This is my first post and I know it will be controversial, but I have to say it. I think it is fascinating how fast the tide is turning against George W. Bush. It amazes me how quickly the voters can turn on an incumbent when the chips are down. It will be a miracle if Bush wins this election faced with all the information that is turning up in the media all of a sudden. My own opinion is the seminal moment will come when Farenheit 911 is released on video. I think a lot of Conservatives who would not be caught dead in a theatre will be renting it and viewing it in the privacy of their homes. Kind of like pornography. Ironic, isn't it?

Heya Keyguy,.

Welcome to the board. You posted something similar to what Raw Alex posted yesterday. I think its wishful thinking on your part. Anyway, here is my reply from yesterday.

"It just depends on your starting point and the story you want to tell. While it's true that Bush approval is down from 55% to 46% over the past year his approval is up from 41% to 46% since May. Despite the summer release of "Fahrenheit 911" and the Democratic Convention Bush's popularity has risen throughout the campaign season.

An anti-Bushite looks and says "Bush's approval is dropping". A Bushite looks and says "Bush's approval is rising". Both are right."

A side point. Bush approval his risen since Fahrenheit 911 came out. I don't think its been much of a factor.

Actually, its more of a gut feeling. I feel it all around me. Just bar room discussions. Stuff I see on the net. Radio talk shows. Editorials. It feels like a groundswell. I am not sure if the numbers add up to what I see, but I do believe there is a change coming. This is not propaganda, just an observation.

I think its ironic that people are "voting against Bush" and not "voting for Kerry"... Kerry have not been able sell himself as visionary leader, and I think that says alot of the years ahead, if he should win the election.

I´m not a Bush supporter, however the irony that the US voters will treat the current "problem" with replacing one "visionless" leader with another "visionless" leader - that just screams for a sequel "down with the president" election in 2008 ;-)

Truthfully, we have no idea what Kerry can do. Just like we had no idea of what Bush could do when he was elected. Presidents can't be predicted, just anticipated.

The movie is hardly a worry for Bush, there are many other factors that are effecting his re-election.

October will be an interesting month.

How do you think the debates will effect the results. Who do you think will win? That is another seminal moment.

Since the debates will be between visionless leaders, then words, wits and arguments will not move voters... it will be the taller person who will move votes and win the presidential debates. Modern humans still use the same "alpha male" selection also used by apes, and here the taller/bigger ape always have the advantage :awinky:

Colin, it isn't a numbers thing - it's a feeling. A year or so ago, you say anything against Bush, and you would get a serious beat down. You can go back and look at the archives of this board, pretty much everyone here was beating their chests and saying how great Bush the leader was.

Now I get a feeling of more and more people being less convinces, they speak with less conviction, etc. It's almost like people just don't believe him any more, and they are actually asking questions rather than just accepting the facts as presented.

It's weird, but it's in the air.

Alex

That is my point. It is in the air.

1 year ago we didn´t have the new 2257 rules to think about :awinky:

I've always thought that support for Bush was much like support for his father ... sometimes very broad but never very deep.

I would LIKE to agree with Alex and KeyGuy - but I wonder if what my gut is telling me isn't just what my head wants to hear.

It is almost to the point where even an October suprise could backfire on Bush. Suppose they do capture Osama, or find the elusive WMD - I think that as many marginal Bush supporters, not to mention the two dozen undecided voters left, would think it was PLANNED that way as would believe him.

I pray twice a ay for Bush to leave, I am going to up that to three a day next month, and five a day from then on out until the day. B)

I think that voting against one person or another is nothing new, I asked my father in law when the last time he voted FOR someone for president - his answer was JFK

As far as the "sequel" goes - that is exacty what our system is designed for.

What we really need is something to force real change - get another party or two in there.

Unfortunately as long as the Demicans and Republicrats (not sure who here coined that but I am using) control the rules for who is eligible to run, the 2 party system is here to stay.

Oh how I would love to see a true libertarian get elected.

That's Bush's fault.

The numbers support what you are saying, Alex. Compared to a year ago Bush's support IS down. He's been on an upswing for about three months now though. Three months ago, Kerry supporters on the boards were talking about Kerry taking over now and he might start to run away but now it's just become deadlocked. Abu Ghraib, Fahrenheit 911, rumors of a Powel resignation, rumors that Rumsfeld would be canned, Edwards as nominee, the Democratic Convention. These were the reasons that Kerry was going to pull ahead. Somehow Bush managed to gain ground during that time and pull it back to even. I would say because of lessening war coverage, the normal slow public reaction to economic news and some pretty good positioning by Rove and Company (Kerry flip flops). I myself started to lean Kerry until the convention and the normal class warfare troops came marching out. I know of a number of people who say the same thing.

Where will it go? Anyone's guess. Good solid factors on both sides of the argument. The biggest events left are the Republican Convention and the debates of which historically, the convention has the biggest effect on the election by far. However, as in the Kerry case, this seems like a year where the conventions will have less of an effect because of the polarity.

I agree with PD that Bush's support is not deep but I think the past 8 years change in the media has brought increasing polarity and support for one party or the other is deeper than normal.

Flip a coin on election day to make a prediction. That will probably do as well as the polls.

I'll take ...

Kerry 2, Bush 1
Cheney 1, Edwards 0

with little or no effect on the election. I think if Kerry can sweep Bush 3-0 or Bush can win 2-1 as the underdog (expectations play a roll) then there will be small effect.

Bush & Cheney attack Kerry's record in Vietnam
he was fuckin THERE
jesus
how do we not LAUGH at Bush who disappeared, and Cheney who was 'had other things"
this is ludicrous
bush on the ship, in his flight oufit
and in reality, he was a clown who didn't show for his physical

After the Republican convention, we'll see a huge spike for Bush as people get swept up in the rah rah cheerleader crap (unless Paris Hilton's dog disappears again and dominates the news ;-)) and then it will taper out...

I've finally picked a side and unless there is a revelation that murdered 3 people and ate their eyes out with an ice cream scoop, I'll be voting for John Kerry.

I figure with a Republican controlled congress, Kerry is going to get gridlocked into a lot of non-action, but Bush's environmental record is horrid and my cause of choice: Yucca Mountain pushes me towards Kerry.

I'm quite sure if Kerry pulls it out, then in 2008, we'll get "Anybody But Kerry" shtick and McCain will run and get my first ever vote for a Republican....

You know I love ya' Joesho..... But I have to tell you that I'm praying exactly the opposite way. Kerry's track record over the last 20 years scare's me silly. I'm really going to be nervous if he wins.

If there is one thing Pesident Bush is bad at, it is debating and public speaking. he made al gore look like james carville in the last election. If the swell is against him. Kerry, the far better orator, and much quicker on his feet will hurt him.


Think Clinton/Bush

You know I love ya' Joesho..... But I have to tell you that I'm praying exactly the opposite way. Kerry's track record over the last 20 years scare's me silly. I'm really going to be nervous if he wins. [/b][/quote]
just curious, but how does Bush's track record over the last 20, 10, and 4 years make you feel?

Hell, he evened owned 10% of the texas rangers;)

There is something to be said for attendance, thats for sure. Its easy to bark when you have a fence between you and danger. a lot harder when it isnt there

Just ask Pat Tillman

The numbers support what you are saying, Alex. Compared to a year ago Bush's support IS down. He's been on an upswing for about three months now though. Three months ago, Kerry supporters on the boards were talking about Kerry taking over now and he might start to run away but now it's just become deadlocked. Abu Ghraib, Fahrenheit 911, rumors of a Powel resignation, rumors that Rumsfeld would be canned, Edwards as nominee, the Democratic Convention. These were the reasons that Kerry was going to pull ahead. Somehow Bush managed to gain ground during that time and pull it back to even. I would say because of lessening war coverage, the normal slow public reaction to economic news and some pretty good positioning by Rove and Company (Kerry flip flops). I myself started to lean Kerry until the convention and the normal class warfare troops came marching out. I know of a number of people who say the same thing.

Where will it go? Anyone's guess. Good solid factors on both sides of the argument. The biggest events left are the Republican Convention and the debates of which historically, the convention has the biggest effect on the election by far. However, as in the Kerry case, this seems like a year where the conventions will have less of an effect because of the polarity.

I agree with PD that Bush's support is not deep but I think the past 8 years change in the media has brought increasing polarity and support for one party or the other is deeper than normal.

Flip a coin on election day to make a prediction. That will probably do as well as the polls. [/b][/quote]
the only numbers i trust are financial statements and point spreads;)

Straw Polls? come on


for those who want some history on straw polls


http://www.dmregister.com/news/stori...4/8617041.html


A straw poll is called such because an author coined the term when using this quote

"take a straw and throw it up into the air - you may see by that which way the wind is. More solid things do not show the complexion of the times so well"

i can take a straw outside and thrw it in the air, and probability will dictate one thing and one thing only, that it will blow the way it blows;)

If there is one thing Pesident Bush is bad at, it is debating and public speaking. he made al gore look like james carville in the last election. If the swell is against him. Kerry, the far better orator, and much quicker on his feet will hurt him. [/b][/quote]
Bush is a bad orator but not a debater. I think he has a good sense of humor and comes across as "down-to-earth". He did fine against Gore who trounced Kemp and beat Perot.

Gallup results.

1st debate Gore 48% Bush 41% (Gore by 7)
2nd debate Bush 49% Bush 36% (Bush by 13)
3rd debate Gore 46% Bush 44% (Gore by 2)

Kerry is considered a great debator but I think he lacks the personality of Bush. I've never seen a Kerry debate but I'll stick with Kerry 2, Bush 1.

Grimm, I don't think of it as a "poll" issue, it is much more subtle than that. It is a feeling that the cheerleaders have put down their pompoms and gone back to class. The stadium is still there, but the crowds are gone. A comment that would have got many people pummeled on the street 2 years ago "Bush lied about WMD" now goes past almost unnoticed.

It isn't an anti-bush feeling... it's hard to place, but it doesn't feel like people like Bush as much as they did, or that they don't trust him as much as they did.

Alex

I'll take the Gallup results based on a survey of 1000 over "having a feeling about it" based on asking six of my friends any day.

Alex, I think you're under operating under the premise that in the end everyone in the US is going to "get smart" and realize what a horrible leader George Bush is just like you. You're ignoring the fact that some people just have completely different viewpoints of the world. For half the US, Bush is more of the type of leader that will work for their view of the world than Kerry is.

Bush's support among Republicans is at or near record levels. Something like 85% of Republicans plan to vote for Bush and only 15% of Democrats. That is a historic split.

Let me know when "12 Clicks" plans to cast his ballot for Kerry.

Right. People used to fist-fight about Vietnam too but as time goes on it happens much less. You can't expect people to argue feverishly about it anymore.

"The tide is turning against Geoge Bush" was a strong statement 6 months ago but he's made a comeback. Kerry was unable to capitalize on the Democratic Convention or his choice of VP and now Bush the Republican Convention ahead of him.

It's an even race.

just curious, but how does Bush's track record over the last 20, 10, and 4 years make you feel?

Hell, he evened owned 10% of the texas rangers;) [/b][/quote]
I was worried about Bush's record in the last 20 years also....but I liked what he had done in Texas while govenor, especially his ability to pull together state legislators from both sides of the house.....(right now it looks like Kerry's own constituints are not going to vote for him!), and I really do like what he has done while in office.

And BTW, if you watch the origins of anti-porn regulation, eg on c-span, you will see that it is coming from BOTH sides of the fence, not just republicans. Don't fool yourself into thinking that this is a product of the current admin...this is a product of the mood of the country, and both parties are following suit.

sperbonzo: When it comes to porn regulations, there is a difference between "doing the will of the people" and "doing the work of a christian god". The republican party is the party of Ashcroft and Meese, the two most agressive haters of porn, nudity, and free speech you might ever meet. Every time you put in a republican president, you are more than likely going to get somene in the mix that will push an anti-porn agenda.

Thankfully, enough of the rest of the world hates republicans enough to give them wars and bullshit to handle outside of the country, so they never seem to entirely get around to screwing us entirely over. Although the Meese Commission almost did.

Some good history here:

http://home.earthlink.net/~durangodave/htm.../Censorship.htm

I will never say the democrats (or any politician for that matter) will openly be a friend of porn - but I know who the enemy is, and I cannot for the life of me figure out why anyone in this industry would vote themselves out of business.

Alex

If they agreed with your analysis that they'd be out of business they wouldn't vote Republican. You have more "if/then" statements in your declaration than you are letting on.

It's the judges, stupid.

Colin, PD gave you the answer... the supreme court is getting older (and closer to expiring in many cases). In all likelyhood, the next presidential term will see anywhere between 1 and 4 court judges replaced. Depending on who runs the house, the senate, and sits in the whitehouse, the very "freedoms" our business is based on might be brushed away. A favorable federal court system might let something like the new 2257 rules (like the old ones that got tossed) actually run for a while.

Yes, there are many if's between here and "out of business", but I know which direction a republican president takes us, because after almost 4 years, I think we all know which way we have gone.

Alex

Again, IF they agreed with your analysis that they'd be out of business they wouldn't vote Republican. I don't even think we'd all agree on "which way we have gone".

Here's the latest Gallup poll of Florida released yesterday by the way.

Likely voters. Bush 48. Kerry 46.

90% of Republicans plan to vote Bush, only 11% of Democrats plan to vote Bush. Wow.

I should check Utah for kicks.

What percentage of democrats say they are voting for Kerry?

Yes, a big part of it is Bush own doing, however that also means that it is Bush who got the attention of the people, so in "theory" he could still make a comeback since everyone is looking at him. Yeah, I know he is president, which puts Bush in the center of things, however if Kerry had been good, then Bush would have been buried deeper each time he had open his mouth, which would have made Bush look like he had already lost the election. Instead the Bush campaign have been able put up a fight with a mediocre politician as their frontfigure - I think that is impressive...

The democratic campaign is so focused on the "down with the president" strategy, that they put all attention on the current president, and if Bush had been more than a mediocre politician, then he could have crushed the democratic campaign...

It's kind of amusing to me to see the straws that people will grasp at.

It would not suprise me if every poll between now and the election stayed within a point or two of the margin of error. This sucker is too close to call, and probably will stay that way until the end.

I think there wont be many more swings, because i do not believer there are many more undecideds. I think they could go ahead and have the election today, and the results wouldnt vary more than 5% than when the election is held on Nov 2. the rah rahing is done, decideds are decideds, and i dont think there are anymore bumps or bounces to be found, unless it is negative.

as of today:

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 307 Bush 211

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I was worried about Bush's record in the last 20 years also....but I liked what he had done in Texas while govenor, especially his ability to pull together state legislators from both sides of the house.....(right now it looks like Kerry's own constituints are not going to vote for him!), and I really do like what he has done while in office.

And BTW, if you watch the origins of anti-porn regulation, eg on c-span, you will see that it is coming from BOTH sides of the fence, not just republicans. Don't fool yourself into thinking that this is a product of the current admin...this is a product of the mood of the country, and both parties are following suit. [/b][/quote]
I do not think bush was a very god governor of Texas. His business interests were almost complete failures without Sr.'s bailouts.

Someone posted the State of Texas census figures earlier so i wont bother to repost them, but they were abhorrent.


And that is justthe last decade. lI am not saying he was terrible or a criminal, he was just nothing to write home about.

the kind of guy who could go missing for a few months and noone would notice, no matter what office he held. a yes man, a schill for big oil definitely.

That's what I see too. We're in lockdown.

You will soon start seeing target ads aimed at (and polling data proving the lead by both sides) Korean-Brazilian-American Veterans of the Faulklands War, the Jewish Association of Left-Handed Florists, and Evangelical Cross-Eyed Buddists.

Well, it's early going yet.

If Bush was a great president, the numbers wouldn't look like this. He had 4 years, and the numbers suggest that not only has he not convinced anyone extra to vote for him, but that he is slipping in many of the battleground states. it isn't enough to call a Kerry landslide, but a good sitting president shouldn't be having to sweat this sort of campaign.

We get past the republican convention and September 11th, and then it will be fair game now until november (and that is when the real money get spent on TV!).

Anyone want to bet on Bin Ladin getting captured in the next 2 months?

Alex

I'll bet against. What's the wager?

Colin, shits and grins... $20 payable in Vegas?

Alex