I haven't seen it yet but I don't think the film will have much of an effect on the election. There were three shows sold out at my local theater yesterday night by the way. I think the influence of Moore's film will be drowned out by all the other factors in play - the economy, Iraq, Osama (?), the debates, the conventions, other mass media influences, international terrorism, oil prices and so on.
A few points.
1. Moore's film is just noise in the big picture. The two biggest biggest factors in the election are likely to be the economy and security. There are so many outside factors in these two issues that predictability is impossible. People's opinions on the economy are split by voter intention. 4/5 of those who intend to vote for Kerry say the economy is only fair or poor. More than half of Bush's supporters rate the economy as good-excellent. On just that one factor, we're likely to see more of a factor than on a Moore movie which will be seen mostly, I think, by partisans. People watch Moore's film one time but watch FOX News or listen to Air America much more frequently. Book after book attacks "the liberals" or the "conservatives".
2. I think the movie was released too early to have much of an effect. Hell, Saddam was captured and even that historically significant event is having - I think - little effect on the election. It happened too long before the election.
3. The election is already the most polarized ever. Bush has an 86% approval among Republicans and 14% among Democrats. As Grimm pointed out, a lot of voters "hate Bush". I'd have to guess that the people cheering at the film would be in a "hate Bush" category. Grimm pointed out that the movie will swing a lot of votes but also mentioned that he left the theater early so I'm curious as to which voters will be swung, in his opinion. The independents, I guess? Maybe that is true.
Maybe Gallup will do a poll. Just watch next week's poll. Will Kerry get a bump from the movie? If so, wouldn't it be drowned out quickly by the effects of Kerry's choice of running mate, the convention speeches, and world and domestic events? Will Kerry choose a strong running mate who can give him some Southern states? Most people have seen Kerry only a little. When they begin to tune in will they like his personality and his message? Will the jobs picture continue to get better or retract? Will Iraq look any safer in November than it does today?
The single biggest argument you could make in favor of the movie influencing the election is the closeness of the race - which is a decent argument. So could the movie influence enough swing voters in a state like Florida, for example, to vote Kerry? I still doubt it given the above arguments.
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