009 will be the year content producers wake up and realize that if they don't protect their content, it has no value - and at that point, the entire porn business no longer has a financial leg to stand on.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Fuck thats it Im going back to work and tell them to shut it down.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Locking down content will not stop Tubes getting it for free.
If we actually do achieve the impossible, Tubes will buy DVDs and encode from them. Stop thinking it's surfers ripping sites and putting up full scenes. It's the Tube sites. Most websites watermark videos, most DVD companies do not. Go check the major full length Tubes.

The best way of doing it is to limit the amount a member can download in a day and block auto downloaders and tell him why. Most members understand what Tubes and pirates are doing to the industry and the effect on their entertainment. Let's not demonise the members, these guys are the solution not the problem.

As for content having value. I chuckled over that one. I'm on the receiving end of the content buying chain and know exactly what value many sites put on content. Most content on most sites is not worth protecting.

So let's really dream, possibly under the influence of some blow, and imagine a world where most sites lock down their content so no one can steal it and DVDs are encoded so no one can rip them. I did say we were dreaming. So what would be the results of this dream?

Sites like Brazzers would give content to Tubes for free.

Whoops!!!!!

As for chasing thieves, that made me laugh. You have to prove their stealing in the first place. Then go to where they are to find them, then take them to court, then take the company that replaces them to court in the country they are in. Please if the record industry could not do it why do you think we can?

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Paul, I don't for a moment assume that a tube site is "user submitted" anymore than I think that the millions of profiles on AFF are real.

My prediction for 2009 is that you will continue to just miss the point.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Guess that makes two of us.

There are DVDs with porn. Plus companies who will chase the short term dollar and not lock down content, companies with content that simply is not worth locking down, companies selling up for a fraction of what the content is worth and companies like Brazzers who will give them all the content they need.

So why do you think locking down content will be possible and a solution?

Would love an explanation how the impossible is possible.

I suppose it's about as possible as a legal solution and that gets a lot of people missing the point as well.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Paul, you didn't pay attention - I didn't suggest locking down content as a solution. Please go back and re-read and try again.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

I predict you tube opponents are about to have a bad week.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

OK I mis understood what you meant by protecting content. You still miss the point on protecting and chasing thieves. It's not a viable option. Unless affiliates want to cut their commission to 10% to pay the lawyers in all the countries the Tubes sites are run from.

OK maybe not 10% but the money to pay the lawyers has to come from somewhere. Are you going to put some in the kitty?

Got another unworkable solution.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Paul, again, you are missing the point - it isn't about chasing after the thieves directly either. I swear you never read past the first sentence of any post.

My thought is pretty simple - work with major traffic sources (the SEs) to eliminate the torrent and illegal tube sites from the SERPs. That would dramatically shift traffic back to the programs and away from those sites using material illegally.

You don't need lawyers to do the work either. Heck, you could do it yourself for your own sites.

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

In interesting strategy to combat P2P.

http://www.xbiz.com/news/all/103223

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 

Sorry I did not realise you were serious about this.

<b>The biggest harm in my mind comes from Google SERPs. Example, searching for the Cumfiesta episode featuring celeste:</b>

Here's a prediction for 2009.

The key to most anti tube posts and ideas is to stop the surfer having that option. Those who think the key is to force the surfer to buy, deny him access to what he prefers will find out how WRONG they are. It did not work in the past, does not work now and will not work in the future. So long as the options exist.

If a guy who will not spend on porn can't find the content he wants on Google he will find it another way. He's probably already found the sites he needs, your solution while being a good back up plan is not the solution. The only solution is to make paysites worth joining and free sites unprofitable.

In 2009 we need to get away from the belief that traffic is the most important thing. It never was and not going to be in the future. Sales are the most important thing and always will be. Everyone has learned that increasing sales does not always lead to an increase in sales. Sometimes it leads to a drop in ratios.

So long as the option to not pay for content competes with the option to pay free sites giving away will take customers away. We need to target just those people and get them back to buying because they want to. Not because they have to.

Here's an idea for you Alex. You're not allowed to send a DMCA on others content unless authorised. What you can do is 2-3 times a day do a search on Google for sites like Cum Fiesta and send an email to the person they authorise with all the info and in the form of a DMCA. Once you and they see the results of this plan you can start a sideline and charge for the service.

We will see if it brings down free sites.