How will the recession effect our industry?

[Forest]

they say our biz in based on impulse buys. Will a recession effect us dramatically?

[bluemoney]

There's always "meat to be beat"

[Toby]

Might actually help a littlle. People staying at home more instead of spending money going out. $25/month for a paysite membership is cheap compared to going out to a bar/club a couple of times a week.

Also, a good chunk of my traffic is European. The same $25.00 membership that cost €19.20 a year ago, costs only €16.90 today.

[Rcourt64]

Originally Posted by bluemoney

There's always "meat to be beat"

As if this industry serves another purpose?????

Fucking porn is not considered a necessity commodity for society. neither is the Internet for that matter. if another recession falls into effect, this industry would sink

[bluemoney]

Originally Posted by Rcourt64

. . . . if another recession falls into effect, this industry would sink

BULLFUCKINSHIT!! Tobacco, Alcohol & Porn are a mainstay in this economy.
John Q Public may cut back on a lot of shit, but he's always going to have the ability to get drunk, beat his meat and have a smoke afterword.

[Forest]

Originally Posted by Rcourt64

As if this industry serves another purpose?????

Fucking porn is not considered a necessity commodity for society. neither is the Internet for that matter. if another recession falls into effect, this industry would sink

another newb county heard from

[cosmiccat]

Originally Posted by bluemoney

BULLFUCKINSHIT!! Tobacco, Alcohol & Porn are a mainstay in this economy.
John Q Public may cut back on a lot of shit, but he's always going to have the ability to get drunk, beat his meat and have a smoke afterword.

Shit, Blue....don't hold back. Tell us how you really feel!

[Hell Puppy]

Historically porn is pretty recession proof. Delivery medium shouldn't matter. $5 for Penthouse or Hustler gets you a 3 day trial, maybe save off some stuff to spank to later. $20-30 for a DVD makes a paysite join look like a no brainer as you get a month of all you can spank for same price and a hell of a lot more variety.

Blue got it right, the average Joe on the street does't prioritize his expenses logically, certain entertainment expenses will be made in front of anything else.

Dont believe me? How many run down rotting house trailers have you ever seen WITHOUT a satellite dish or cable TV?

[tony404]

The whole recession proof thing was for bars and porn shops not the net. I think gas goes up to 4 bucks a gallon we are going to take a hit. You dont need new porn to jack off and as much as he may want it,if the credit card is maxed and the check account to dry because he had to pay $120 to fill up his truck to go to work. It aint going to happen.

[softball]

This is a no brainer. This business is not recession proof. I am working much harder to maintain a good income. As are most. If anyone tells you business is rockin at the moment they are either very lucky or, most likely, full of shit. The good thing about recessions, however, is that they end.
Porn has been in a "recession" since 9/11 when everything changed. Before that it was raining money and anyone with a web page was rolling in cash. Then it settled down into a "regular" business and most of the shady characters "retired" or decided to go "mainstream".
Like any other business, there are those who are rich and those who are poor and everything in between. But if you bury your head in the sand and think you can ride out this recession with the same old same old, you also prolly don't have a plan b.

[softball]

Historically porn is pretty recession proof.

No offense, HP, but how do you know this?

[Hell Puppy]

Originally Posted by tony404

The whole recession proof thing was for bars and porn shops not the net. I think gas goes up to 4 bucks a gallon we are going to take a hit. You dont need new porn to jack off and as much as he may want it,if the credit card is maxed and the check account to dry because he had to pay $120 to fill up his truck to go to work. It aint going to happen.

What works against us is the economic system. You're right we're overly dependent on credit cards and in a crunch those do max out. Now what you'll see is free porn sites boom, but the conversions really go to shit.

I would be slightly concerned about internet access, but I actually think most people who have it and are used to it give up their land line telephone before they give up internet. You can dump a land line in favor of voip easily right now.

Use something like I do with tmo's hotspot@home service and even my cellphone voice calls and SMSs goes thru my internet router when i'm at home. now not only does that mean i have 5 bars even in my basement, but those calls have unlimited minutes regardless of the time of day or night.

my point there is there are ways to use the internet to SAVE money in other places. drop HBO and just grab your favorite premium programming off of torrents or newsgroups for instance.

there's an opportunity that gets created in these scenarios. the opportunity is for discounters. i would think a recession might actually be catalyst to reduce subscription costs to many sites, that in turn could turn internet porn's economic system upside down. that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing as i consider it broken as is, and i have for years.

[juliansosa]

Do you mean the one that happened in 2001 after 9/11?

[MRock]

Sell to the Europeans You be ok. Jill has always sold to them better anyway ... not sure why

[EmporerEJ]

It's been my experience that the adult business excells in a recession, and ESPECIALLY when people are unemployed.
It was true in all 4 of my video stores for 9 years, and it's been true in the online adult biz.

Idle "hands," and busy minds are good for business.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by EmporerEJ

It's been my experience that the adult business excells in a recession, and ESPECIALLY when people are unemployed.
It was true in all 4 of my video stores for 9 years, and it's been true in the online adult biz.

Idle "hands," and busy minds are good for business.

idle hands with no money are worthless also tube sites have made getting your porn fix very easy to do.Not like p2p's or newsgroups where you need a little no how and Im noticing a new trend started in dec and got one today charge back months old charges and they were in the site a shit load of times. I have a feeling those are going to rise. If its a blood bath that will be good for the survivors.

[Forest]

I dont think porn is recession proof but i do believe it is recession resistant. As it is an impulse buy people dont think about what they are spending as a whole on impulse buys like the do budgeted stuff.

2cents

[EmporerEJ]

Originally Posted by tony404

idle hands with no money are worthless also tube sites have made getting your porn fix very easy to do.Not like p2p's or newsgroups where you need a little no how and Im noticing a new trend started in dec and got one today charge back months old charges and they were in the site a shit load of times. I have a feeling those are going to rise. If its a blood bath that will be good for the survivors.

While I have little experience with today's online subscription model (Only from 1997-2000,) I have extensive, and authoritative experience with video rentals from 1985-1994. And that is my experience with "hard times." (which were MUCH worse, than anyhting we've seen today.
The closest comparison today is video rentals-subscription sites. However, if you throw in the dynamic of the "free You Tube" sex, I can see how it would be affected.

All it tells me is the subscription site model is in danger of serious failure.
Just like Buggy whip manufacturing, when cars came along.
I would think the personal "web girl" sites would be effected very little.

[softball]

Originally Posted by EmporerEJ

While I have little experience with today's online subscription model (Only from 1997-2000,) I have extensive, and authoritative experience with video rentals from 1985-1994. And that is my experience with "hard times." (which were MUCH worse, than anyhting we've seen today.
The closest comparison today is video rentals-subscription sites. However, if you throw in the dynamic of the "free You Tube" sex, I can see how it would be affected.

All it tells me is the subscription site model is in danger of serious failure.
Just like Buggy whip manufacturing, when cars came along.
I would think the personal "web girl" sites would be effected very little.

There is a huge difference between then and now. Back then, there was no war draining the US budget. Back then, there was no fear of terrorism. Back then, there was still hope. Now it is a whole new ball game. But like I said, it will change. It always does.
However, you have been pounding your buggy whip drum for years and it still has not happened. The subscription model has been around for a century or more, so I see no reason to believe that it will die like typewriters or dial phones.
It is a fundamental business model that works for everything from mobile phones to cable providers to leasing a car. So why you think the sky is falling on this particular model is beyond me. Some may have to rethink how they deliver and/or present it, but the concept is intact.

[Rcourt64]

Originally Posted by bluemoney

BULLFUCKINSHIT!! Tobacco, Alcohol & Porn are a mainstay in this economy.

tobacco? ..alcohol? ..porn? ..A MAINSTAY???? ... HAHAHAHAHA
Ya well, I'd say that yes, ...Most forms of self indulgent "Addictions" usually become daily routines inside societies average lifestyles.
But if you wanna call them mainstays? ...uhhh ya sure, ok LOL.

Originally Posted by bluemoney

John Q Public may cut back on a lot of shit, but he's always going to have the ability to get drunk, beat his meat and have a smoke afterword.

True, but remember that during hard times, he'll be drinking the 3.99 six pack of schlitz and beating his meat to all the FREE PORN he can snag, "if & when he can keep his Internet service up n running" and smoking the shit weed cuz he can't afford quality smoke.

Addictions don't die due to hard times. but we learn to economize with cheaper forms to fulfill our addicted habits. And since those are pretty much the ONLY forms of addiction still legal inside the United States they all can be found very easily and cheaply through out this nation. "like in every corner MOM & POP Store."

Originally Posted by forest

another newb county heard from

Ya ok..... Dinners ready piss ass

[Sexyteaser]

I think the effects may already be seen there is a lot of people looking for work which implies some companies have already downsized and law suits are cranking up in this business as well so it seems a lot of people are done letting others screw them over.

I think we will see some consolidation and as the cost and risks increase with the hard times ahead a lot of people and companies will probably not be able to stay afloat.

[Hell Puppy]

Originally Posted by Shelleehale

I think the effects may already be seen there is a lot of people looking for work which implies some companies have already downsized and law suits are cranking up in this business as well so it seems a lot of people are done letting others screw them over.

I think we will see some consolidation and as the cost and risks increase with the hard times ahead a lot of people and companies will probably not be able to stay afloat.

This would be and will be happening regardless of any recession. It's part of the maturation process of any industry. We're going thru a consolidation and weed out period.

Margins are getting tighter and not much market for people looking for huge pay checks to do nothing but talk to other employees on the boards all day and answer the occasional client email.

[softball]

Originally Posted by Hell Puppy

This would be and will be happening regardless of any recession. It's part of the maturation process of any industry. We're going thru a consolidation and weed out period.

Margins are getting tighter and not much market for people looking for huge pay checks to do nothing but talk to other employees on the boards all day and answer the occasional client email.

so this is not affecting our business, hp?
Also, you did not respond to my earlier query about your source of adult prosperity in a recession.

[EmporerEJ]

Originally Posted by rhetorical

There is a huge difference between then and now. Back then, there was no war draining the US budget. Back then, there was no fear of terrorism. Back then, there was still hope. Now it is a whole new ball game. But like I said, it will change. It always does.
However, you have been pounding your buggy whip drum for years and it still has not happened. The subscription model has been around for a century or more, so I see no reason to believe that it will die like typewriters or dial phones.
It is a fundamental business model that works for everything from mobile phones to cable providers to leasing a car. So why you think the sky is falling on this particular model is beyond me. Some may have to rethink how they deliver and/or present it, but the concept is intact.

As usual, you try to be condescending in your reply. But since you aren't being completely boorish, I will answer your response.
War draining Budget? Irrelevant to the man on the street. It really hasn't influenced the average guy, and despite what you think you see in the media, the regular people just don't care. The only place it touches them is in the higher cost of gas, which is actually a boon for the online industry, if anything.
The man on the street also doesn't "fear" terrorism. I live within the "kill radius" of Three mile island, as well as peach bottom nuclear power plant, and haven't heard anyone mention it in reference to "terrorism."

In fact, the biggest scandal there (peach bottom) was the firing of the entire security company because of their sleeping on duty. That's "how worried" they are about terrorism.

And if you bothered to read the entire thread, you would have noted I wasn't the one saying the subscription model was "failing." But I do think there is a tidal wave coming, beyond all the free x tube sites.
Once the movie boys dump their old content, there will be a flood of cheap 'n ' ez content around. And will all be "new" to this generation.

I'm not worried, as my business model has nothing to do with the subscription model. We'll get by.

[softball]

irrelevant to the man on the street.

Not for long. What you fail to realize is that the price of gas is just the obvious manifestation of this oil crisis. Plastic has increased by a huge amount. A garbage can that cost twenty bucks now costs thirty and that filters through every walk of life, including, I am sure your business. I only mention you because you have been pounding this drum for years and nothing has changed. Your prescience has been abysmal in your analysis of this particular issue. The sky has been falling in Peach Bottom (wherever that is) for years. Not around here. My real income has fallen fifty percent in three years, yet my monthly income is still growing. But that is beyond my control and has been hammered by the falling dollar. However, I still live a very good life and travel three or four months a year and can still afford the insurance on my old sports car and live in an amazing place that I never dreamed I would be able to afford. So I say this only to make the point that I think you are wrong in your assessment of the future. However, I don't dismiss your acumen, because God knows you could be right and my bets are hedged in bricks and mortar.

[softball]

and btw, you should be worried as anyone in retail with any sense is. You can't swim against the market when you have a non essential item aimed at the masses. You ain't selling Lambos.

[KevinG]

Wow. Great thread.

In general, I agree with Forest that this business is recession resistant. My business is rolling along. All of these areas are either up or steady for me, and nothing is down:

B2B side: Web Development, SEO & Consulting, Traffic development - all doing good.

B2C side: Burning Angel, Joanna Angel, Cigar Glamour - all sites have subscriptions up.

Tobacco (since it was mentioned) - Referral sales for Cigar Review are up. Keep in mind too that premium handmade cigars are more of a luxury product than an addiction, like cigarettes.

The only thing that I have heard is down a little is advertising spending on the B2B side in the adult online business, but that was just from one person.

[boobman]

I think its not recession proof but recesion resistant. And porn IS a commodity no doubht bout it.

[gonzo]

picposts tgps tube sites free porn. waaah wahhh. everyone has been complaining about it for years yet how many new programs/sites do you see popping up daily?
and before you start hanging it all off on pornotube tell me the last time you've been over there and actually looked at that site?

get back to me after you have.
work smarter not harder.
ree shit is here to stay. you can make a meal out of free samples at costco yet how many people do you see leaving there with buggys full of shit?

[gonzo]

I think your both right. the subscription market is just in need of repair. we are a business that relies on 15 minutes of entertainment and the bulk of the income relies on people forgetting or being too lazy.

[bluemoney]

Originally Posted by gonzo

picposts tgps tube sites free porn. waaah wahhh. everyone has been complaining about it for years yet how many new programs/sites do you see popping up daily?
and before you start hanging it all off on pornotube tell me the last time you've been over there and actually looked at that site?

get back to me after you have.
work smarter not harder.
ree shit is here to stay. you can make a meal out of free samples at costco yet how many people do you see leaving there with buggys full of shit?

"Fuckin A"

[Hammer]

Guys will cut back on tobacco and alcohol before they cut back on porn.

[bluemoney]

Originally Posted by Hammer

Guys will cut back on tobacco and alcohol before they cut back on porn.

That works for me.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by KevinG

Wow. Great thread.

In general, I agree with Forest that this business is recession resistant. My business is rolling along. All of these areas are either up or steady for me, and nothing is down:

B2B side: Web Development, SEO & Consulting, Traffic development - all doing good.

B2C side: Burning Angel, Joanna Angel, Cigar Glamour - all sites have subscriptions up.

Tobacco (since it was mentioned) - Referral sales for Cigar Review are up. Keep in mind too that premium handmade cigars are more of a luxury product than an addiction, like cigarettes.

The only thing that I have heard is down a little is advertising spending on the B2B side in the adult online business, but that was just from one person.

Board business is hard work. Posting bullshit and fake drama has run its course. AP knows who to call when they want the straight scoop.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by gonzo

picposts tgps tube sites free porn. waaah wahhh. everyone has been complaining about it for years yet how many new programs/sites do you see popping up daily?
and before you start hanging it all off on pornotube tell me the last time you've been over there and actually looked at that site?

get back to me after you have.
work smarter not harder.
ree shit is here to stay. you can make a meal out of free samples at costco yet how many people do you see leaving there with buggys full of shit?

Says the man who doesnt depend on site memberships to pay his mortgage. lol

[softball]

Originally Posted by gonzo

Board business is hard work. Posting bullshit and fake drama has run its course. AP knows who to call when they want the straight scoop.

Drama has run its course I agree. Tube sites are as scarey as tgp's were in the day. It still all depends on your USP as it did then, as it does now, and as it always shall.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by rhetorical

Drama has run its course I agree. Tube sites are as scarey as tgp's were in the day. It still all depends on your USP as it did then, as it does now, and as it always shall.

tubes and tgps are two completely different things. 15 pics in gallery against 30 min movies, not even in the same ball park.

[softball]

Originally Posted by tony404

tubes and tgps are two completely different things. 15 pics in gallery against 30 min movies, not even in the same ball park.

I have no idea how long you have been in this biz, but a gallery of 15 to 30 pics in 2001 was very formidable. Combine that with "The Hun" and you were up against some stiff competition. So I have to disagree.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by rhetorical

I have no idea how long you have been in this biz, but a gallery of 15 to 30 pics in 2001 was very formidable. Combine that with "The Hun" and you were up against some stiff competition. So I have to disagree.

since 2000 and you cant compare it to full scenes. 15 pics is not a full gallery.

[softball]

Originally Posted by tony404

since 2000 and you cant compare it to full scenes. 15 pics is not a full gallery.

You may be right but it is what we have to deal with and it is the same now as it was then. Back then I could get way more than 15 free pics with minimal effort. I stand by what I said earlier.

[Hammer]

I agree with Tony404. TGPs never really were that much of a problem IMO, because we just started focusing on pushing the video aspect of the sites and since most surfers would rather jerk off to a video than to some pics, we could show them plenty of free pics and still make the sale if the pay site was video heavy.

The problem with Tube sites is now the only reason someone would have to join a video based site is because the quality is higher and that's a harder sell, IMO.

The only thing a surfer really needs to pay for now is webcams and fortunately the cam companies are smart and have actually begun limiting the time a surfer can chat for free rather than increasing it.

[Rcourt64]

Originally Posted by Hammer

The only thing a surfer really needs to pay for now is webcams and fortunately the cam companies are smart and have actually begun limiting the time a surfer can chat for free rather than increasing it.

Any form of interactive live program will always be successful especially if it's sexually based

[RawAlex]

let's see... recession? Hmmm.

At this point, the unemployment rate is still pretty low. People are still working. Obviously, if the housing thing becomes a bigger issue than it already is, there will be all sorts of implications. Potentially the largest issue for online porn would be credit issues, people losing credit cards, and not being able to make online purchases. We are still very dependant on credit cards to make this business go.

The upsides? Well, if unemployment goes up, there is a potential that more models will become available and willing to do porn for cash. We could also see an increase in online business as guys stop being able to afford $300 or more for a night at the titty bar, replaced with a $5 download of a porn movie or a $25 a month membership to a site.

With the US dollar so low, the prices of memberships expressed in US dollars are really low now for European buyers, so much so that American based porn is pretty much a give away. I have noticed a trend in sales that I see more action across almost all programs in the key european hours, and not in the key US hours.

There is money out there, just have to find it.

[softball]

I find it curious how everyone is desperate to climb on the European bandwagon. I have been pounding that drum forever and have always done very well in Europe. Its amazing how a blip in sales brings on yet another "new wave" of marketing genius. As for the analysis, I don't quite agree. This "housing thing" is huge. A whole lot of people have been living way beyond their means for a long time. And the piper is starting to send out invoices in plain red envelopes.

[Toby]

Originally Posted by rhetorical

I find it curious how everyone is desperate to climb on the European bandwagon...

been riding that wagon for awhile now. I love those kinky fuckin' Germans.

[softball]

Originally Posted by Toby

been riding that wagon for awhile now. I love those kinky fuckin' Germans.

For me its the English and Italians. But yeah, what you said.

[Buckwheat]

get out the bidness now! for u all burn in hell!

[softball]

Originally Posted by Buckwheat

get out the bidness now! for u all burn in hell!

Uh huh.....I heard that five years ago....and before that...BW, you gotta get some original material. Much as I think you are an astute gentlemen, you do fall flat. And this be it, dude.

[helix]

Originally Posted by Buckwheat

get out the bidness now! for u all burn in hell!

Buckwheat....I am sad to inform you that you died 28 years ago of a heart attack at the ripe old age of 49.
William Thomas, Jr. (March 12, 1931 – October 10, 1980)

don't lay down, you might not get up.

[RawAlex]

Originally Posted by rhetorical

I find it curious how everyone is desperate to climb on the European bandwagon. I have been pounding that drum forever and have always done very well in Europe. Its amazing how a blip in sales brings on yet another "new wave" of marketing genius. As for the analysis, I don't quite agree. This "housing thing" is huge. A whole lot of people have been living way beyond their means for a long time. And the piper is starting to send out invoices in plain red envelopes.

I think the difference is now I am seeing this sort of move even on sites and projects that aren't specifically aimed at the euro market. The overall sales are happening more that way naturally. It's funny to think of the US as a low cost provider of anything except the boy king's lies.