The lines are complicated. But remember they're more about the betting than they are predictions of score. The casinos will give just enough points to the underdog team to get people to bet on 'em.
When setting the lines these days the big vegas bookmakers may use everything from complex computer simulations to the arthritis in their granny's knee to make the forecast. The won-loss record of each team in football isn't all that relevant. Football is played one week at a time and you have to figure in weather, injuries, emotion, etc.
The Falcons this week are a perfect example. They're 2-10 and have looked pretty pathetic all season long. They're playing the division leader and they're only getting 1.5 points. Why? Michael Vick is starting. The feeling with most people betting will be that Carolina has been sliding the the Falcons should be pumped up and a different team with Vick in the game. It only takes 1.5 points to even up the bets. Without Vick, the Falcons probably get 5.5 points against the Panthers.
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