Vick -
I thought you'd be the first to post in this thread.
Probabilty AND data. There are white papers that show the error on NFL point spreads is calculated from the standard deviation for football games (14 points) using the bell-curve. The table I displayed is from theory but is very close to the real data.
The win is not including the point spread. In other words, since the Cardinals are 11 point underdogs to the Eagles this weekend, there is about a 21% chance they will win the game outright.
More accurately, 11 point underdogs win 21% of the time.
Since the error is distibuted symetrically - there is also a 21% chance that an 11 point favorite will win by 22 points.
Last edited by Colin at Nov 14 2002, 10:48 AM
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