Quote:
Originally posted by RawAlex@Jun 27 2004, 09:08 PM
I would like to point out that months and months of negative campaigning from the Bush side has done little to change the polls, only the death of the beloved Ronald Reagan was able to boost him temporarily.
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Hmmm, well Bush has lead all the way until just a few months ago and that change has come mostly from people's perception of the war in Iraq not going well. Bush lead all the way until mid Feb. Kerry lead from about mid February until a few weeks ago. Now it is tied. There was a fair rise in the past month of people's perception of the economy so that is probably the cause of Bush's rise. Perception always lags on the economy.
I believe you said once that the election is Kerry's to win or lose but I think it is more in Bush's hands, as the incumbent, than Kerrys. As Iraq and the economy go, if you consider those "in Bush's hands", will go the Bush campaign. Kerry's greatest influence on the election will come from his performance at the Democratic National Convention and his choice of running mate. It's possible Kerry could jump ahead a good amount at the convention but difficult to guess because of the extremely polarized electorate.
I think most people are either voting "For Bush" or "Against Bush".