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Regression towards the mean though. The odds that Iraq will end up worse without Saddam than with him is pretty low.
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Consider lasik surgery to replace the rose colored glasses. While I don't think its as far removed from reality as Cheney/MacRumsfeld's "parades to greet the liberators", it's in the neighborhood.
How many people would have predicted that the fall of Communism would have resulted in the mess formerly known as Yugoslovia?
You really do seem to be advocating a 1989 Afghanistan policy. I think that's as foolhardy as the jingoistic facade of a policy that's gotten us here.