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wig · 07-03-2003

Colin, I agree that trhere are many variables that would eventually be unveiled as the cause. Fundamentals have a way of making a lot of sense in retrospect.

I can certainly see the debate fundamentally for any particular outcome.

That's where I have found studying cycles and market structure to be a more accurate way of assessing the probabilities.

I don't take multi year positions, but methodolgy wise, my work is the same at 1-3 weeks as it is at 1-3 centuries. Of course, synergy of cycles and market structure are always evolving, making longer-term predictions subject to change / tweaking as more data is obtained.

Nevertheless, I see the high probability of an economic upheavel rivaling the Great Depression within the next 20 years.

07-03-2003	#15
wig Members Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 1,248	Colin, I agree that trhere are many variables that would eventually be unveiled as the cause. Fundamentals have a way of making a lot of sense in retrospect. I can certainly see the debate fundamentally for any particular outcome. That's where I have found studying cycles and market structure to be a more accurate way of assessing the probabilities. I don't take multi year positions, but methodolgy wise, my work is the same at 1-3 weeks as it is at 1-3 centuries. Of course, synergy of cycles and market structure are always evolving, making longer-term predictions subject to change / tweaking as more data is obtained. Nevertheless, I see the high probability of an economic upheavel rivaling the Great Depression within the next 20 years.