Yeah Colin, it's a tough call believe me. We are at the opposite ends of the spectrum though I'm thinking. The chances that our tiny fraction of the matter explosion created the molecule(s) and none of the others did? I'd say the chances are just as mindstaggeringly small that it only happened once in the unimaginably large process of the creation of the universe.
You're right there are multiple factors, but to me the evidence of other planets with habitable atmospheres and orbits implies that there is some sort of purpose behind what happened to us (no not design theory or anything); that our planet didn't randomly harbor life AND the only habitable atmosphere for it. Unless these other planets are meant as galactic rest stops for our civilization (seems pretty centrist) why not think of them as potential petri dishes for other civilizations?
We'll be able to get a better look at them in 10-15 years, we can start a pool in the mean time if you want.
C.
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