Mystery of the US homicide rate

[Almighty Colin]

Anyone have any idea why the US homicide rate took off from 1904 to 1907 and stayed high? Note that the homicide rate is lower today than it was 90 years ago. The question remains though. Why did it ever take off in the first place and why from 1904-1907?

US Homicide rate (per 100k)

1900 1.2
1901 1.2
1902 1.2
1903 1.1
1904 1.3
1905 2.1
1906 3.9
1907 4.9
1908 4.8
1909 4.2
1910 4.6
1911 5.5
1912 5.4
1913 6.1
1914 6.2
1915 5.9
1916 6.3
1917 6.9
1918 6.5
1919 7.2
1920 6.8
1921 8.1
1922 8
1923 7.8
1924 8.1
1925 8.3
1926 8.4
1927 8.4
1928 8.6
1929 8.4
1930 8.8
1931 9.2
1932 9
1933 9.7
1934 9.5
1935 8.3
1936 8
1937 7.6
1938 6.8
1939 6.4
1940 6.3
1941 6
1942 5.9
1943 5.1
1944 5
1945 5.7
1946 6.4
1947 6.1
1948 5.9
1949 5.4
1950 5.3
1951 4.9
1952 5.2
1953 4.8
1954 4.8
1955 4.5
1956 4.6
1957 4.5
1958 4.5
1959 4.6
1960 4.7
1961 4.7
1962 4.8
1963 4.9
1964 5.1
1965 5.5
1966 5.9
1967 6.8
1968 7.3
1969 7.7
1970 8.3
1971 9.1
1972 9.4
1973 9.7
1974 10.1
1975 9.9
1976 9
1977 9.1
1978 9.2
1979 10
1980 10.7
1981 10.3
1982 9.6
1983 8.6
1984 8.4
1985 8.4
1986 9
1987 8.7
1988 9
1989 9.3
1990 10
1991 10.5
1992 10
1993 10.1
1994 9.6
1995 8.7
1996 7.9
1997 7.4
1998 6.8
1999 5.7

[b]



Last edited by Colin at Oct 1 2003, 05:17 AM

[slavdogg]

Colin, interesting 1904-7 were the years of good economic expansion if i'm not mistaken.

while the years it hit over 10 were the years of recession or right/before after it.

and where id 1990 go ?

I watched bollowing for Calimbine for the first time yesterday.. good movie.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by slavdogg@Oct 1 2003, 04:56 AM
and where id 1990 go ?

Oops. Thanks.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by slavdogg@Oct 1 2003, 04:56 AM
while the years it hit over 10 were the years of recession or right/before after it.

US Recessions in

1902-1904
1907-1908

From: http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

Note: 32 recessions since 1857. About one per president. Rate seems to be slowing down. Can we defeat the downturn in the business cycle? Is this a good goal? The last 2 recessions were two of the shortest ever.

[slavdogg]

Originally posted by Colin@Oct 1 2003, 05:23 AM
Can we defeat the downturn in the business cycle?

Will never happen
We gotta have the lows to enjoy the highs

[KC]

Originally posted by slavdogg@Oct 1 2003, 04:56 AM
I watched bollowing for Calimbine for the first time yesterday.. good movie.

What about it did you think was good?

I thought it was a good execution of a biased look at a very controversial issue. He made a strong argument, but it was so biased that it makes the whole thing look questionable.

I thought it was entertaining, but the skewed facts and misleading storyline was bullshit.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by KC@Oct 1 2003, 10:29 PM
I thought it was entertaining, but the skewed facts and misleading storyline was bullshit.

Michael Moore is a great entertainer. No doubt. I liked the movie. It was entertaining, funny, and the cartoon in the middle killed me. As far as a serious piece though it falls far short. It's what happens when a comedian makes a movie.

I mean the idea that governmental belligerency causes increased violence in a nation has no support.

Moore also doesn't discuss the fact that the homicide rate in the US is the same today as it was in 1913. Modern media isn't causing higher homicide rates in the US. Homicide rates in the US were high before modern media even existed.

As you said, "skewed".

[slavdogg]

Originally posted by KC@Oct 1 2003, 10:29 PM
What about it did you think was good?

The cartoon

I kinda looked passed all the bullshit and skewed facts other than difference in homicide rates in US and Canada. That really got me thinking... am still thinking

There is some truth about Fear in the society as he described it. And that fear compounds and grows from all the little things we see or hear and warnings we read and it starts in childhood.

Today for example i was taking a piss at the gym and above the urinal there was a sign saying something like "dont leave valuables in the locker and make sure to lock it before you leave" Right away i thought about 2 things my Rolex in the locker and the this movie … than smiled and walked away. You see little things like this even if not taken seriously subconsciously instill fear in the society. Add on top of that all media influences and some will really believe it and will end up buying a bunker and moving to Colorado thinking the world is about to end.


That was about all i found interesting and entertaining, but that still doesnt explain what Colin pointed out about homicide rates in 1913 and now even though we know nothing else about life in 1913 to really compare.

[KC]

The thing about fear was interesting..

One of the Anti-Bowling sites pointed out that Michael Moore himself was playing off the fear in his own movie.

http://www.hardylaw.net/Truth_About_Bowling.html

"9. Fear. Bowling probably has a good point when it suggests that the media feeds off fear in a search for the fast buck. Bowling cites some examples: the razor blades in Halloween apples scare, the flesh-eating bacteria scare, etc. The examples are taken straight from Barry Glassner's excellent book on the subject, "The Culture of Fear," and Moore interviews Glassner on-camera for the point.

Then Moore does exactly what he condemns in the media.

Given the prominence of schoolyard killings as a theme in Bowling for Columbine, Moore must have asked Glassner about that subject. Whatever Glassner said is, however, left on the cutting-room floor. That's because Glassner lists schoolyard shootings as one of the mythical fears. He points out that "More than three times as many people are killed by lightning as by violence at schools."

I suppose we might go farther, and ask if Moore's film is not illustrative of what it condemns. Moore argues that the media (a) distorts reality, and ( hypes fear of other Americans, because © fear is good for a fast buck. Moore distorts reality, hypes fear of other Americans ("are we nation of gun nuts, or just nuts?") and, well, made several million fast bucks. "

[KC]

The cartoon was funny.. I remember laughing pretty hard.

[KC]

Originally posted by Colin@Oct 1 2003, 04:36 AM
Anyone have any idea why the US homicide rate took off from 1904 to 1907 and stayed high? Note that the homicide rate is lower today than it was 90 years ago. The question remains though. Why did it ever take off in the first place and why from 1904-1907?

It would be really interesting to look at the numbers from 1850 on.. Back in the real Wild West days.. when everyone carried a firearm.

I wonder if an armed society was able to keep crime down. I'm sure the record keep of such things was pretty non existent back then.

[Brad_wishing]

9.2 was the highest I browsed in that list. Pretty crazy.

I don't know. I have a feeling that was something to do with the rise in changing culture... lots of immigration and such in the very early 1900s?

[slavdogg]

Originally posted by Brad_wishing@Oct 2 2003, 08:23 PM
I don't know. I have a feeling that was something to do with the rise in changing culture... lots of immigration and such in the very early 1900s?

Wasnt there huge immigration influx in 1990's and 80s ?

There are 35 million imigrants in this country right now, and the crime rate is the same as 90 years ago.

lots of immigration doesnt explain anything

[KC]

Originally posted by slavdogg+Oct 2 2003, 08:45 PM-->