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Originally Posted by Robin
Yes that could happen. But only briefly. The rest of the world is stepping up crude production because of the hurricanes. But our bottleneck is refining. Therefore there could be a glut of crude for a while. However, I think the low $50s is the lowest it could go - nobody would let it go any lower, the Saudis would slow production to keep it over that level.
Even so, crude is running out and if oil falls it will go back up for sure.
On the other hand. All it takes is for one of the big oil producing countries such as Saudi or Iran etc to produce less oil than they did the year before and everyone will start believing in Peak Oil and there'll be a run up on the price of crude.
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I am not a fundamentalist, but I understand what you are saying. I am sure there are hypothetical rationales to support $40.
I am not trying to make a serious prediction on oil. Longer term it will take a lot to turn the picture bearish.