The tide is turning agains GW Bush

[KeyGuy]

This is my first post and I know it will be controversial, but I have to say it. I think it is fascinating how fast the tide is turning against George W. Bush. It amazes me how quickly the voters can turn on an incumbent when the chips are down. It will be a miracle if Bush wins this election faced with all the information that is turning up in the media all of a sudden. My own opinion is the seminal moment will come when Farenheit 911 is released on video. I think a lot of Conservatives who would not be caught dead in a theatre will be renting it and viewing it in the privacy of their homes. Kind of like pornography. Ironic, isn't it?

[Almighty Colin]

Heya Keyguy,.

Welcome to the board. You posted something similar to what Raw Alex posted yesterday. I think its wishful thinking on your part. Anyway, here is my reply from yesterday.

"It just depends on your starting point and the story you want to tell. While it's true that Bush approval is down from 55% to 46% over the past year his approval is up from 41% to 46% since May. Despite the summer release of "Fahrenheit 911" and the Democratic Convention Bush's popularity has risen throughout the campaign season.

An anti-Bushite looks and says "Bush's approval is dropping". A Bushite looks and says "Bush's approval is rising". Both are right."

A side point. Bush approval his risen since Fahrenheit 911 came out. I don't think its been much of a factor.

[KeyGuy]

Originally posted by Colin@Aug 22 2004, 03:36 PM
Heya Keyguy,.

Welcome to the board. You posted something similar to what Raw Alex posted yesterday. I think its wishful thinking on your part. Anyway, here is my reply from yesterday.

"It just depends on your starting point and the story you want to tell. While it's true that Bush approval is down from 55% to 46% over the past year his approval is up from 41% to 46% since May. Despite the summer release of "Fahrenheit 911" and the Democratic Convention Bush's popularity has risen throughout the campaign season.

An anti-Bushite looks and says "Bush's approval is dropping". A Bushite looks and says "Bush's approval is rising". Both are right."

A side point. Bush approval his risen since Fahrenheit 911 came out. I don't think its been much of a factor.

Actually, its more of a gut feeling. I feel it all around me. Just bar room discussions. Stuff I see on the net. Radio talk shows. Editorials. It feels like a groundswell. I am not sure if the numbers add up to what I see, but I do believe there is a change coming. This is not propaganda, just an observation.

[Rolo]

I think its ironic that people are "voting against Bush" and not "voting for Kerry"... Kerry have not been able sell himself as visionary leader, and I think that says alot of the years ahead, if he should win the election.

I´m not a Bush supporter, however the irony that the US voters will treat the current "problem" with replacing one "visionless" leader with another "visionless" leader - that just screams for a sequel "down with the president" election in 2008 ;-)

[KeyGuy]

Originally posted by Rolo@Aug 22 2004, 03:42 PM
I think its ironic that people are "voting against Bush" and not "voting for Kerry"... Kerry have not been able sell himself as visionary leader, and I think that says alot of the years ahead, if he should win the election.

I´m not a Bush supporter, however the irony that the US voters will treat the current "problem" with replacing one "visionless" leader with another "visionless" leader - that just screams for a sequel "down with president" election in 2008 ;-)

Truthfully, we have no idea what Kerry can do. Just like we had no idea of what Bush could do when he was elected. Presidents can't be predicted, just anticipated.

[Mike AI]

The movie is hardly a worry for Bush, there are many other factors that are effecting his re-election.

October will be an interesting month.

[KeyGuy]

How do you think the debates will effect the results. Who do you think will win? That is another seminal moment.

[Rolo]

Since the debates will be between visionless leaders, then words, wits and arguments will not move voters... it will be the taller person who will move votes and win the presidential debates. Modern humans still use the same "alpha male" selection also used by apes, and here the taller/bigger ape always have the advantage

[RawAlex]

Colin, it isn't a numbers thing - it's a feeling. A year or so ago, you say anything against Bush, and you would get a serious beat down. You can go back and look at the archives of this board, pretty much everyone here was beating their chests and saying how great Bush the leader was.

Now I get a feeling of more and more people being less convinces, they speak with less conviction, etc. It's almost like people just don't believe him any more, and they are actually asking questions rather than just accepting the facts as presented.

It's weird, but it's in the air.

Alex

[KeyGuy]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Aug 22 2004, 04:07 PM
Colin, it isn't a numbers thing - it's a feeling. A year or so ago, you say anything against Bush, and you would get a serious beat down. You can go back and look at the archives of this board, pretty much everyone here was beating their chests and saying how great Bush the leader was.

Now I get a feeling of more and more people being less convinces, they speak with less conviction, etc. It's almost like people just don't believe him any more, and they are actually asking questions rather than just accepting the facts as presented.

It's weird, but it's in the air.

Alex

That is my point. It is in the air.

[Rolo]

1 year ago we didn´t have the new 2257 rules to think about

[PornoDoggy]

I've always thought that support for Bush was much like support for his father ... sometimes very broad but never very deep.

I would LIKE to agree with Alex and KeyGuy - but I wonder if what my gut is telling me isn't just what my head wants to hear.

It is almost to the point where even an October suprise could backfire on Bush. Suppose they do capture Osama, or find the elusive WMD - I think that as many marginal Bush supporters, not to mention the two dozen undecided voters left, would think it was PLANNED that way as would believe him.

[JoesHO]

I pray twice a ay for Bush to leave, I am going to up that to three a day next month, and five a day from then on out until the day.

[OldJeff]

Originally posted by Rolo@Aug 22 2004, 06:42 PM
I think its ironic that people are "voting against Bush" and not "voting for Kerry"... Kerry have not been able sell himself as visionary leader, and I think that says alot of the years ahead, if he should win the election.

I´m not a Bush supporter, however the irony that the US voters will treat the current "problem" with replacing one "visionless" leader with another "visionless" leader - that just screams for a sequel "down with the president" election in 2008 ;-)

I think that voting against one person or another is nothing new, I asked my father in law when the last time he voted FOR someone for president - his answer was JFK

As far as the "sequel" goes - that is exacty what our system is designed for.

What we really need is something to force real change - get another party or two in there.

Unfortunately as long as the Demicans and Republicrats (not sure who here coined that but I am using) control the rules for who is eligible to run, the 2 party system is here to stay.

Oh how I would love to see a true libertarian get elected.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Rolo@Aug 22 2004, 06:42 PM
I think its ironic that people are "voting against Bush" and not "voting for Kerry".

That's Bush's fault.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Aug 22 2004, 07:07 PM
Colin, it isn't a numbers thing - it's a feeling. A year or so ago, you say anything against Bush, and you would get a serious beat down. You can go back and look at the archives of this board, pretty much everyone here was beating their chests and saying how great Bush the leader was.

Now I get a feeling of more and more people being less convinces, they speak with less conviction, etc. It's almost like people just don't believe him any more, and they are actually asking questions rather than just accepting the facts as presented.

It's weird, but it's in the air.

Alex

The numbers support what you are saying, Alex. Compared to a year ago Bush's support IS down. He's been on an upswing for about three months now though. Three months ago, Kerry supporters on the boards were talking about Kerry taking over now and he might start to run away but now it's just become deadlocked. Abu Ghraib, Fahrenheit 911, rumors of a Powel resignation, rumors that Rumsfeld would be canned, Edwards as nominee, the Democratic Convention. These were the reasons that Kerry was going to pull ahead. Somehow Bush managed to gain ground during that time and pull it back to even. I would say because of lessening war coverage, the normal slow public reaction to economic news and some pretty good positioning by Rove and Company (Kerry flip flops). I myself started to lean Kerry until the convention and the normal class warfare troops came marching out. I know of a number of people who say the same thing.

Where will it go? Anyone's guess. Good solid factors on both sides of the argument. The biggest events left are the Republican Convention and the debates of which historically, the convention has the biggest effect on the election by far. However, as in the Kerry case, this seems like a year where the conventions will have less of an effect because of the polarity.

I agree with PD that Bush's support is not deep but I think the past 8 years change in the media has brought increasing polarity and support for one party or the other is deeper than normal.

Flip a coin on election day to make a prediction. That will probably do as well as the polls.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by KeyGuy@Aug 22 2004, 06:50 PM
How do you think the debates will effect the results. Who do you think will win? That is another seminal moment.

I'll take ...

Kerry 2, Bush 1
Cheney 1, Edwards 0

with little or no effect on the election. I think if Kerry can sweep Bush 3-0 or Bush can win 2-1 as the underdog (expectations play a roll) then there will be small effect.

[Meni]

Bush & Cheney attack Kerry's record in Vietnam
he was fuckin THERE
jesus
how do we not LAUGH at Bush who disappeared, and Cheney who was 'had other things"
this is ludicrous
bush on the ship, in his flight oufit
and in reality, he was a clown who didn't show for his physical

[SykkBoy]

After the Republican convention, we'll see a huge spike for Bush as people get swept up in the rah rah cheerleader crap (unless Paris Hilton's dog disappears again and dominates the news ;-)) and then it will taper out...

I've finally picked a side and unless there is a revelation that murdered 3 people and ate their eyes out with an ice cream scoop, I'll be voting for John Kerry.

I figure with a Republican controlled congress, Kerry is going to get gridlocked into a lot of non-action, but Bush's environmental record is horrid and my cause of choice: Yucca Mountain pushes me towards Kerry.

I'm quite sure if Kerry pulls it out, then in 2008, we'll get "Anybody But Kerry" shtick and McCain will run and get my first ever vote for a Republican....

[sperbonzo]

Originally posted by JoesHO1@Aug 22 2004, 06:27 PM
I pray twice a ay for Bush to leave, I am going to up that to three a day next month, and five a day from then on out until the day.

You know I love ya' Joesho..... But I have to tell you that I'm praying exactly the opposite way. Kerry's track record over the last 20 years scare's me silly. I'm really going to be nervous if he wins.

[grimm]

Originally posted by KeyGuy@Aug 22 2004, 03:50 PM
How do you think the debates will effect the results. Who do you think will win? That is another seminal moment.

If there is one thing Pesident Bush is bad at, it is debating and public speaking. he made al gore look like james carville in the last election. If the swell is against him. Kerry, the far better orator, and much quicker on his feet will hurt him.


Think Clinton/Bush

[grimm]

Originally posted by sperbonzo+Aug 23 2004, 10:10 AM-->