IMHO, the
music industry could have used the technology, now they have fucked themselves.
**********************************
I think that's bs. If I had a nickel for every person who's put all the blame on the music industry about Napster with things like "They blew it man, like I would have had no problem paying a couple bucks to download my favorite songs from them
or paid like a monthly membership of
20 bucks to access their library"
Well duh-fucking-uh of course you have no problem paying pennies for a product u are now paying 10 dollars for sport. (not directed at geeky btw>
The music industry isn't in business for its health, and they have a right to charge whatever they feel they can for their material.
The costs of running a music company are high and it's risky business.
There are tons of porn surfers who use the same convenient excuse, they'd be willing to pay for good porn if it was a couple of bucks instead of 30 bucks a month.
It will lay waste to this business. The music industry has things going for it that this one doesn't, BIG money, political influence, the will, plus the fact that many people
want to pay for the original product and enjoy shopping for music and videos. Porn doesn't have that edge,
other than a small group of raincoaters nobody enjoys going into a video store and buying or renting porn. That's why the Internet was made for porn. I have no clue how the porn industry is going to fight it. Nobody cares about the porn industry, nobody is going to shed one tear when they read the news stories of the collapse of the online adult industry.
And I'm not talking about today, there will be a market for us for awhile yet. Five years out tho...............
One on one videoconferencing is the only part of this business being untouched. That part of the business will continue to grow.
mutt
Thu, 23 Aug - 19:19:30 63.49.128.198 Post #: 13685
btw KK....
I agree with your 80/20 theroy.
I have always been from the school where when you hit capacity you double your prices, lose half your business and become more profitable than ever and still have plenty of room to grow.
Thu, 23 Aug - 19:19:26 65.185.104.173 Post #: 13684
Hey Rick .. I say ..
we all get together ..
1. Take showers
2. Go to Taco Bell
3. Smoke on the strip in Lauderdale
with Stoner.
4. Get hungy again .. go to Charlie's.
5. Hit your wine cellar.
6. Go to hotel room lobby... sneak up for a smoke.
7. Get hungry again .. get some ribs.
Oh yeah .. leave me time to run to the mall and get some shoes.
Thu, 23 Aug - 19:16:49 216.67.207.69 Post #: 13681
Howdy Sykk.... dark dollars looks great, congrats!
I think that there is nothing like the p2p revolution... it really dwarfs the free sites, the free hosts, tgps, etc. Since these kids grew up with Napster, they all know and use programs like Morpheus, Bearshare, etc., so why would they bother to join anything, IF they are even of legal age? A whole generation is growing up thinking that they will never pay for music, or for porn. IMHO, the music industry could have used the technology, now they have fucked themselves.
geeky the squirrel knows ;-))))
Thu, 23 Aug - 19:12:45 63.49.128.198 Post #: 13680
TOPIC: Learn about TGP2
GUESTS:
Forest Williams Pres. and CEO of PFC Communications Inc
Ulfie from http://www.PornGang.com
Tonight is the night we talk about the TGP2 movement. There has been some argument about who came up with the idea and when, but there is no question about the impact this idea has made! We'll talk about what a TGP2 is and how you can get involved!
In addition Forest will discuss his golf outing & Party plans for Miami's CyberNetExpo!
Be sure to tune in at http://www.maxcashlive.com. You can log in our chat via our Java interface or IRC at:
server: forums.maxcash.com
port: 7000
room: #maxcashlive
Thu, 23 Aug - 19:06:35 65.185.104.173 Post #: 13674
geeky, I agree
what I'm doing with the P2P stuff is a small effort, but also gerat fun..I'm taking a bucnh of bullshit images and giving them porn names and opening them up to bearshare, kazaa, etc. essentially flooding them with useless pictures :) when people start downloading those images, it adds even more garbage as people try to access their images, etc. SykkBoyhow many times must a man look up until he just doesn't see
Thu, 23 Aug - 19:05:59 216.67.207.69 Post #: 13673
Geeky! How the hell are you?!
Anyway, like to continue the convo, but some heavy-butt thunderstorms just rolled in, so I'm out of here for awhile.
Thu, 23 Aug - 19:05:34 209.246.209.213 Post #: 13672
Anthony .. I'm wise enough to recognize brilliance when i see it .. no matter how long someone has been around .. yours was overpowering.
Colin Ask Me .. I dare you!
Thu, 23 Aug - 19:05:03 24.164.51.72 Post #: 13671
I might be wrong about how that math distribution works .. I just wrote a program to simulate it .. and it doesn't look right at all.
Colin
Thu, 23 Aug - 19:03:15 24.164.51.72 Post #: 13670
I remember too. You were teaching newbies by then Ant. And I was yelling DEADLINE in your ear! :-)
Colin, yes the number of webmasters coming in also explains the glut. We debated on last week's show whether or not webmaster resources by helping newbies helped or hurt the industry. It's in the SP archives. :-)
Mike, there always needs to be fresh blood circulating. I agree totally with Grimm about this.
The longer this industry exists, the lesser chance a newbie coming in wet behind the ears three months from now, six, twelve, twenty-four, will stand a chance to get X amount of money per month. I (seriously) know Colin must have at theory to explain what I mean.
But there will always be prodgies among any group as well. The prodigy/mutant factor. Again, I think I'm giving Colin article ideas here. :-)
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:56:21 209.246.209.213 Post #: 13669
Damn good conversation going on here! In my opinion, the biggest threat to profits is the peer-to-peer file-sharing programs, which I would think will lower this fall's college student revenue and traffic.
I agree with Mike AL <g>, and Grimm that there has to be innovation and flexibility to survive and thrive, as it is with any business.
geeky the squirrel knows ;-))))
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:54:04 63.49.128.198 Post #: 13668
Fick off Colin, I remember you asking me for a javascript when I twas nothing but a 3 month old newbie. =oP
Anthony
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:52:55 208.181.212.140 Post #: 13667
Here's how that 80/20 thing works.
Take $1 million and 20 people. At random, pick one of the 20 people and give them a buck. Repeat one million times. When you're done, 20% of the people will have 80% of the wealth.
It's weird, you would think the appearance of randomness wouldn't show up in something that is so intuitively not random.
Like baseball batting averages. They're distribution looks normal (randomly distributed). BUT our intuition is that Tony Gwynn is an exceptional player .. because he is a GREAT BATTER .. but .. according to the distributions .. you would EXPECT there to be a Tony Gwynn.
This has always been sort of a mystery to me .. why do things in nature appear to be random when they are so intuitively NOT?
I'm so happy Anthony's here .. I don't get to see him enough :)_
Colin Ask Me .. I dare you!
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:46:31 24.164.51.72 Post #: 13665
All business will continue to have new blood brought in. I am not the best of touch with modern newbs but I do not see any of them becoming the next industry giants...
However with hard work, and innovation, and more hardwork they could scratch out a living.
The problem is the newbs, and many of the people who have been around for a long time keep pushing the envelope in desperation - they start acting unethical and start spamming, or playing games with credit cards, or whatever...
Mike AI
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:46:23 65.34.84.86 Post #: 13664
I beg to differ Dravyk... You must be referring to someone else, I remember where I was in 6 months in this biz. =o)
Anthony
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:45:29 208.181.212.140 Post #: 13663
I mean .. it might be the shear number of webmasters that are in this that are fuck*in everything up as much as the free content.
If the webmasters increase at a faster rate than the surfers .. that alone will decrease ratios. Everyone and their mom owns sites. My mom owns pornsites, no shit .. does yours?
Grimm, I've seen the "newbies" over at Voltar's board, for instance. Somehow those newbies of six months old in the biz there are NOT at the level that we were all at six months in the biz. They are at the level we were at two years into the biz.
Or, as someone who took a sabitical from adult, and came back in and looked at Voltar's board said recently. "I left the third grade class and they were doing their times tables. I come back into the third grade class and suddenly their doing quantum mechanics. WTF happened??"
The newbies of today, some of them at least, are on the fast track. And they're coming up so quickly a lot of us will be saying in six months, "where the hell did s/he come from?"
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:39:18 209.246.209.213 Post #: 13657
Not to be a pessimist yet again Grimm -- but if I don't leave this office now, I'll never make my flight to Miami --
;-}}}
I'm always interested in your theories and ideas, so I'll try to at least check in from my house before I head out of town --
KK
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:38:30 64.38.194.18 Post #: 13656
That's Mr. Twink to you Grimm! =o)
I'll borrow Red's 100, that way you get to kiss both cheeks at one sitting. =o)
Anthony
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:37:34 208.181.212.140 Post #: 13655
Grimm--
No more in my backyard than yours. If CCBill customers decided to make such a move, it's not our place to tell them to do this or not to do this.
Processors incur just as much in costs weeding out fraud and bad transactions as webmaster programs do, perhaps even more since we sometimes serve both roles depending on our clients.
As I said to start with, this is nothing more than a hypothetical discussion. Everyone talks about how something has to change or things will get worse -- while things are getting worse.
As for the 100 accounts vs. 10,000 accounts question? I've yet to see any industry that didn't follow the 80-20 rule.
KK
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:35:55 64.38.194.18 Post #: 13654
you all may have 100 joins, but you'll always be a twink to me:) grimmFSN
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:35:40 24.14.133.26 Post #: 13653
Anthony..which cheek should i kiss first?;) grimmFSN
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:33:52 24.14.133.26 Post #: 13652
Grimm,
So me, Nick, Red, and TechNick, can all be Gods now? With 100 each? =o)
Anthony
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:33:05 208.181.212.140 Post #: 13651
Its a throwback, and it can bring back the fun of the old days. I for one would LOVE to see that:) grimmFSN
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:32:35 24.14.133.26 Post #: 13650
Anthony...hell no! 100+ a day is a god now:) a player is someone who is getting it done, on top of their game. I was using KK's example of 100+ a day, thats all.
So KK, should we all just fold up shop and give up? I dont think so, the money is still pretty good, and it beats selling insurance or teaching.
Pessimism lies in the hearts of the uninspired. Get some new fuel for the fire, and things can look up.
Things are the way they are. They arent as good as they once were, but they arent terrible either. we are all doing ok. Now is the time for new innovations, building of new foundations of revenue, traffic, conversions, and retention.
a spark of innovation that comes from somewhere between 6 years ago when we all started, adn 2 years ago, when we all quit trying to change things.
>>> Let me qualify something else -- I NEVER said that exit traffic went to similar sites -- I said that exit traffic went to sponsors of the same caliber --- many of whom have many many different sites, and who also could take the time to develop as many smaller sub niche sites as they needed to profit, if they weren't devoting all that time and effort to canning cheaters and keeping their bottom line even.
KK, clarification noted. :-) However I don't think a sub-niched site devoted to, oh let's say Ebony BBWs, Pregnant Lesbians, or Hairy Asian Slaves ... would be considered of "the same caliber" as (fill in a well-known megasite here). They would however be FOR THEIR NICHE the best.
Also, depsite the multisite glut of top sponsor diversification that's happened this past year and is about to escalate (I predict by March no less than eight sponsors will have 100 paysites in each of their stables) -- I still doubt that they will all be of the same quality as some little guy out there somewhere who is a big fan of (fill in name of niche or subniche here) that's been doing it well for several years.
I am sure zoosex and preteen girls posing nude has brought a lot of attention to this industry too, as well as a lot of crap.
the "proliferation" is everywhere, even, no especially, in your backyard...
are you speaking as a representative of ccbill? Are you going to fleece your own masses to come up with this ideal scenario... can you really make as much processing for 100 accounts than you can 10,000 accounts? how do you know you arent going to exclude someone who will be the next 100+ guy?
YEah, there is a lot of crap, but there is also a lot of good out there. to wholesale cut it off is cutting your own nose off to spite your face. It just isnt so easy anymore, there is a lot more crap to sift through and margins are slimmer... grimmFSN
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:27:18 24.14.133.26 Post #: 13644
Most people start off as small fish... then when an opportunity opens up they seize it. We have seen the baton pased the past few years from one top player to the next.
The opportunities usually arrive when other companies stumble, get lazy, or have the FTC sicced on them....
Mike AI
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:23:39 65.34.84.86 Post #: 13643
So you think that we should just continue on with the influx of crap that's gotten us to this point, perhaps until we drown in our own by-products?
It could be said that you, as much as anyone, have contributed greatly to the whole mess -- with the freehosts and the proliferation of waste that comes from them.
Of course it could (and is) also said by some that I contribute just as much, since recurring payouts allow people with no money to do business, the same as a freehost does.
If you look around now, there are way fewer people in both number and percentage that realize the business is about dollars and not about the number of hits to a counter --
KK
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:23:30 64.38.194.18 Post #: 13642
Yeah .. one bad sign is that *I'm* wearing a pessimistic hat nowadays.
Everyone knows I'm Mr. Optimist!
I'm looking for uptrends in a downmarket right now.
MAYBE .. we just all got too used to making easy money .. I mean .. we don't say the Restaurant business sucks just because 50% fail within 3 years (or whatever the real number is). In a way .. this is a dose of reality .. a turning more in line with the rest of the world than this Porno-Disney fanasty world we've been living in the past 6 years.
Get disgusted and go do something else perhaps, but not just disappear.
Plenty of the new guys, with their 'pickup' sponsors or their small paysites would most likely end up with the larger sponsors anyway --
and those that didn't might just go on to become the larger sponsors of next year --
We're talking about two different things here-- one being a short term shakeout to get the industry out of the landslide its seeing right now -- and the other being a building of a new hierarchy almost, one for the next few years. The two aren't mutually exclusive but they aren't completely compatible with things the way they are now either --
I just had lunch with a few people that I consider to be quite smart and who understand business as well as the industry. Straight from one of their mouths was --
This industrys going to crash.
There have been people saying it forever but the optimists are fewer in number than before I think.
Bottom line with my hypothetical proposal is do you cut off a leg thats only starting to gangrene or do you wait until the infections spread to do something about it?
KK
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:14:24 64.38.194.18 Post #: 13637
Nope Colin, as a huge fan of both, I could pretty pick out what was what...Spielberg mainly had all the Pinochio allusions and Kubrick's stuff was the darker, colder stuff...
KK..they dont disappear? io beg to differ. plus their traffic dries up, stops converting, etc... new fresh faces bring innovation in marketing and traffic delivery. the small geniuses of today are the 100+ join guys of tomorrow grimmFSN
Thu, 23 Aug - 18:02:21 24.14.133.26 Post #: 13633
Turnover's not really that much of an issue at the level we're talking about Grimm -- the people that can send 100+ joins a day don't come out of nowhere and they don't usually disappear, at least not overnight --
The option for the 'new blood' so to speak would be to either start their own paysites or go with what I mentioned as the 'pickup' sponsors --
Anyone who was really producing would soon figure out they could make more by going to the bigger sponsors (or maybe not) so you'd still have growth. Just not rampant growth of an unproductive nature...
KK
Thu, 23 Aug - 17:58:26 64.38.194.18 Post #: 13632
KK .. first time I've thought of this .. so I didn't get to bring it up in our conversation yesterday.
What about holding onto the smaller webmasters that are drinking milk and will one day be big?
Like .. Hitler had the Hitler youth .. he knew that .. he had to have a hold on the next generation coming up (first example I thought of).
Do you think that by ignoring the smaller webmasters, you'll eventually lose the class?
A more economics driven example is Pepsi targetting younger drinkers starting in the 70's because they replace the older one.
Strangest double-use of "Next Generation" in history?
KK... how do you solve the problem with turnover, since it is so fast in this industry. Isolationist policy will only work if your internal resources wont run out...
so you attract the herd, thin them out and keep what you want. which is why they target such large numbers
Serge...there isnt a lot that will help that crazy bastard:)
>>>I'd advice him to get hooked with Jordan and take it from there. >>
Serge, now there's a pearl :))
Tonda what a sweet baby!! Were the labor pains a bitch? hehe looking forward to tomorrow night. Shok is paying, Brad so I hope they have at least 40 different appetizers. I am ready! RRREDJoin4free
Thu, 23 Aug - 17:48:22 24.176.66.99 Post #: 13628
Enforcer? you wound me...
you're saying Sixth Sense and AI were good? Sixth Sense was ok, but Stir Of Echoes was better and AI wasn't too bad, but it just felt schizophrenic, you could pick apart everything that was Kubrick's from what was Speilberg's...it became a game we played during the movie "Speilberg or Kubrick"
and I still stand by my view of "Cannibal Campground" as best of 2001 so far...although I'm sure Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back could go over that and I have high hopes for Bubble Boy as well ;)))) SykkBoyhow many times must a man look up until he just doesn't see
Thu, 23 Aug - 17:47:51 216.67.207.69 Post #: 13627
Thu, 23 Aug - 17:46:59 209.143.51.21 Post #: 13626
"THis would be smart BUT everyone knows that size does matter when it comes to webmaster programs. and you have to fleece the masses to fiond the good apples that will contribute to that 80%. And what better way to attract those apples than by saying "we pay out 25 thousand webmasters every month" IT sounds better than "we pay out 500 good webmasters every month":) "
---------------
But Grimm, why would it matter how many webmasters you paid out or what you said? You'd already have more than 80% of your deals in place... ;)
Let me qualify something else -- I NEVER said that exit traffic went to similar sites -- I said that exit traffic went to sponsors of the same caliber --- many of whom have many many different sites, and who also could take the time to develop as many smaller sub niche sites as they needed to profit, if they weren't devoting all that time and effort to canning cheaters and keeping their bottom line even.
There is a name I haven't heard in a long time - BobX - how is he? where is he?
Grimm, Forest, Confuscy, MikeAI, Brad, and all the lurkers I did like to here your feedback on my baby - http://www.cyberspasm.com I know what you are thinking (OMG another webmaster resource!, true okay but this is one with a different flavor with a specific target, besides, I needed a good place to share all my articles) MelissaD(Nobody is better than me!) <---- In case you need proof
Serge..i think yours more than mine, but who is counting?:)
grimm
**********
Grimm, all this talk makes me really hungry!
give guys a call and ask what is the weather where they are...I think it rains today
;-)))
Serge
Thu, 23 Aug - 17:27:46 12.89.182.230 Post #: 13616
Donny wants to spray your trailer Serge.
*************
I'll let him practice on Webfather's trailer first.....
Serge
Thu, 23 Aug - 17:26:13 12.89.182.230 Post #: 13615
meni..yeah i remember when you were divorcing jill grimmFSN
Thu, 23 Aug - 17:26:00 24.14.133.26 Post #: 13614
Serge..i think yours more than mine, but who is counting?:) grimmFSN
Thu, 23 Aug - 17:25:33 24.14.133.26 Post #: 13613
i bet you had between a 15-20% leak in hits. but the BOTTOM LINE added up:)
grimm
**********
mine or yours?
;-)))
Serge
Thu, 23 Aug - 17:24:30 12.89.182.230 Post #: 13612
OK, with Meni released and going to the gym,
I'll go for some turkish food too
;-0))
Serge
Thu, 23 Aug - 17:23:08 12.89.182.230 Post #: 13611
Serge, the jokes about marriage, are not jokes.
We are still friends. And I have Morgan almost 40% of the time.
Donny wants to spray your trailer Serge.
He does a bang up job on MikeW's home. And JoeE's, but Donny's not sure if Joe still lives there.
And his company does CEN old office, and I think the new office.
OK Serge, I'm not punching out.
I'm going to the gym.
Meni
*********
OK, you may go now...
;-)
Serge
Thu, 23 Aug - 17:19:23 12.89.182.230 Post #: 13605
brad..no i think shaving has actually gone down, which makes it kind of amusing when someone does shave a lot, they stick out like a sore thumb. grimmFSN