Blockbuster files for bankruptcy

[RawAlex]

one thing though... I mentioned to a friend of mine today (asian) that Blockbuster in the US filed for bankruptcy, and her comment was "who rents... don't you just download whatever you want?".

There is a whole generation (younger than most of us here) for whom actually paying for content (movies, music, whatever) isn't even a consideration. Either they go with friends and pay the big bucks to see the movie in the theater, or they download it off the torrent sites or the private trackers they are part of.

Rentals don't exist for them, except perhaps in the rare case they need to rip something to put online for credit. Otherwise, it's null.

You run a couple of kiosks, so you should know. How old is your average renter? I am guessing closer to 40 than 20. 10 years from now, that number will be closer to 50, unless something dramatic changes.

Blockbuster got squeezed by plenty of things, and I think it significant that the market that should be most likely to rent (people with less money to buy, aka students and younger people) wouldn't set foot in a rental store in 100 years, except maybe to get a job.

I also think they made plenty of mistakes on real estate, store sizes, and the like. Too many square feet for a very simple product.

[Hell Puppy]

this is a good case study for "adapt or die".

[EmporerEJ]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

one thing though... I mentioned to a friend of mine today (asian) that Blockbuster in the US filed for bankruptcy, and her comment was "who rents... don't you just download whatever you want?".

There is a whole generation (younger than most of us here) for whom actually paying for content (movies, music, whatever) isn't even a consideration. Either they go with friends and pay the big bucks to see the movie in the theater, or they download it off the torrent sites or the private trackers they are part of.

Rentals don't exist for them, except perhaps in the rare case they need to rip something to put online for credit. Otherwise, it's null.

You run a couple of kiosks, so you should know. How old is your average renter? I am guessing closer to 40 than 20. 10 years from now, that number will be closer to 50, unless something dramatic changes.

Blockbuster got squeezed by plenty of things, and I think it significant that the market that should be most likely to rent (people with less money to buy, aka students and younger people) wouldn't set foot in a rental store in 100 years, except maybe to get a job.

I also think they made plenty of mistakes on real estate, store sizes, and the like. Too many square feet for a very simple product.

Hence my estimate of 5-8 years more. And I'm probably making a mistake on the low side there. I said the same thing back in '94, and then DVD came along. Had I stayed in the biz, I could have adapted to DVD, and made a cash crop fro a while. (But I really was bored of retail.)

Couple reasons Netflix, and the "cable company et all" of "instant download" won't win for some time to come.

Netflix will never win, because there is a delay. Even though it's one day for most, people want it NOW. They are trying to adapt, but licensing will always stop them. In the US, the laws, regulations, and licensing have done more to hold back technological advancement than anything else.

Cable company, and all "instant" delivery services have serious flaws.
Cable company shoots themselves in the foot all the time.
Try renting a move from them sometime.
You Pay at least $4, PLUS a "fee" to use that damn box you are already paying a monthly rental on. Usually 25-50 cents.
You think that doesn't piss off the average American?
They haven't been able to get that model working properly since the 80's.

They all, ultimately lose,because the law doesn't allow the transfer of porn over the cable system, and the netflixes of the world will never deal in it.

And THAT is the real secret of ANY video biz. The "safe" distribution of porn. That was the lesson I learned, standing behind 4 counters, for 9 years.
Give them a way to safely, and quietly rent porn, and they will beat a path to your door.

I now share the secret to success, which I learned over a lifetime of trial and error.
And why do I share it freely? Anyone with half a brain can figure it out, and I can't get it all.....

[sunfunbill]

There is a whole generation (younger than most of us here) for whom actually paying for content (movies, music, whatever) isn't even a consideration. Either they go with friends and pay the big bucks to see the movie in the theater, or they download it off the torrent sites or the private trackers they are part of.

Rentals don't exist for them, except perhaps in the rare case they need to rip something to put online for credit. Otherwise, it's null.

You run a couple of kiosks, so you should know. How old is your average renter? I am guessing closer to 40 than 20. 10 years from now, that number will be closer to 50, unless something dramatic changes.

A little off topic from the OP, but this is why you should cater to niches in adult biz. Very highly specific fetishes and niches are normally populated by older men.

Older men have more money and more likely to just pay for what they want then college kids. My niche is mostly middle aged men. They don't want to dick around with torrents and crap, they just want to pay for a quality site that has their fetish.

[Toby]

Originally Posted by sunfunbill

My niche is mostly middle aged men. They don't want to dick around with torrents and crap, they just want to pay for a quality site that has their fetish.

+1

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by sunfunbill

A little off topic from the OP, but this is why you should cater to niches in adult biz. Very highly specific fetishes and niches are normally populated by older men.

Older men have more money and more likely to just pay for what they want then college kids. My niche is mostly middle aged men. They don't want to dick around with torrents and crap, they just want to pay for a quality site that has their fetish.

+2

[EmporerEJ]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

You run a couple of kiosks, so you should know. How old is your average renter? I am guessing closer to 40 than 20. 10 years from now, that number will be closer to 50, unless something dramatic changes.

The Kiosk only recognizes over 18 (Have credit card.)
But, even if it were so, how does that matter?
Will that 50 year old, who is now very comfortable renting the DVDs this way, and is very happy the DVD player doesn't have a flashing "12:00 am," suddenly stop watching movies? No. In fact, they will be even better customers then, as now.

[RawAlex]

Originally Posted by EmporerEJ

The Kiosk only recognizes over 18 (Have credit card.)
But, even if it were so, how does that matter?
Will that 50 year old, who is now very comfortable renting the DVDs this way, and is very happy the DVD player doesn't have a flashing "12:00 am," suddenly stop watching movies? No. In fact, they will be even better customers then, as now.

Yup, and you keep selling to a declining market (because, sadly, people over 50 do tend to die off... or retire and leave the area). If you don't see a lot of people under 30 using the machines, that should tell you that it isn't a business with a true long term potential for growth, just a nice slow and steady decline into irrelevance.

[EmporerEJ]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

Yup, and you keep selling to a declining market (because, sadly, people over 50 do tend to die off... or retire and leave the area). If you don't see a lot of people under 30 using the machines, that should tell you that it isn't a business with a true long term potential for growth, just a nice slow and steady decline into irrelevance.

I just love guys like you.
I have no illusions the DVD KIOSK market will be around til I die.
It doesn't have to be, to make me happy. I'd be happy for 5 solid years. The numbers are THAT good.
The upfront is low, the ongoing is ridiculously low, compared to when I was in the Bricks and mortar video, and it's just another revenue stream, that uses about an hour's worth of time a week for me. (From my chair...wherever that chair may be.)

It's also one of those works by itself while I'm sleeping, or elsewhere kind of things.

But you know what.... you're right again. Bad idea.........for you.
You go do something mo' betta.

I know one sure way of not getting anything at all......spend your time convincing yourself why a thing doesn't work, or won't work in the foggy future, or some other "no facts," baseless decision.
That way, you can certainly ALWAYS be right.

Love the armchair entrepreneur.

[RawAlex]

Originally Posted by EmporerEJ

I just love guys like you.
I have no illusions the DVD KIOSK market will be around til I die.
It doesn't have to be, to make me happy. I'd be happy for 5 solid years. The numbers are THAT good.
The upfront is low, the ongoing is ridiculously low, compared to when I was in the Bricks and mortar video, and it's just another revenue stream, that uses about an hour's worth of time a week for me. (From my chair...wherever that chair may be.)

It's also one of those works by itself while I'm sleeping, or elsewhere kind of things.

But you know what.... you're right again. Bad idea.........for you.
You go do something mo' betta.

I know one sure way of not getting anything at all......spend your time convincing yourself why a thing doesn't work, or won't work in the foggy future, or some other "no facts," baseless decision.
That way, you can certainly ALWAYS be right.

Love the armchair entrepreneur.

This is why you always end up in arguments and disagreements, because you jump right over and suggest I am saying it's a bad business and don't do it. I AM NOT.

Wake up. All I am saying is that Kiosk style rental things are in the same exact place that blockbuster was back in the day, where margins were great and it looked like a business with a long potential life span. The sad reality is that it was not a long term business, certainly not as long as they were planning for.

Your customer base is older, and currently less likely to go online. But as more and more TVs and DVD players have netflix installed, and as more people become comfortable with pirating movies and such (and more do all the time), the more your business gets eroded, exactly in the same manner it did for Blockbuster.

Will you get 5 years? 10? 2? I don't know. All I am certain of is that if I had asked people if the DVD was going to be a near dinosaur today, most of them would not have believed it. Advancements are moving even faster, rendering the trip to the video store (even a kiosk) as a quaint thing that your parents use to do, before they learned better.

remember, talk with us, not down to us. It works better!

[EmporerEJ]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

remember, talk with us, not down to us. It works better!

Well, I'm not trying to do that......even if I could.

But your constant negativity is "harshing my mellow."

[RawAlex]

Originally Posted by EmporerEJ

Well, I'm not trying to do that......even if I could.

But your constant negativity is "harshing my mellow."

you need better (insert drug of choice) here if I can harsh your mellow.

Then again, I guess you are right about all of this, because you always are.

[softball]

Originally Posted by EmporerEJ

Well, I'm not trying to do that......even if I could.

But your constant negativity is "harshing my mellow."

Dude, your mallow was marshed years ago. But then again, you are arguing with someone who can't seem to make enough to get out of the mosquito capital of the planet. That prolly speaks volumes in itself.