Saddam is confident. Always. Have heard some interesting interviews with defectors that were close to him. He hardly ever receives bad news. He often kills the messenger. A typical Q and A would go like this.
"Are we doing well"?
"Yessir. Everyone is fighting bravely. They love you."
Hard not to remain confident in that self-created atmosphere.
My opinion of what Saddam thinks and plans hasn't waivered one bit since this has started.
1. Defend Baghdad.
2. Force as many coalition casualties as possible
3. He believes the Americans won't fight if they get bloodied enough (He thought that in Gulf War I anyway. I would assume he still thinks that).
4. We'll have to pull out. He'll survive. he'll build WMD. He'll destroy Israel.
That is Saddam.
Strategically it would seem better to place the entire Republican Guard inside of Baghdad/Tikrit but someone that is that obsessed with his personal security I would assume thinks that is too dangerous (coup).
Before Gulf War I, Saddam said that the Americans had air power but that air power had never won a war before. He sees his good points, none of his bad ones, and has continually underestimated his enemies (Israel, US).
It seems that:
Coalition plan has gone exactly according to his plan.
Saddam's plan has gone according to plan.
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