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Originally posted by wig@Jul 3 2003, 01:59 PM No, it is what I perceive to be greater than 50/50. I don't assign weights to each indicator that may be one of many indicators to then formally arrive at a %.
For me it is part art and science, not one or the other.
Oh, guessing!
.. j/k, man ;-)
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Originally posted by wig@Jul 3 2003, 01:59 PM No, it is what I perceive to be greater than 50/50. I don't assign weights to each indicator that may be one of many indicators to then formally arrive at a %.
For me it is part art and science, not one or the other.
So everything is based on where the 50/50 mark is? So you are saying there is a greater than 50% probability of a depression-like event in the next 30 years?
Or .. are you just saying "don't be surprised"? Because that's not a lot of info. I'm not really surprised by much. I don't know how to act ;-)
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Seriously, though. I have not tried to quantify it because there are so many indicators and there is both price and time to look at.
Not every trade I make has the same set of alignments. I never saw the importance of trying to assign a value and keep track to calculate a mathematical probability.
It is in my head and ultimately will be proven correct or not based on the $$$ (or lack thereof) in my account.
07-03-2003
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