Mike,
I think the biggest thing going against Bush is the economy. I am no fundamentalist, so I have no reasons or rationales.... and I certainly do not believe the President has much of impact in determining the outcome.
From a technical and cyclical perspective, I think we are at a very dangerous time economically -- especially with the dollar. I believe that although equities look positive into January, it is another shit sandwich from there. Bonds are not a lock in either, but will perform better. Gold will prove to be the performer IMO.
2003-2004 are critical cyclical periods tied to many equity, middle eastern and war related events of the past. I think we are likely to see some tough times with some really interesting twists. (perhaps another change in currency with total recall of old currency -- this will fuck with the terorrists, money launderers and drug dealers) or (escalations of war that prove detrimental)
Time will tell.
