[Toby]

Some interesting thoughts so far. I think 2009 is going to be a mixed bag. Survival will be the name of the game for vast majority. There will be a fair number of big losers and a much smaller number of big winners. Whether it's a boom, bust or something in-between will depend on where you're currently postioned and just how "stuck" you are in that position.

There's going to be a great deal of change in 2009. The way content is being delivered will continue to evolve. Switch to the new too early and you lose your existing user base. Jump too late and your user base has already left. Gracefully being able to deliver by both old and new methods is usually very difficult to pull off.

A couple more specific predictions:
• HUGE turnover in "part time" webmasters, not that it hasn't been high all along, but turnover will be even higher. Many that have been in the biz drop out as their porn income significantly declines. Others that have lost jobs enter the biz thinking they can make money selling porn, only to drop out after a few months.
• The FriendFinder IPO fails miserably. AFF itself survives, most likely sold off as part of a restructuring or bankruptcy. Major changes to it's existing business strategies in order to make it profitable.