I don't think it come close to the magnitude of the election of Lincoln, or the 1st and 3rd elections of Franklin Roosevelt.
Probably not even close to '64 (important for domestic reasons, not foreign policy), even though it was never much of a contest.
If Bush loses, you could see a serious implosion on the Republican side. It's probable you will see battles on that front even if he wins, since the VP can't really be considered a standard-bearer for '08. McCain (and to a lesser extent, Guiliani) may belong to the same party as Hatch and Frist, but the differnces between them on large areas of social policy are almost as wide as their areas of agreement.
Frankly - ignoring the horrible effects of GW appointing a couple of Supreme Court justices - a Bush victory could be the best thing that could happen for the Democrats. If it happens, and since they will be unencumbered by the need to run again, I look for a swing hard right. If that takes place, they'll lose the swing votes, and probably would lose the Presidency and Congress in '08.
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