The march of SARS

Almighty Colin · 04-24-2003

SARS UPDATE: 4288 cases. 251 deaths. Mortality rate of 5.9%.

Seems like ithe mortality rate is increasing but really what has happened is some of the people that had it previously are dying. CDC lists 2032 people as "recovered" leaving 2256 still having the symptoms and still alive. Of these, some will die.

Comparing deaths to (recovered+deaths) you get 251/2283 which is 11%.

The number of cases worldwide has increased by a factor of almost 5 in the past month. This figure ignores China because their statistics are unreliable. If the current one-month infection rate continued, there would be about 20,000 people with SARS a month from now of which maybe 2,000 would die if the mortality rate stayed the same.

Of course, nature never does cooperate with such assumptions.

Winetalk.com · 04-24-2003

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Almighty Colin · 04-24-2003

This is interesting. Honk Kong Dept of Health provides the following statistics as of Apr 15.

AGE MORTALITY RATE
0-14 0
15-34 0.4
35-54 3.6
55-64 6.5
65-74 18.9
over 75 28.6

Almighty Colin · 04-24-2003

04-24-2003	#1
Almighty Colin Members Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 8,059	SARS UPDATE: 4288 cases. 251 deaths. Mortality rate of 5.9%. Seems like ithe mortality rate is increasing but really what has happened is some of the people that had it previously are dying. CDC lists 2032 people as "recovered" leaving 2256 still having the symptoms and still alive. Of these, some will die. Comparing deaths to (recovered+deaths) you get 251/2283 which is 11%. The number of cases worldwide has increased by a factor of almost 5 in the past month. This figure ignores China because their statistics are unreliable. If the current one-month infection rate continued, there would be about 20,000 people with SARS a month from now of which maybe 2,000 would die if the mortality rate stayed the same. Of course, nature never does cooperate with such assumptions. __________________ Almighty Content. Your one stop for live content. Secret Friends, LATINA Secret Friends , My Cam Friends

04-24-2003	#2
Winetalk.com Prostate Examiner I quoff fine wine at corkd.com Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: good 'ole USA Posts: 21,018	..and if any of you haven't done estate planning- NOW is a good time! __________________ why dogs sniff each other butts?

04-24-2003	#3
Almighty Colin Members Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 8,059	This is interesting. Honk Kong Dept of Health provides the following statistics as of Apr 15. AGE MORTALITY RATE 0-14 0 15-34 0.4 35-54 3.6 55-64 6.5 65-74 18.9 over 75 28.6 __________________ Almighty Content. Your one stop for live content. Secret Friends, LATINA Secret Friends , My Cam Friends

04-24-2003	#4
Almighty Colin Members Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 8,059	__________________ Almighty Content. Your one stop for live content. Secret Friends, LATINA Secret Friends , My Cam Friends