US economy gathering steam

[Almighty Colin]

The ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) weekly index showed its fastest growth since since September of 1983.

"It is unambiguous the economy is going to recover" said ECRI director Lakshman Achuthan.

[JR]

Looks at psychological aspects of lying, defining the different types of lying and liars and explaining factors underlying deceit including biology, developmental issues, styles of deception, and the role of personality. Other topics include pathological lying, con artists, false memories and false confessions, detection of deceit, and therapeutic approaches for the deceitful person.

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by JR@Aug 11 2003, 10:23 AM

JR,
;-)))))

[Almighty Colin]

Definitely worth three chuckles

[Buff]

And Kudlow said, "Dow 35,000". None of those assclowns have more inkling about economics than their hero, John Keynes.

Those numbers don't mean dick, Colin. Any economic expansion we have right now is nothing more than another false boom provided to us courtesy of the Fed's monetary expansion. You can't create wealth by creating money out of thin air and pumping it into the economy.

In the short run, you'll get a false boom. Right after that, you'll get a nice bust. We haven't even bled all the bad money out of the economy from the 95-99 expansion we had.

To give you an idea of what I'm talking about, go to: this link, and look at the money stock since 1995.

Here's the graph:



That's a recipe for disaster.

I cannot over emphasize how important it is for people to read the articles at vonmises.org. That's real economics, and real situations can be explained there.

A great article to start with is this one by the guy who predicted the bust:

http://vonmises.org/fullarticle.asp?contro...+Burst%3F&id=59

[Almighty Colin]

Buff,

The money supply contracted over 30% during the "Great Depression". Many economists have made the point that you flood the economy with money to expand a sluggish economy. US farmers in the late 1800s had problems because the money supply couldn't expand to accomodate their borrowing needs. Many went out of business.

What you're saying is not born out by the numbers you showed me. In fact, just the opposite.

Consider the July 1990-March 1991 contraction. The annual change in MZM was ACCELERATING coming out of the recession and continued to increase until 1994 as the economy was gaining steam.

Year MZM
1990 +3.7%
1991 +6%
1992 +10.5%
1993 +11.2%

For that matter, the MZM increased 15% during the 1981/1982 recession, a recession that lasted 16 months. In the 16 months after the recession the MZM exploded another 25% as the recovery was under way.



Last edited by Colin at Aug 11 2003, 12:26 PM

[Hooper]

I think i wandered into the wrong discussion.

[Buff]

Colin:

The "Roaring 20s" were a false boom created by expanded money stock and artificially low interest rates.

The Great Depression was the bust that always accompanies a false boom.

It's really that simple.

I don't care what Keynesian economists say about what the government should do. They are wrong. They have always been wrong. Von Mises predicted the Great Depression, Keynes' policy advice helped it last 25 years.

[Buff]

Here is a great read on the subject, Colin (or anyone else who is interested in REAL economics): http://vonmises.org/fullarticle.asp?record...d=1237&month=56

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Buff@Aug 11 2003, 12:49 PM
Colin:

The "Roaring 20s" were a false boom created by expanded money stock and artificially low interest rates.

The Great Depression was the bust that always accompanies a false boom.

It's really that simple.

I don't care what Keynesian economists say about what the government should do. They are wrong. They have always been wrong. Von Mises predicted the Great Depression, Keynes' policy advice helped it last 25 years.

I agree that the money supply was expanded too quickly during the 1920s. Nothing is ever that simple.

There were many other errors including the FED increasing the lending rate and and I think in particular the government forcing a balanced budget by raising income taxes and cutting government spending. Both shrunk the GDP further and exacerbated the problem.

Also as soon as the recession began the FED contracted the money supply.

Obviously there are different versions of what happened and what caused it but it seems to me that doing the opposite of what occured would have been best. Expand the money supply, decrease taxes, increase spending. Only when the government increased spending in 1934 did recovery really get going.

Keynes. The depression peaked in 1932/33. His General Theory was published in 1936. I don't see why you say the depression lasted 25 years. GDP doubled from 1933 until 1940. Personal consumption doubled from 1933 to 1942.