wig, what's your new outlook on the bond market?

[Winetalk.com]

did we hit the ULTIMATE bottom in rates?

I don't even think of trading my shorts
;-)))

[wig]

Serge,

Bonds tested their extreme, near-term support, although notes did not make it there. BPJ was short bonds and I gave him 109.16 as a place to get out. I guess it depends on your time horizon.

It will now take a weekly close 108.16/US and 112.05/TY to turn the weekly trend down and give the first good indication of the mid March high being a MAJOR secondary peak.

Short-term, I think they will consolidate and retest the recent lows. How we close on the weekly will be the deciding factor to me.

I am leaning towards a consolidation followed by another rally into year end, but that can all change if they break down and give confirming closes.

Long term (years) I think we are very close to the ultimate bottom in rates, but it will take a monthly close below the August 03 low to confirm.

How about that cycle low in Stocks I had for the week of March 22nd? ;-))

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by wig@Apr 5 2004, 08:10 AM
Serge,

Bonds tested their extreme, near-term support, although notes did not make it there. BPJ was short bonds and I gave him 109.16 as a place to get out. I guess it depends on your time horizon.

It will now take a weekly close 108.16/US and 112.05/TY to turn the weekly trend down and give the first good indication of the mid March high being a MAJOR secondary peak.

Short-term, I think they will consolidate and retest the recent lows. How we close on the weekly will be the deciding factor to me.

I am leaning towards a consolidation followed by another rally into year end, but that can all change if they break down and give confirming closes.

Long term (years) I think we are very close to the ultimate bottom in rates, but it will take a monthly close below the August 03 low to confirm.

How about that cycle low in Stocks I had for the week of March 22nd? ;-))

good call on the stocks, indeed!
;-)))

[wig]

Watch April 19th! There are many things lining up on this date in many markets.

It is also the anniversary of many major events in the US.

I will have more to say about this date in the next week or so.

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by wig@Apr 5 2004, 08:51 AM
Watch April 19th! There are many things lining up on this date in many markets.

It is also the anniversary of many major events in the US.

I will have more to say about this date in the next week or so.

can you be alittle bit more specific?
you sound like Delphi's Oracle now
;-)

[wig]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Apr 5 2004, 09:00 AM-->