A. maybe instead of the population age affecting interest rates... it is the interest rates affecting the population. Does it matter? Maybe not.. but if it is this way then we will see interest rates turn before average age turns.
B. I think you need a much longer time frame than 25 years as financial markets are thought by many to go in 20-ish year cycles.
C. If they ARE tied together inversely, what if we are at a top of the average age cycle? If it starts going down today... won't interest rates go up?
D. Was there a huge drop in the average age when interest rates skyrocketd in the 70's / early 80's? If not, then this tool can not be used with any certainty to predict interest rates.
E. Maybe they just happen to be 2 trends going in opposite directions and there is no connection at all? Maybe the average temperature for the last 25 years could be plotted inversely against interest rates too?
Last edited by Monk at Apr 18 2004, 10:40 AM
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04-18-2004
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