Bird Flu Epidemic

[OldJeff]

Call out the Military, the bird flu is coming to get us, it is hiding, waiting to destroy our way of life, It hates Amerika, and it is coming to get you.

No wait that is terrorists.

(Well cocaine does make you paranoid)

116 people worldwide out of 6 billion and it is an emidemic.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/10/...flu/index.html

Can somone put this fucktard in a room with a bunch of those little green army men so he has something to play with and does not do any more damage then he already has.

[Rolo]

I´m sure that ex. the spanish flu in 1918 just started with a few people, and then it ended up killed millions in a world that was much less connected than today.

In the fall of 1918 the Great War in Europe was winding down and peace was on the horizon. The Americans had joined in the fight, bringing the Allies closer to victory against the Germans. Deep within the trenches these men lived through some of the most brutal conditions of life, which it seemed could not be any worse. Then, in pockets across the globe, something erupted that seemed as benign as the common cold. The influenza of that season, however, was far more than a cold. In the two years that this scourge ravaged the earth, a fifth of the world's population was infected. The flu was most deadly for people ages 20 to 40. This pattern of morbidity was unusual for influenza which is usually a killer of the elderly and young children. It infected 28% of all Americans (Tice). An estimated 675,000 Americans died of influenza during the pandemic, ten times as many as in the world war. Of the U.S. soldiers who died in Europe, half of them fell to the influenza virus and not to the enemy (Deseret News). An estimated 43,000 servicemen mobilized for WWI died of influenza (Crosby). 1918 would go down as unforgettable year of suffering and death and yet of peace. As noted in the Journal of the American Medical Association final edition of 1918:

http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/

Ofcourse living condition, medicin etc. was different than today, but with the current human population growth, then I´m sure we will get atleast one big plague in our life time, so what should we do to prepare ourself?

[OldJeff]

I do not believe there is anything we can do about it. Nature will take it's course, every once in a while the Earth needs to shake off a few million people. As a species we are generally pretty good about killing each other off to keep things in balance.

I do know that using untrained 18 year olds as "police officers" for an epidemic that "might" happen IF the virus mutates, and IF the virus becomes easily transmutted to humans, is not the answer. M-16's are not really much use against a virus.

Here is a crazy idea, take a billion or so of the dollars that was wasted in Iraq and make more vaccine. Soldiers are no good for fighting a virus, you need doctors and scientists for that kind of thing.

[sarettah]

It is a vast right wing conspiracy

[ReighlynnRaine]

Originally Posted by sarettah

It is a vast right wing conspiracy

heh

[Trev]

I wonder if he's planning to use the Outbreak treatment methods while "quarantines" are being enforced.


What was that firebomb made from again?

[Dravyk]

Originally Posted by OldJeff

116 people worldwide out of 6 billion and it is an emidemic.

Can somone put this fucktard in a room with a bunch of those little green army men so he has something to play with and does not do any more damage then he already has.

Declare martial law! The birds are coming! The birds are coming!



Seriously though ... can't we relieve Bush from office for mental incompetance or something?

[Rolo]

As a doctor friend of mine explained one day - "the entire planet is covered in a fine layer of shit from the bacteria, germs and virus, which is all around and inside us"...

Someone got to keep that shit under control or we are doomed

[PornoDoggy]

Originally Posted by OldJeff

I do not believe there is anything we can do about it. Nature will take it's course, every once in a while the Earth needs to shake off a few million people. As a species we are generally pretty good about killing each other off to keep things in balance.

I do know that using untrained 18 year olds as "police officers" for an epidemic that "might" happen IF the virus mutates, and IF the virus becomes easily transmutted to humans, is not the answer. M-16's are not really much use against a virus.

Here is a crazy idea, take a billion or so of the dollars that was wasted in Iraq and make more vaccine. Soldiers are no good for fighting a virus, you need doctors and scientists for that kind of thing.

We can't afford to spend money on vaccines ... I suspect that will be part of the money cut to pay for the Gulf Coast Blow Jobs and the tax cuts. Besides, vaccines do not generate enough of an ROI to be significant to the pharmacuetical industry, and with two lobbyists for every member of Congress, they talk loud.

The idea of training the military to handle certain tasks - quarantine being one of them - in the event of a full scale crisis has merit. Of course, we COULD build the active duty military back up to the size it should be, and then have the National Guard for this sort of thing, and restore the old Public Health Service to an appropriate size.

I'd be lying if I didn't admit Bush talking about a larger role for the military within the U.S. makes me almost as nervous as it would make Mike AI were if the President and Congress were Democratic.

[PornoDoggy]

Just out of curiousity ... question for the non-'merikin folks on the board.

In the U.S., in spite of the devestation it caused, the 1918-1919 flu pandemic was almost non-history for many years. I'm a history buff, and I've heard more about it in the last 10-12 years than I did "officially" all the years before that. My mother's parents both lost several siblings to the epidemic (they were farm people, each from families with 10+ children), so I did a little digging when I was a teenager, and there was suprisingly little info about it, considering the numbers.

Is that also true in Europe? Is it - glossed over? - because of the huge numbers of people who died?

[Rolo]

Will the Next Pandemic Rival 1918?

In Philadelphia, bodies lay uncollected for days, until horse-drawn carriages were sent through the streets and the call came for the living to bring out their dead. In Cape Town they ran out of coffins and tossed corpses wrapped in blankets into mass graves. Thousands of American soldiers at sea died in troop transports that became known as death ships. Their bodies were tipped into the Atlantic to avoid infecting survivors, but nothing could halt the spread of the virus. "If the epidemic continues its mathematical rate of acceleration," wrote a prominent U.S. public health official, Dr. Victor Vaughn, "civilization could easily disappear [within] a few more weeks."
This was the horror of life during the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, a year that serves as a chilling reminder to every infectious-disease expert of just how catastrophic a pandemic can be. The Spanish flu likely infected more than 30% of the world's population and may have killed up to 100 million people. In 24 weeks, it took more lives than AIDS has in 24 years. "It was a perfect storm for a terrible epidemic," says Dr. Howard Markel, a medical historian at the University of Michigan.

But is it a storm that could strike again? When public health officials warn that an avian flu pandemic could take tens of millions of lives, they're assuming the return of a 1918-strength virus. It wasn't just the enormous death toll that made 1918 stand out, though, but who died and how. While flu usually kills only the very young or old, in 1918 those aged 20 to 40 were the most vulnerable. That may have been because the Spanish flu, unlike weaker flus, could apparently trigger a fatal overreaction by the body's own defenses. Immune cells would tear apart infected tissue in an effort to destroy the virus, a process called a cytokine storm, and blood and other fluid carrying those cells would pour into the lungs, triggering acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Young adults, who have strong immune systems, would have been most at risk for such biological blowback.

The unusual virulence of the 1918 virus may stem from the fact that it evolved amid the unique mayhem of World War I. According to Paul Ewald, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Louisville, crowded, unhygienic conditions—tens of thousands of troops stuffed into transport ships, trenches and military hospitals—favored the evolution of a "predator-like virus" that would have killed too quickly to be easily transmissible in a normal environment. Troops sickened and died but were so densely packed that they could still spread the super-strong virus onwards, even from a hospital bed. The pandemic viruses of 1957 and 1968, by contrast, were about as transmissible as the 1918 strain but were much weaker—in Britain fewer people died from flu in 1968 than in the year before. "I think we will never again see a pandemic with mortality like 1918," says Ewald. "If H5N1 began to be transmitted from human to human, I expect it would evolve toward lower virulence."

Pessimists counter that the effects of H5N1 seem to resemble those of the Spanish flu, including evidence of cytokine storms and ARDS, and note that no one can predict what a new strain of the flu might bring. "Nothing in influenza is surprising to me, because the one thing you can be sure of in influenza is its unpredictability," says Malik Peiris, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong. The 1918 flu made that clear. As it burned its way around the globe, Vaughn ruefully told a colleague: "Never again allow me to say that medical science is on the verge of conquering disease." That battle was lost, and the war is far from over.

http://www.time.com/time/asia/covers...lu_lesson.html

[Rolo]

Originally Posted by PornoDoggy

Is that also true in Europe? Is it - glossed over? - because of the huge numbers of people who died?

Yes, it have been overlooked for years in Europe - WWI took most of the attention in history lessons from that period. I dunno why, but it might be that we as humans do not like to remember events where there are no "winners"...

I think this put the spanish flu into perspective "In 24 weeks, it took more lives than AIDS has in 24 years." .... ofcourse with AIDS being a slow killer it can do more harm long term, but if there had been as many humans in 1918 as we are today, then it could have killed 4 times the amount it did... 80-200 million people world wide in months...

[Newton]

I believe I heard on the news today that scientists created the most dangerous virus ever created in a laboratory recently, (the spanish flu pandemic of 1918 strain) to study how pandemics work?

[Rolo]

Originally Posted by Newton

I believe I heard on the news today that scientists created the most dangerous virus ever created in a laboratory recently, (the spanish flu pandemic of 1918 strain) to study how pandemics work?

Thats a good thing - I guess ;-))

[PornoDoggy]

A number of researchers have been working on the so-called Spanish Flu for a good ten years, to the point where they went and dug up some graves in the northern regions (Norway, I think, but it may have been done in several places).

Some things I've heard/read indicate that the 1918-19 variety isn't the threat it was when it first began to spread, as many contemporary flu strains around derive from that strain. If that is true, many people will have at least some resistance to the strain that wasn't present when it began.

My grandfather was convinced that the Spanish flu was developed in a lab by the Germans.

[Forest]

reminds me of the Stand

http://www.sinisefans.org/stand/

[Rolo]

Originally Posted by PornoDoggy

My grandfather was convinced that the Spanish flu was developed in a lab by the Germans.

Today we still have problems with accepting that evolution might be trying to wipe us from the earth - we always got to blame ourself (or Bush ;-)))

Speaking of blame... in Spain its not called the "Spanish flu", but the "French flu"...

[JR]

i notice everyone is quick to make fun of bush and hint that he wants to take over the world in hitler-like fashion - but a serious question remains... how do you contain a deadly, highly contagious outbreak on a pandemic scale for which there is no known cure and one is not expected anytime soon?

lets see... a city with 2,000,000 people is infected and spreading rapidly... but we will just leave people to their own good judgement to voluntarily contain themselves and quietly die. of course no one is going to try to leave, carrying the virus with them and spread it to other populated areas. thats just a silly assumption by a bunch of right wing whackos bent on taking over the planet. people never need to be told what to do... so we will just let them do what they want.

is that the plan?

any better ideas?

anyone?

anyone?

buehler?


didn't think so.

[EroticySteve]

The sky is falling. The sky is falling.

[EroticySteve]

By containing people aren't we controlling the actions of god? Isn't that immoral and unChristian? Shouldn't he be allowing it to run it's course?

[Rolo]

Originally Posted by EroticySteve

By containing people aren't we controlling the actions of god? Isn't that immoral and unChristian? Shouldn't he be allowing it to run it's course?

I dunno - do you belive in God?

[EroticySteve]

Originally Posted by Rolo

I dunno - do you belive in God?

Our President does.

[PornoDoggy]

You raise some valid points ... but you seem pretty quick to dismiss the idea that this topic is worthy of discussion.

So what are you saying, JR? That concerns about errosion of posse comitatus are invalid?

There are lots of nice little countries where the military plays a much more significant place in the day-to-day lives of its citizens. This ain't one of them. I, for one, don't want it to become one.

I think that regarding Bush's recent comments as evidence that he is taking us down the slippery slope to a facist dictatorship is pretty moronic.

I think dismissing a discussion of the issues that his recent comments bring up as mere "Bush bashing" is even more moronic.

[Rolo]

Originally Posted by EroticySteve

Our President does.

Would it make you more calm, if he was a marxist or worshipped the devil?

[PornoDoggy]

I don't give a fine flying fuck if he belongs to The First Church of God The Utterly Indifferent.

I do object to him attemping to translate His Indifferenceness into national policy.

[JR]

Originally Posted by PornoDoggy

You raise some valid points ... but you seem pretty quick to dismiss the idea that this topic is worthy of discussion.

So what are you saying, JR? That concerns about errosion of posse comitatus are invalid?

There are lots of nice little countries where the military plays a much more significant place in the day-to-day lives of its citizens. This ain't one of them. I, for one, don't want it to become one.

I think that regarding Bush's recent comments as evidence that he is taking us down the slippery slope to a facist dictatorship is pretty moronic.

I think dismissing a discussion of the issues that his recent comments bring up as mere "Bush bashing" is even more moronic.

PD.. where did I ever make fun of legitimate concerns? What issues am I dismissing? Where has there been a discussion of this issue and the legitimate concerns that would need to be addressed?

I was mostly addressing the original post which typifies the rationality and tone any news item with the word "bush" in it.

The threat is real. Its a real problem unlike any we have faced in history. How do we deal with it? Bush asked Congress to think about the issue and you are pointing out the legal issues that have to be thought about. Bush can't give the government more power.

[Dravyk]

Originally Posted by JR

any better ideas?

Kill all the birds!!!

They're just dinosaurs anyways.







Oh yeah, horses are next.

[OldJeff]

Originally Posted by JR

PD.. where did I ever make fun of legitimate concerns? What issues am I dismissing? Where has there been a discussion of this issue and the legitimate concerns that would need to be addressed?

I was mostly addressing the original post which typifies the rationality and tone any news item with the word "bush" in it.

The threat is real. Its a real problem unlike any we have faced in history. How do we deal with it? Bush asked Congress to think about the issue and you are pointing out the legal issues that have to be thought about. Bush can't give the government more power.

There are 116 cases IN THE WORLD, half of which were fatal (and I would bet a lot that the fatalities are elderly)

The little word IF is used by Bush himself

IF the virus mutates, IF it becomes easy to pass on to humans.

Giving him the use of the military as police AT THIS TIME is unnecessary.

IF there is an outbreak of something major, then we are talking about a totally different scenario.

Right now we got some dead birds in Asia. And there have been a hell of a lot more deaths from AIDS, maybe we should round up all the AIDS paitents somewhere, what do you think ?

[Dravyk]

Wait! The birds are WMDs! We're at war! Chang told me so.

[Rolo]

Originally Posted by Dravyk

Wait! The birds are WMDs! We're at war! Chang told me so.

Why H5N1 is of particular concern

Of the 15 avian influenza virus subtypes, H5N1 is of particular concern for several reasons. H5N1 mutates rapidly and has a documented propensity to acquire genes from viruses infecting other animal species. Its ability to cause severe disease in humans has now been documented on two occasions. In addition, laboratory studies have demonstrated that isolates from this virus have a high pathogenicity and can cause severe disease in humans. Birds that survive infection excrete virus for at least 10 days, orally and in faeces, thus facilitating further spread at live poultry markets and by migratory birds.

The epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza caused by H5N1, which began in mid-December 2003 in the Republic of Korea and is now being seen in other Asian countries, is therefore of particular public health concern. H5N1 variants demonstrated a capacity to directly infect humans in 1997, and have done so again in Viet Nam in January 2004. The spread of infection in birds increases the opportunities for direct infection of humans. If more humans become infected over time, the likelihood also increases that humans, if concurrently infected with human and avian influenza strains, could serve as the “mixing vessel” for the emergence of a novel subtype with sufficient human genes to be easily transmitted from person to person. Such an event would mark the start of an influenza pandemic.

So the WHO http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/ is just a bunch of Bush support trying to use fear to control the masses?

[PornoDoggy]

Look, I'm glad SOMEBODY is paying attention to this. I don't think it's something that can be ignored. This fucker has been kicking around Asia for ten or so years, and has the potential to get really fucking 1918-style ugly.

Any sensible contingency planning includes worst-case scenarios. With that in mind, figuring out what the role of ALL resources available (including the military) is more than just locigal - it's necessary.

Still - Bush isn't talking about the CDC. He's not talking about the Surgeon-General, or the Department of Health and Human Services. He's not even talking about getting Pat Robertson to pray it only affects Gawdless A-rabs and other infidels, like Eurpopeans.

He's talking about the military, and that raises the hair on the back of my neck. Just don't seem like the appropriate first subject to bring up.

[Dravyk]

Didja say something, PD?

[Rolo]

Originally Posted by PornoDoggy

He's talking about the military, and that raises the hair on the back of my neck. Just don't seem like the appropriate first subject to bring up.

That was asked about how to enforce quarantines... Should the military not be used in such a situation? Who will be able to prepare for this, and not fuck up?

The katrina hurricane showed alot of problems, so I think its good to get possible worst case scenarios on the table, and debating different approaches - including the military.

[JR]

Originally Posted by OldJeff

There are 116 cases IN THE WORLD, half of which were fatal (and I would bet a lot that the fatalities are elderly)

The little word IF is used by Bush himself

IF the virus mutates, IF it becomes easy to pass on to humans.

Giving him the use of the military as police AT THIS TIME is unnecessary.

IF there is an outbreak of something major, then we are talking about a totally different scenario.

Right now we got some dead birds in Asia. And there have been a hell of a lot more deaths from AIDS, maybe we should round up all the AIDS paitents somewhere, what do you think ?

... ok.... one more time. bush can't give himself more authority. he simply asked congress to consider issues like this and i think we can all agree after katrina that local, state and federal governments don't work well together even when people are dying and there is advanced warning.

so... this issue of these viruses was big problem before looooong before this article was published. its been a big issue for a while now. its been an issue before the WHO for years. its not a small obscure thing made up at the last minute to justify a military take over of Anywhere, USA.

you use AIDS as an example... AIDS is not a disease that can spread easily. i am not an epidemiologist, but i am pretty sure that AID's is not contagious. AID's is not a disease that you and your family will one day wake up with and be dying before you even know you are sick. You won't wake up one day to see a city of 700,000 dying of AIDs with those people needing to be quarantined. AID's is a disease that spreads when two junkies share a needle or when two turd burglers sodomize each other with some other rare exceptions. If you don't want AIDs - wear a condom and don't share needles.

my point is always the same... everyone is basically saying "i dont like bush" - no one has offered a solution to the very real threat of containing a virus like this. we could not even get people food and water in NO when they were dying and suddenly it makes perfect sense to let those same fucked up people on city and state and federal levels all work together to contain a pandemic outbreak of a deadly disease? i am not saying "bush is great" - i am simply saying that it sounds quite reasonable to have federal control over states in situations like this.

[Red]

Originally Posted by PornoDoggy

We can't afford to spend money on vaccines ... I suspect that will be part of the money cut to pay for the Gulf Coast Blow Jobs and the tax cuts. Besides, vaccines do not generate enough of an ROI to be significant to the pharmacuetical industry, and with two lobbyists for every member of Congress, they talk loud.

Bingo!! Give the man a cigar.

[OldJeff]

Originally Posted by JR

... ok.... one more time. bush can't give himself more authority. he simply asked congress to consider issues like this and i think we can all agree after katrina that local, state and federal governments don't work well together even when people are dying and there is advanced warning.

so... this issue of these viruses was big problem before looooong before this article was published. its been a big issue for a while now. its been an issue before the WHO for years. its not a small obscure thing made up at the last minute to justify a military take over of Anywhere, USA.

you use AIDS as an example... AIDS is not a disease that can spread easily. i am not an epidemiologist, but i am pretty sure that AID's is not contagious. AID's is not a disease that you and your family will one day wake up with and be dying before you even know you are sick. You won't wake up one day to see a city of 700,000 dying of AIDs with those people needing to be quarantined. AID's is a disease that spreads when two junkies share a needle or when two turd burglers sodomize each other with some other rare exceptions. If you don't want AIDs - wear a condom and don't share needles.

my point is always the same... everyone is basically saying "i dont like bush" - no one has offered a solution to the very real threat of containing a virus like this. we could not even get people food and water in NO when they were dying and suddenly it makes perfect sense to let those same fucked up people on city and state and federal levels all work together to contain a pandemic outbreak of a deadly disease? i am not saying "bush is great" - i am simply saying that it sounds quite reasonable to have federal control over states in situations like this.

Actually AIDS spreads much easier than the bird flu, AIDS can actually be passed from person to person,(ins't that the definition of contagious) the bird flu can only pass from live infected birds to humans, so I should say, if you don't want bird flu, don't fuck chickens, right ?

As far as a solution, I already offered it, a vaccine already exists, MAKE MORE OF IT.

Your "turd burgler" comment does nothing but point out your homophobia, but that is to be expected, since homophobia is what won the last election for W.

The Federal Government already does have control in these situations.

If congress gives Bush the ability to use the Military as police now, he will do so, 2 people in a nursing home dies from anything flu related and the soldiers would be on the move.

IF there ever is a situation that needs the military to be used, the president can get the authority AT THAT TIME.

I know the legislative branch is usually pretty slow moving because everyone need to pack all the laws with PORK, but believe it or not they can move pretty quick WHEN THERE IS A NEED. There is no need right now.

[Rolo]

Originally Posted by OldJeff

the bird flu can only pass from live infected birds to humans, so I should say, if you don't want bird flu, don't fuck chickens, right ?

Actual that is do not eat/fuck/suck "anything" that has been in contact with bird flu... ex. pigs eat almost anything, and they could be the possible silent mixing vessel.

And that is the problem - viruses are unstable, jump species, they mix and match with eachother, and their behaviour is unpredictable... but one thing is certain, more infected cases = more likely we will see an influenza pandemic.

The bird flu have now reached Russia's Urals, and its headed towards Europe - its not getting smaller - its spreading.

Yes, you will not die of a mutated bird flu virus tomorrow, but also you do not see Bush wanting to declare martial law tomorrow.

What Bush is trying to communicate is that when/if/should the mutated bird flu spread in a city such as NY, then who is going to enforce the quarantines? The Posse Comitatus Act forbids the military from performing civilian law enforcement without congressional approval... should they be waiting for hours (days?) while congress decide want to do? How would you effectively stop the spread in the most crucial time period - the virus will not wait.

[PornoDoggy]

If anyone is interested, NPR's "Science Friday" show will be talking about this between noon-two p.m. (EDT) today. This is a pretty high-brow call in show; the guests are usually top-notch, and the average caller is smart enough to be able to tie his or her shoes without Cliff Notes to do it.

Can't get the feed from the network, but there are [far more than Tom Delay likes] all kinds of NPR affilaites available on the web.