Any predictions for 2009?

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by tony404

I cant see tubes replacing tgp's. I still do very well with tgp's and I doubt im the only one. I have submitted to legal tubes and first I got to give them half and secondly they dont convert as well. Also for tubes to over take tgps someone has to make a submitter.
Also I loved Shaven Ferrets pic post submitter, I was very sad when it was no more.

Ill lend you my glasses in a week or two and you will see.
Your thinking the old game.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by gonzo

Ill lend you my glasses in a week or two and you will see.
Your thinking the old game.

Considering there isnt a legal tube that makes any real money or has any real traffic to speak of. I cant see it. They keep giving full scenes for traffic the buyer pool will get smaller and smaller.

[Toby]

Originally Posted by tony404

Considering there isnt a legal tube that makes any real money...

Not a one? Are you sure?

[RawAlex]

Originally Posted by Toby

Not a one? Are you sure?

I am sure there are some legal tube sites that are making money, but to some extent their success may be artificial. Example, if you ran 5 bigger traffic TGPs and filtered off 10% of the traffic from each one through various means, you could have a tube site that gets a bunch of traffic. Structured correctly, that traffic would in theory convert likely as well as normal TGP traffic, maybe a little bit better because you can control what they see.

But if you look at pretty much every tube site, they are dependant to a huge degree on non-porn sales, upsales, and other techniques to make money, because they aren't very good methods to sell actual porn. Any method that might get used to filter down the traffic (such as limiting views per user, or through various mousetrapping methods) kills what the viewer would expect in a tube site, and therefore would limit traffic growth.

Tube sites face that simple problem (that TGPs faced originally) which is that you put too much free porn in a format that is too easy for the users to find, enjoy, and ultimately finish the task at hand with. There is no way you are selling porn to a guy that has already used the kleenex box. It's exponentially worse with a tube site, because you are not only presenting links to galleries (usually sponsor hosted) but you are now also having to host the videos, which incurs potentially significant costs on all those non-buyers.

So who do you think in the tube world is actually making money (and by making money, I mean getting more than 10% return on costs)?

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

I am sure there are some legal tube sites that are making money, but to some extent their success may be artificial. Example, if you ran 5 bigger traffic TGPs and filtered off 10% of the traffic from each one through various means, you could have a tube site that gets a bunch of traffic. Structured correctly, that traffic would in theory convert likely as well as normal TGP traffic, maybe a little bit better because you can control what they see.

But if you look at pretty much every tube site, they are dependant to a huge degree on non-porn sales, upsales, and other techniques to make money, because they aren't very good methods to sell actual porn. Any method that might get used to filter down the traffic (such as limiting views per user, or through various mousetrapping methods) kills what the viewer would expect in a tube site, and therefore would limit traffic growth.

Tube sites face that simple problem (that TGPs faced originally) which is that you put too much free porn in a format that is too easy for the users to find, enjoy, and ultimately finish the task at hand with. There is no way you are selling porn to a guy that has already used the kleenex box. It's exponentially worse with a tube site, because you are not only presenting links to galleries (usually sponsor hosted) but you are now also having to host the videos, which incurs potentially significant costs on all those non-buyers.

So who do you think in the tube world is actually making money (and by making money, I mean getting more than 10% return on costs)?

Why not just swap out those TGPs to become a tube site?

The presentation is simple as they do for Hollywood.
Think of your hotel spanktravision....they show you a clip over for several movies and you can pick up the remote and order it right then.

Why not have a tube site that does the very same thing?

[tony404]

Originally Posted by gonzo

Why not just swap out those TGPs to become a tube site?

The presentation is simple as they do for Hollywood.
Think of your hotel spanktravision....they show you a clip over for several movies and you can pick up the remote and order it right then.

Why not have a tube site that does the very same thing?

I think its because tubes have become a word synonymous with free stuff from youtube(who still hasnt made a proft) to hulu to youporn to redtube to tube8.I think people have been trained so when they hear tube they think free. I think that's why the legal ones dont grow because the surfer sees its all short clips and they go to the next ones giving them the free scenes they want. I also think the older crowd goes to tgps and they still spend money'

[Toby]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

So who do you think in the tube world is actually making money (and by making money, I mean getting more than 10% return on costs)?

I'm not really sure that anyone is, or isn't, making money with a legal tube site.

I've read a number of claims that xtube does well, but with nothing to back up those claims.

The point of my reply to Tony was that there's no one in a position to know for sure that none are making money.

[gonzo]

Ill also add this.
Tube sites arent a bad thing.
Cross sales arent a bad thing.
Popups werent a bad thing.
Blind links werent a bad thing.


What happened was that in the case of some of the earlier techniques you saw them misused and the effectiveness reduced.

Remember just a few years ago where the trend was for the pay site owner to spend on the upwards of 10K for a smashing tour but when you got inside it was one huge content repository?

Surfer got wise...funny thing is some of the same people that were doing that are now guilty of the misuse of precheck cross sales.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by gonzo

Ill also add this.
Tube sites arent a bad thing.
Cross sales arent a bad thing.
Popups werent a bad thing.
Blind links werent a bad thing.


What happened was that in the case of some of the earlier techniques you saw them misused and the effectiveness reduced.

Remember just a few years ago where the trend was for the pay site owner to spend on the upwards of 10K for a smashing tour but when you got inside it was one huge content repository?

Surfer got wise...funny thing is some of the same people that were doing that are now guilty of the misuse of precheck cross sales.

Another great post.

The problem has been the same for years. The value people put on getting surfers to the site and the value put on members areas. Sites will spend $100,000 to get people to a site and $10,000 on what's inside the site. In the first year. In the second year they spend another $100,000 outside the members are and $5,000 inside.

And then they blame others for the members turning their backs on buying.

And think the answer is to spend $110,000 on getting more people to the site.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by Toby

I'm not really sure that anyone is, or isn't, making money with a legal tube site.

I've read a number of claims that xtube does well, but with nothing to back up those claims.

The point of my reply to Tony was that there's no one in a position to know for sure that none are making money.

XXXjay stated no matter what he did, it was very hard to get snizzshare's(a legal tube) traffic base to grow. I also submit to a few legal tubes their traffic is nowhere close to the illegal ones.

[Toby]

Originally Posted by tony404

I also submit to a few legal tubes their traffic is nowhere close to the illegal ones.

Of course they don't, but traffic volume is irrelevant if you can't convert the traffic.

I think we'll see some different things done with legal tubes, rather than just trying to follow the high volume plan of illegal tubes. I have a couple of ideas. I'll get back to you later this year.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by tony404

XXXjay stated no matter what he did, it was very hard to get snizzshare's(a legal tube) traffic base to grow. I also submit to a few legal tubes their traffic is nowhere close to the illegal ones.

Watch what Im telling you. With AFF not buying up ad space the illegal ones will find themselves in a position to monitize and Im not so sure someone isnt just going to come out and start legal proceedings.

Its a recession and stranger things have happened.

Its a tough nut to crack if you werent first to market. Maybe Jay just doesnt think out of the box enough?

Ill make this statement... I will have all of my TGP and MGPs converted over to legal tubes before Feburary.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by tony404

Considering there isnt a legal tube that makes any real money or has any real traffic to speak of. I cant see it. They keep giving full scenes for traffic the buyer pool will get smaller and smaller.

I know of one that does both... and its not got full scenes.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by tony404

Considering there isnt a legal tube that makes any real money or has any real traffic to speak of. I cant see it. They keep giving full scenes for traffic the buyer pool will get smaller and smaller.

Here's a prediction. Sites that offer no more than a Tube offers, in the eyes of the consumer, will continue to lose traffic to Tubes.

The problem is not Tube sites. It's paysites that offer little more to the members than a Tube site. IN THE EYES OF THE CUSTOMERS. What ever you say about how marvellous our members areas are the truth is the members choosing Tubes don't agree with you.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

Here's a prediction. Sites that offer no more than a Tube offers, in the eyes of the consumer, will continue to lose traffic to Tubes.

The problem is not Tube sites. It's paysites that offer little more to the members than a Tube site. IN THE EYES OF THE CUSTOMERS. What ever you say about how marvellous our members areas are the truth is the members choosing Tubes don't agree with you.

If they dont spend money they arent customers and probably half the surfers on tubes arent old enough to have a credit card. THe key is going to be locking down content so its not so easy to take.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by tony404

If they dont spend money they arent customers and probably half the surfers on tubes arent old enough to have a credit card. THe key is going to be locking down content so its not so easy to take.

You got to be kidding right?

Im all for making content tougher to get but lets be realistic here... this business was started by people who populated pay sites with pics off the usenet or that scanned Penthouse magazines.

Usenet hasnt gone away as I can get the entire move for free there weeks before it is released. Locking content down just isnt possible.

Making it harder to copy is doable though.

People routinely screen scrape DRM protected movies all the time.
Pain in the ass but it happens.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by tony404

If they dont spend money they arent customers and probably half the surfers on tubes arent old enough to have a credit card. THe key is going to be locking down content so its not so easy to take.

If they don't spend money why do we spend so much time, money and effort targetting them to pass by?

The key is not locking down content, it's having content that's worth locking down.

Toby has got a solution. If you're just offering the same product as Tubes give away, why should a surfer getting it for free become a member spending money?

Think beyond where we are now.

[Hell Puppy]

I do see a lot of doom and gloom for 2009 unfortunately. Until someone gets a handle on this economy, it hurts all of us. And I dont think it can be done in 12 months.

Now there is an upside simply in that adversity creates opportunity, and that is certainly going to be true in adult as well.

[Hell Puppy]

...and so it degrades into another tubes are killing us thread??

Tubes continue to provoke a reaction from many people in the business, especially those who do their own content. The gut reaction is that it's an outlet for people to see the work you slaved over for free. And for many, perhaps most, of the tube sites out there, that's a true statement.

But reacting emotionally doesn't help your bank account. Like many other things in the business, they've become a fact of life. The genie is out of the bottle, it's not going back in. So you have to figure out how to leverage it.

There's also one key realization you have to reach in this business. There's a percentage, and a large one at that, of surfers who will never ever pay for porn. There's nothing you can do to make them. Some of these people are also going to go to extremes to see your stuff even though they will never pay for it.

There is no profit in that entire market segment, in fact, there is no income in it, it is all expense if you opt to try to fight it. Spend your time going after those that WILL pay instead.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

If they don't spend money why do we spend so much time, money and effort targetting them to pass by?

The key is not locking down content, it's having content that's worth locking down.

Toby has got a solution. If you're just offering the same product as Tubes give away, why should a surfer getting it for free become a member spending money?

Think beyond where we are now.

the answer will be to lock it down so they cant get it for free. Also this well tubes are here so I guess we all got to bend over is ridiculous. They are teaching a whole upcoming generation why pay when you can get it for free. Most porn buyers don't want toys, gadgets, box tops anything that gives evidence to their activities.

[Toby]

Originally Posted by tony404

Most porn buyers don't want toys, gadgets, box tops anything that gives evidence to their activities.

Agreed, but you can offer a product that illegal tubes don't without needing any of those things. Tube = video. Still do what you can to lock down your video, it will slow down the theft, but there's alot of other things to offer on a pay site that doesn't involve video.

The primary advantage that true amateur sites have always had is the interaction with their members. I think some of that has gotten lost, or has dropped in priority over the last few years. (I can't speak for your site, since I've never seen the member side). That interaction is something that tubes can't offer. That's just one example, there are many more.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by tony404

the answer will be to lock it down so they cant get it for free. Also this well tubes are here so I guess we all got to bend over is ridiculous. They are teaching a whole upcoming generation why pay when you can get it for free. Most porn buyers don't want toys, gadgets, box tops anything that gives evidence to their activities.

Its not a matter of teaching anyone anything.
If they want to swipe it they are going to... no matter what you do.

The issue is making it easier.
I hear all this whining about giving away sample content but I always think of it like Far L put it a few years about when he equated it to free samples at the mall.

You dont feed em a meal... you give them a taste.

Hickory Farms
Chick Fil A
CostCo
and what ever chinese food vendor is in your food court all do the same thing.

Nick3131 isnt going to EVER buy anything there... hes going to try to make a meal off of whats being given away.

But that doesnt mean many others wont buy.

[Hell Puppy]

Originally Posted by tony404

the answer will be to lock it down so they cant get it for free.

Here's the problem with that and why DRM is largely a failure for anything other than pay per minute.... You're doing exactly what I said. Your spending time money and effort to fight the community who isn't going to pay for it anyway. At the same time, you annoy the hell out of your paying customers.

Now in reality I'm sure that's not the case. My real point is there's a fine line to be walked that provides reasonable security and action against those who infringe upon your copyrights, but stops short of inconveniencing the paying customer.