When will it be lights out for the paysite model?

[Evil Chris]

I doubt the paysite model will disappear entirely but based on trends (plummeting ratios, etc.) it would seem that the monthly membership model will all but be replaced by different billing schemes and variable presentation of premium content.

This article got me thinking about it:
http://www.xbiz.com/news/128448

[Toby]

I've been saying more or less the same thing for about two years now.

[housekeeper]

It would be difficult to argue the consumer doesn't embrace this platform as a primary or preferred means of personal entertainment, as they once did. Seems the sites featuring exclusive content that have been around the longest continue to flourish, it's simply gotten harder to re-invent the proverbial porn wheel so to speak.

In my niche solo shemale paysites are booming right now, largely due to the quality of the sites and social media, in addition to the fact that girls travel extensively and meet their fans in many different cities.

[RawAlex]

More programs are (smartly) moving to revshare on fixed length memberships. Rather than risking it all on a fixed payout and hoping for retention, I am seeing more sites pushing longer memberships (usually 90 days) with a reasonable price tag.

I have seen a few programs try to operate PPV or VOD style deals, but I am not sure if it is really working for them.

Part of the issues these days may also revolve around the shift away from laptops and onto Ipad style devices. Bestbuy reported poor sales for November, in part because of the "freeze out" of laptop sales. The adult industry still tends to treat Ipad people as "mobile", but it isn't really the case. There is also the shift as a result from pure browsing and into App browsing, which tends to keep people from visiting outside of their original space. Plus of course, Apple doesn't like flash, which disqualifies many of those users from visiting tube sites, etc. It just discourages use.

It also causes issues for the live chat sites, many of which use flash video to show their product. Guess what? It's not working on the IPad.

I am seeing some encouraging signs though. Some programs are actively promoting new content, some that I haven't seen active in a while are back with new content, and the narrowing of the field tends to help.

Oh yeah, it appears that Niche Money died last night.

[gonzo]

I think the paysite model is getting a tune up.
I agree with most of the points brought up in the thread.

This industry is CLUELESS about what it will take to get mobile over.
No one wants to innovate the next generation of sites to exploit mobile consumers. Too many look at it as a screen resolution and bitrate issue.

I see it as an app issue.

I think the next combination of great sites will take advantage of viewing video on your big screen tv as one component of interest. But then again what would I know about video on demand . . .

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by housekeeper

It would be difficult to argue the consumer doesn't embrace this platform as a primary or preferred means of personal entertainment, as they once did. Seems the sites featuring exclusive content that have been around the longest continue to flourish, it's simply gotten harder to re-invent the proverbial porn wheel so to speak.

In my niche solo shemale paysites are booming right now, largely due to the quality of the sites and social media, in addition to the fact that girls travel extensively and meet their fans in many different cities.

Shameless plug... if your looking for some new shemale and tranny stars then I might suggest promoting FuryCash's CultofDesade. Lots of faces in that niche that I havent seen before.

[Hell Puppy]

The economy designed around $30-40+ auto recurring memberships is definitely on life support at this point, but it's not necessarily the idea of a "membership site" that is the disease.

First problem is the affiliate model is broken due to what are now inviable pay out models. I daresay it's impossible to run a $40 PPS program selling $30-40 membership rates without either shaving or stuffing the hell out of any valid credit card number you get your hands on.

Second problem is exactly that...hidden cross sells and other shenanigans with cards have created a major trust issue with the customers. Many get bitten once, have to get a new credit card number, and are lost to the industry for future buys forever. Frankly, the adult industry is lucky to still be able to process a credit card at all, especially via iPSP.

Third problem is the price points. At $30-40 per month, you're asking more than what basic cable costs. You're asking for over twice what HBO gets. And you're coming in at 5 times the lowest Netflix tier. Sure, adult content carries a premium price even on things like spanktrovision, but in this economy this is a consideration price point where we should be going for an impulse price point.

And lastly, we're increasingly becoming very accustomed to on demand and ala carte delivery of our entertainment. Adult used to innovate, but it's sucking hind tit these days.

[LAJ]

DVD sales have been tanking for years. That article didn't really get me thinking about anything lol.

[tony404]

I think the model wont die. Recurring model is all over the place gyms, cable, etc. I just think alot less will be doing it and aff payouts will have to be based in reality. When you look at adult it was a very small community for along time. I think its going to go back to that.
The only scary thing as people start to get desperate, they will start giving away the house in hopes for sale. That model doesnt work.

[softball]

The "recurring" billing "model" is simply a subscription billing plan that has been around as long as magazines and newspapers. As for paysites disappearing...who knows. I don't think so, but long memberships are doing very well at the moment.
Which leads me to a thought....I will start a new thread

[RawAlex]

Originally Posted by tony404

I think the model wont die. Recurring model is all over the place gyms, cable, etc. I just think alot less will be doing it and aff payouts will have to be based in reality. When you look at adult it was a very small community for along time. I think its going to go back to that.
The only scary thing as people start to get desperate, they will start giving away the house in hopes for sale. That model doesnt work.

Ding! You hit it exactly. There are shifts, there are differences, but in the end, the recurring model is still a very strong concept.

However, it is clear - margins are smaller. I would prefer a 50% (or even 30%) cut of a small monthly amount if it was retaining more people.

I think the adult industry needs to work on cleaning up the credit card processing end of things, perhaps coming up with a some sort of framework to give users assurances that their card won't get slammed. Epoch or CCBill could really make a difference if they banned all forms of cross bill or pre-check cross sales, and worked harder to restrict card and user info to their hands only. It seems that too much information is being obtained by site owners who are able to just plug it into their next billing program and slam people's cards.

[EmporerEJ]

Originally Posted by gonzo

This industry is CLUELESS about what it will take to get mobile over.
No one wants to innovate the next generation of sites to exploit mobile consumers. Too many look at it as a screen resolution and bitrate issue.

I see it as an app issue.

I think the next combination of great sites will take advantage of viewing video on your big screen tv as one component of interest. But then again what would I know about video on demand . . .

I agree here that it's an app issue, but also, you MUST have a good, safe payment model for mobile. An incremental model. Something for 99 cents"ish"

Now, your big screen holds more promise. But the obvious, "set top box" ain't gonna get it done. (As NOOF found out, to their loss.)
Can't make that work, and not because of price or tech.
You got to get it into a Roku box, locked away. Otherwise, too many "questions" about "what that box is," or "What's this channel, Dad/Husband?"

Convergence of the two? Possibly. There's a move to that. (Mobile device to Hd output.) But it's got to just WORK. Not be screwing around with connections, and figuring crap out.

Gotta grease the porn ramp. (No pun intended)

[tony404]

Originally Posted by gonzo

I think the paysite model is getting a tune up.
I agree with most of the points brought up in the thread.

This industry is CLUELESS about what it will take to get mobile over.
No one wants to innovate the next generation of sites to exploit mobile consumers. Too many look at it as a screen resolution and bitrate issue.

I see it as an app issue.

I think the next combination of great sites will take advantage of viewing video on your big screen tv as one component of interest. But then again what would I know about video on demand . . .

I can see it as look whats on my phone but people jacking to their phones nope. That's why it doesnt take off. Also everything doesnt have to be about porn. I know its shocking lol. The 99 cent model doesnt work for porn because you cant do the numbers to make it work. Its not like a song selling that song for 99 cents on itunes is a very small part of how the artist makes income.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by tony404

I can see it as look whats on my phone but people jacking to their phones nope. That's why it doesnt take off. Also everything doesnt have to be about porn. I know its shocking lol. The 99 cent model doesnt work for porn because you cant do the numbers to make it work. Its not like a song selling that song for 99 cents on itunes is a very small part of how the artist makes income.

Free works and I imagine the possibilities.

[EmporerEJ]

Originally Posted by tony404

I can see it as look whats on my phone but people jacking to their phones nope. That's why it doesnt take off. Also everything doesnt have to be about porn. I know its shocking lol. The 99 cent model doesnt work for porn because you cant do the numbers to make it work. Its not like a song selling that song for 99 cents on itunes is a very small part of how the artist makes income.

I heard that same crap back in 1987 when I was buying VHS tapes, DELIVERED, for about $1.85.

Today, I can buy DVDs, DELIVERED, in about the 70-80 cents range without looking. I'm betting if I spent some time? I could go 50 cents. And that's physical media delivered. This is the thing the "online" world never "got."

The old boys, who used to shoot on film, then moved "direct to tape," to be cost effective, know exactly how much value content has. There are hundreds of thousands of catalog titles out there, and they'd be happy to get 25 cents for a license.

99 cents? oh yea. That's gonna be the "retail" sales level at some point, real soon.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by EmporerEJ

I heard that same crap back in 1987 when I was buying VHS tapes, DELIVERED, for about $1.85.

Today, I can buy DVDs, DELIVERED, in about the 70-80 cents range without looking. I'm betting if I spent some time? I could go 50 cents. And that's physical media delivered. This is the thing the "online" world never "got."

The old boys, who used to shoot on film, then moved "direct to tape," to be cost effective, know exactly how much value content has. There are hundreds of thousands of catalog titles out there, and they'd be happy to get 25 cents for a license.

99 cents? oh yea. That's gonna be the "retail" sales level at some point, real soon.

It already is for most of the world.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by EmporerEJ

I heard that same crap back in 1987 when I was buying VHS tapes, DELIVERED, for about $1.85.

Today, I can buy DVDs, DELIVERED, in about the 70-80 cents range without looking. I'm betting if I spent some time? I could go 50 cents. And that's physical media delivered. This is the thing the "online" world never "got."

The old boys, who used to shoot on film, then moved "direct to tape," to be cost effective, know exactly how much value content has. There are hundreds of thousands of catalog titles out there, and they'd be happy to get 25 cents for a license.

99 cents? oh yea. That's gonna be the "retail" sales level at some point, real soon.

1987 the industry was how much smaller? Also I was a porn buyer in 87 and no one was giving porn away for super cheap. So the idea 99 cents will be the hot retail model is the path for failure. We arent music.we cant go on tour and sell t shirts. Nothing can compete with free and 5 million closed credit cards. The problem is people are getting desperate and its going to be the race to the bottom.

[RawAlex]

Interestingly, I see a very odd problem coming up: If there are fewer programs and fewer content producers, in theory there will be less content for the tubes. At some point, the free bubble bursts when they have milked the cow dry.

[housekeeper]

Originally Posted by tony404

people jacking to their phones nope. That's why it doesnt take off.

I'm of the firm belief that people most certainly will be jacking off to their phones, and that will be the big attraction. Guys will going into the stalls at their jobs and hacking their carrots, sitting on the train on the way to work in the morning viewing mobile porn and nudging their noodles. A guy may go to pick up his girl from her night job, and while he waits in the car decides to pull it out and work it. Any nook or cranny that offers the slightest bit of privacy will be the perfect venue to a quick mobile stroke.

Once the billing and delivery methods have been solidified, it will be on. Keep in mind there are a lot of married men and people living in homes where they're unable to watch porn at their leisure, mobile porn will be like a walking peep-show.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by housekeeper

I'm of the firm belief that people most certainly will be jacking off to their phones, and that will be the big attraction. Guys will going into the stalls at their jobs and hacking their carrots, sitting on the train on the way to work in the morning viewing mobile porn and nudging their noodles. A guy may go to pick up his girl from her night job, and while he waits in the car decides to pull it out and work it. Any nook or cranny that offers the slightest bit of privacy will be the perfect venue to a quick mobile stroke.

Once the billing and delivery methods have been solidified, it will be on. Keep in mind there are a lot of married men and people living in homes where they're unable to watch porn at their leisure, mobile porn will be like a walking peep-show.

I dont see the phones but I do see android tablets.

[Toby]

Originally Posted by gonzo

I dont see the phones but I do see android tablets.

Tablets that aren't 'locked' in to buying apps at the Apple App Store will be a game changer in that market.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by gonzo

I dont see the phones but I do see android tablets.

for an android tablet they dont need an app they can use a browser just like a laptop.

[MikeSouth]

I think you will see more sites doing what Im doing with stripperfacials.com

9.99 per month, 2 updates a week, streaming only, new content only stays up for 1 month then gets rotated off for 6 months before it returns. Its HD and dvd quality SD on the older scenes it scales to your bandwidth or lets you pic your bandwidth. at any given time theres 25-30 scenes available so its kinda like HBO or something. Im doing pretty well with it and once the users figure it out they love it because they can use their gaming systems to stream it to their HDTVs

now when HDTVs get a browser....Im ready

[softball]

I like that site, Mike.

[DPTKID]

Originally Posted by MikeSouth

now when HDTVs get a browser....Im ready

I will be ready too haha..."It puts the lotion on the skin".