"Web 2.0 is Fucked"

[griffin8r]

It's a good read, and they're pretty much spot on.

Much the same way as MP3.com failed back in the late 90's, YouTube, Myspace, and Twitter are all doomed to fail once the advertisers realize they're not getting anything out of all those impressions they're paying for. When you create a platform that nothing more than a great big narcissistic orgy, no one is looking at anything but the content they created and trying to get other people to come look at it too. It's all about "me" - the users barely give a shit about other peoples' pages, never mind the advertising.

If you don't have a physical product for sale, and you're not selling porn, you've got to really get out of the box to make any money on Web 2.0...

[tony404]

People have short memories. During the boom the net was going to be free and ads would pay for it all. It failed back then and it will fail now. Basic business principles dont change.

[miz_wright]

Originally Posted by tony404

People have short memories. During the boom the net was going to be free and ads would pay for it all. It failed back then and it will fail now. Basic business principles dont change.

I was in finance during the Dot Com Bust - the past two years in this industry have really surprised me with how quickly that iteration's failure has been forgotten.

[EmporerEJ]

Originally Posted by LizAEBN

I was in finance during the Dot Com Bust - the past two years in this industry have really surprised me with how quickly that iteration's failure has been forgotten.

So, it's YOU we have to thank for that bubble?
BAD LIZ.......Naughty, naughty.

[griffin8r]

Originally Posted by tony404

People have short memories. During the boom the net was going to be free and ads would pay for it all. It failed back then and it will fail now. Basic business principles dont change.

I remember it well. I got a free computer and free internet access from one of those surf-for-your-supper jobbers (I think it was freepc.com), and ran three get-paid-to-surf programs over top of it, all run on a fake-surfer app while I slept. Made about $450/mo while that party lasted.

[Hell Puppy]

The fundamental problem here is people keep trying to apply "media" concepts to the web. You keep hearing terms like "publisher", "advertiser", "subscriber", etc.

And most of the business model visions are in turn done with the same thought pattern as TV, magazines, newspapers, etc.

The web is a totally different animal....if you keep trying to treat it as "media" only, you're doomed to repeat the same failures over and over.

I'm not saying advertising driven content production is a totally dead model, but there are some realistic limits in what can be sustained, and they do not support some of the valuations we continue to see on things like Digg. If nothing else, consider how quickly become "ad blind". When you surf do you even see a 460x80 banner now? They're there, but my brain doesn't register them, it has learned that's an ad zone and bypasses it to go right to what it is really looking for. Interstitials and such are just more obnoxious...you still cant force me to read it, all you do is piss me off while my brain is rapidly searching for the "close" link.

I have thoughts on where all this goes, but see my earlier threads about giving away secrets, and I've been submerged working on this one for about 12-18 months.