Wig,
I don't know if I'm an optimist. Maybe a little but I think it's realistic that GDP will grow around 3% per year average for quite some time and a little less as the size of the economy grows. It's more difficult to grow faster percentage-wise from a higher base. One need only witness the growth rates in some of the years in the last century. We don't see anything like those numbers anymore and I think that's largely because of the size of the economy.
GDP can swing, yes. How often should one expect a depression magnitude event or a recession?
I just compiled this info from a list of US Recessions:
12 from 1850-1900. 255 months spent in contraction.
12 from 1901-1950. 210 months spent in contraction.
8 from 1951-2000. 85 months spent in contraction.
What I see is that recessions are somewhat frequent with about one recession every 5 years on average and also that they are of considerably less duration and intensity over time. We've nothing seen nothing like the depression in 65 years. There were some very intense recessions of long duration in the late 1800's. In the second half of the 19th century, 42% of the time the economy was decreasing in size. In the second half of the 20th century, that number was only 15% of the time. I think this reflects knowledge and economic policy.
32 recessions in 150 years. 32 presidents in 150 years. Recessions are frequent and normal.
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