Quote:
Originally posted by RawAlex@Aug 22 2004, 07:07 PM
Colin, it isn't a numbers thing - it's a feeling. A year or so ago, you say anything against Bush, and you would get a serious beat down. You can go back and look at the archives of this board, pretty much everyone here was beating their chests and saying how great Bush the leader was.
Now I get a feeling of more and more people being less convinces, they speak with less conviction, etc. It's almost like people just don't believe him any more, and they are actually asking questions rather than just accepting the facts as presented.
It's weird, but it's in the air.
Alex
|
The numbers support what you are saying, Alex. Compared to a year ago Bush's support IS down. He's been on an upswing for about three months now though. Three months ago, Kerry supporters on the boards were talking about Kerry taking over now and he might start to run away but now it's just become deadlocked. Abu Ghraib, Fahrenheit 911, rumors of a Powel resignation, rumors that Rumsfeld would be canned, Edwards as nominee, the Democratic Convention. These were the reasons that Kerry was going to pull ahead. Somehow Bush managed to gain ground during that time and pull it back to even. I would say because of lessening war coverage, the normal slow public reaction to economic news and some pretty good positioning by Rove and Company (Kerry flip flops). I myself started to lean Kerry until the convention and the normal class warfare troops came marching out. I know of a number of people who say the same thing.
Where will it go? Anyone's guess. Good solid factors on both sides of the argument. The biggest events left are the Republican Convention and the debates of which historically, the convention has the biggest effect on the election by far. However, as in the Kerry case, this seems like a year where the conventions will have less of an effect because of the polarity.
I agree with PD that Bush's support is not deep but I think the past 8 years change in the media has brought increasing polarity and support for one party or the other is deeper than normal.
Flip a coin on election day to make a prediction. That will probably do as well as the polls.