Production cost for oil is $2-$10 per barrel, so the current price is highly speculative. Also there will be much more talk in the news to get the oil price down - things like:
Quote:
Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia's oil minister and the president of Exxon Mobil Corp. said world petroleum reserves are enough to last for decades, seeking to ease concern about supplies and near-record prices.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, will ``soon'' almost double its proven reserve base, said Oil Minister Ali al- Naimi. That will add 200 billion barrels to the current estimate of 264 billion, he said. Exxon Mobil President Rex Tillerson said the world may still have more than 3 trillion barrels from conventional oil fields, oil sands deposits and other sources.
``There will be plenty of oil available to meet future demand,'' al-Naimi said today in Johannesburg. Prices are high now because ``the petroleum industry faces infrastructure constraints and bottlenecks that are causing market volatility and restricting its ability to bring oil from the ground to the consumer
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http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...A3A&refer=home
Then you got possible slowdown of world economy due to the high oil price, which will lower the demand for oil. And lets not forget news from the technology sector about better production, better consumption and even other energy forms, which could increase available oil.
Personally I would love to see a high oil price, because it will make investments in other energy areas possible (less depended on the middle east + creating local jobs), however I do not think that the oil price will rise in double digits per barrel in the next years, unless some major terror or revolt in saudi arabia.