Colin, in the last few weeks there has been that halo effect from the whole Reagan thing. Beloved republican, blah blah blah... Pretty much all the pundits have said there would be a boost, at least short term.
The return of Iraq as a sovereign nation will certainly help as well, as it gives the impression that "the war is over". That will last until more US troops die. Having that hostage killed on the same day certainly took away from the strength of the move. Overall, there will still be a short term boost.
However, unless there is a major reduction in the number of troops in Iraq before the election, I suspect you will see Kerry hitting on the fact that "the war isn't over, our soldiers are still at risk and still dying in Iraq"
The MM effect will be harder to guage... and he gets two bites at the apple, as the DVD will be release before the election...
Alex
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