[RawAlex]

I think the issue here is that for the moment, many of the programs (looking at Manwin, example) have the upper hand in generating their own traffic. That said, their methods (tubes with full videos) seems to be a bit self-defeating. I guess they can make it up in volume.

However, that dominance exists in great part because of the way that Google current looks at things like social media and related links. These companies have large staffs often dedicated to nothing more than obtaining links, creating accounts on chat boards, tweeting, and running "sexy but clean" facebook pages and feeder sites. They are playing Google's social media heavy algo to the very max right now.

There is always a place for anyone with traffic, even a little bit of traffic - especially if it's somewhat better than their current tube-fed and satiated users. For that reason alone, affiliate style programs won't go away entirely.

My guess is that brokers may become more popular, or "fronting" affiliate programs that will front for a number of sites on a number of programs which are not generally public. They will make percentage of sales plus probably be able to filter out some of the geo traffic to make more income - or get exit consoles or the like in the deal. But there will still be an affiliate model, just perhaps less direct.

Meanwhile, a stupid question: In dealing with Google, how far away from a porn site does traffic have to be to be "washed" enough for adsense? If I park an adult domain, can I 301 the traffic directly to an adsense site, or should there be another intermediate step in the game?