First Exit Polls hitting the news...

[Almighty Colin]

ELECTION NIGHT BLOG: An 'E&P' First

By Greg Mitchell

Published: November 02, 2004 5:00 PM continually updated

5:00 p.m. ET:

It's an election year ritual: early in the afternoon all major news organizations get the results of exit polls and coyly refuse to release the results. This obviously doesn't hold back the Web, especially in these blog rolling days. Matt Drudge used to have the field pretty much to himself, and indeed he had the first hint up today, about 2:00 pm, when he suggested in a headline that Kerry insiders were happy with the early numbers.

But now he has more competition, and numerous other bloggers, especially those leaning left, were happy to release full details, reputedly from Voter News Service, showing Kerry with leads in nearly every key battleground state, with some margins surprisingly wide (in Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin) and others narrow (Ohio, Florida, Michigan).

At about 4 o'clock, Slate.com then weighed in with additional numbers, amid reports that women may have been somewhat over-sampled earlier. These figures still showed Kerry doing very well nearly everywhere but with only razor-close margins in Ohio, Florida and New Mexico. Shockingly, he was within striking distance in North Carolina.

Does this mean anything? The gamblers think so, as overseas betting lines quickly shifted from Bush to Kerry. What a world.

Liberal bloggers also noted huge turnouts in Kerry-friendly precincts, even above hopeful projections. Spin or win?