Any predictions for 2009?

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

Oh yeah, 2009 is the year that some lucky surfers will get a real touch! Then they will be hooked.

What little exposure I have gotten with this device and peoples reaction has been pretty damn positive.

This device taps in to the core of the desired end result for any adult entertainmentan that is to get the viewer off.

The closest thing so far is the fleshlight and based on its sales and popularity I would say that RealTouch could way more surpass this demand.

Keep in mind you are looking at a novelty device that has a recurring revenue stream by design.

In the coming weeks you will hear me talk a lot more about how this device is going to end up positioned in the business and some of the conclusions I have about it.

I can also tell you I believe that whats left of the TGP market will be replaced by an incredible amount of growth in the Tube market. For us oldie moldies in this biz.... think how Shaven Ferret was able to expand the TGP market and kill off the PicPosts a long time ago.

I think consolidation continues which for reasons youve seen in prior posts is a good thing.

I see billing becoming a major issue for all of us.

I see a rebirth in webcams as they become the new personals and entertainment hybrid of sorts.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by gonzo

What little exposure I have gotten with this device and peoples reaction has been pretty damn positive.

This device taps in to the core of the desired end result for any adult entertainmentan that is to get the viewer off.

The closest thing so far is the fleshlight and based on its sales and popularity I would say that RealTouch could way more surpass this demand.

Keep in mind you are looking at a novelty device that has a recurring revenue stream by design.

In the coming weeks you will hear me talk a lot more about how this device is going to end up positioned in the business and some of the conclusions I have about it.

I can also tell you I believe that whats left of the TGP market will be replaced by an incredible amount of growth in the Tube market. For us oldie moldies in this biz.... think how Shaven Ferret was able to expand the TGP market and kill off the PicPosts a long time ago.

I think consolidation continues which for reasons youve seen in prior posts is a good thing.

I see billing becoming a major issue for all of us.

I see a rebirth in webcams as they become the new personals and entertainment hybrid of sorts.

I cant see tubes replacing tgp's. I still do very well with tgp's and I doubt im the only one. I have submitted to legal tubes and first I got to give them half and secondly they dont convert as well. Also for tubes to over take tgps someone has to make a submitter.
Also I loved Shaven Ferrets pic post submitter, I was very sad when it was no more.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by tony404

I cant see tubes replacing tgp's. I still do very well with tgp's and I doubt im the only one. I have submitted to legal tubes and first I got to give them half and secondly they dont convert as well. Also for tubes to over take tgps someone has to make a submitter.
Also I loved Shaven Ferrets pic post submitter, I was very sad when it was no more.

Ill lend you my glasses in a week or two and you will see.
Your thinking the old game.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by gonzo

Ill lend you my glasses in a week or two and you will see.
Your thinking the old game.

Considering there isnt a legal tube that makes any real money or has any real traffic to speak of. I cant see it. They keep giving full scenes for traffic the buyer pool will get smaller and smaller.

[Toby]

Originally Posted by tony404

Considering there isnt a legal tube that makes any real money...

Not a one? Are you sure?

[RawAlex]

Originally Posted by Toby

Not a one? Are you sure?

I am sure there are some legal tube sites that are making money, but to some extent their success may be artificial. Example, if you ran 5 bigger traffic TGPs and filtered off 10% of the traffic from each one through various means, you could have a tube site that gets a bunch of traffic. Structured correctly, that traffic would in theory convert likely as well as normal TGP traffic, maybe a little bit better because you can control what they see.

But if you look at pretty much every tube site, they are dependant to a huge degree on non-porn sales, upsales, and other techniques to make money, because they aren't very good methods to sell actual porn. Any method that might get used to filter down the traffic (such as limiting views per user, or through various mousetrapping methods) kills what the viewer would expect in a tube site, and therefore would limit traffic growth.

Tube sites face that simple problem (that TGPs faced originally) which is that you put too much free porn in a format that is too easy for the users to find, enjoy, and ultimately finish the task at hand with. There is no way you are selling porn to a guy that has already used the kleenex box. It's exponentially worse with a tube site, because you are not only presenting links to galleries (usually sponsor hosted) but you are now also having to host the videos, which incurs potentially significant costs on all those non-buyers.

So who do you think in the tube world is actually making money (and by making money, I mean getting more than 10% return on costs)?

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

I am sure there are some legal tube sites that are making money, but to some extent their success may be artificial. Example, if you ran 5 bigger traffic TGPs and filtered off 10% of the traffic from each one through various means, you could have a tube site that gets a bunch of traffic. Structured correctly, that traffic would in theory convert likely as well as normal TGP traffic, maybe a little bit better because you can control what they see.

But if you look at pretty much every tube site, they are dependant to a huge degree on non-porn sales, upsales, and other techniques to make money, because they aren't very good methods to sell actual porn. Any method that might get used to filter down the traffic (such as limiting views per user, or through various mousetrapping methods) kills what the viewer would expect in a tube site, and therefore would limit traffic growth.

Tube sites face that simple problem (that TGPs faced originally) which is that you put too much free porn in a format that is too easy for the users to find, enjoy, and ultimately finish the task at hand with. There is no way you are selling porn to a guy that has already used the kleenex box. It's exponentially worse with a tube site, because you are not only presenting links to galleries (usually sponsor hosted) but you are now also having to host the videos, which incurs potentially significant costs on all those non-buyers.

So who do you think in the tube world is actually making money (and by making money, I mean getting more than 10% return on costs)?

Why not just swap out those TGPs to become a tube site?

The presentation is simple as they do for Hollywood.
Think of your hotel spanktravision....they show you a clip over for several movies and you can pick up the remote and order it right then.

Why not have a tube site that does the very same thing?

[Toby]

Originally Posted by RawAlex

So who do you think in the tube world is actually making money (and by making money, I mean getting more than 10% return on costs)?

I'm not really sure that anyone is, or isn't, making money with a legal tube site.

I've read a number of claims that xtube does well, but with nothing to back up those claims.

The point of my reply to Tony was that there's no one in a position to know for sure that none are making money.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by tony404

Considering there isnt a legal tube that makes any real money or has any real traffic to speak of. I cant see it. They keep giving full scenes for traffic the buyer pool will get smaller and smaller.

I know of one that does both... and its not got full scenes.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by tony404

Considering there isnt a legal tube that makes any real money or has any real traffic to speak of. I cant see it. They keep giving full scenes for traffic the buyer pool will get smaller and smaller.

Here's a prediction. Sites that offer no more than a Tube offers, in the eyes of the consumer, will continue to lose traffic to Tubes.

The problem is not Tube sites. It's paysites that offer little more to the members than a Tube site. IN THE EYES OF THE CUSTOMERS. What ever you say about how marvellous our members areas are the truth is the members choosing Tubes don't agree with you.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

Here's a prediction. Sites that offer no more than a Tube offers, in the eyes of the consumer, will continue to lose traffic to Tubes.

The problem is not Tube sites. It's paysites that offer little more to the members than a Tube site. IN THE EYES OF THE CUSTOMERS. What ever you say about how marvellous our members areas are the truth is the members choosing Tubes don't agree with you.

If they dont spend money they arent customers and probably half the surfers on tubes arent old enough to have a credit card. THe key is going to be locking down content so its not so easy to take.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by tony404

If they dont spend money they arent customers and probably half the surfers on tubes arent old enough to have a credit card. THe key is going to be locking down content so its not so easy to take.

You got to be kidding right?

Im all for making content tougher to get but lets be realistic here... this business was started by people who populated pay sites with pics off the usenet or that scanned Penthouse magazines.

Usenet hasnt gone away as I can get the entire move for free there weeks before it is released. Locking content down just isnt possible.

Making it harder to copy is doable though.

People routinely screen scrape DRM protected movies all the time.
Pain in the ass but it happens.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by tony404

If they dont spend money they arent customers and probably half the surfers on tubes arent old enough to have a credit card. THe key is going to be locking down content so its not so easy to take.

If they don't spend money why do we spend so much time, money and effort targetting them to pass by?

The key is not locking down content, it's having content that's worth locking down.

Toby has got a solution. If you're just offering the same product as Tubes give away, why should a surfer getting it for free become a member spending money?

Think beyond where we are now.