Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

The more I watch the devastation, the more I'm convinced that the city as we knew it is gone for good. Some parts of the city are completely sub-merged and they're saying that it may take several months before the water is out.

People are on their roofs, and in their attics without water, food or power and apparently nobody is coming to get them. The sickly will soon perish. It's absolutley horrible. The mayor thinks that thousands are dead at the moment with many more to come.

What is Buff and Sig's plan? Are they going to stay in the tower on Poydras and simply wait it out?

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

Looking at the determination and fortitude of the people there I would suspect it will be rebuilt.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

Now there's a big fire at the corner of Canal and Bourbon.

Yes Nick I agree on re-building, but damn... it's going to be all gone I think.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

I would agree it will be rebuilt as well Nick. While the devastation is staggeringly large the devastation could have been much worse but for a gust of dry air that came from the midwest and altered it course slightly and reduced some of it's power.

http://www.breitbart.com/news/na/D8CAS7RO0.html

Meteorologists: It Could Have Been Worse
Aug 31 10:51 AM US/Eastern


By MATT CRENSON
AP National Writer


news://newsclip.ap.org/WXS10108311434@news.ap.org


Devastating as Katrina was, it would have been far worse but for a puff of dry air that came out of the Midwest, weakening the hurricane just before it reached land and pushing it slightly to the east.

The gust transformed a Category 5 monster into a less-threatening Category 4 storm, and pushed Katrina off its Big Easy-bound trajectory, sparing New Orleans a direct hit _ though not horrendous harm.

"It was kind of an amazing sequence of events," said Peter Black, a meteorologist at the Hurricane Research Division of the federal government's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.

On Sunday, meteorologists watched in awe as one of the most powerful hurricanes they had ever seen churned northward over the Gulf of Mexico on a direct bearing for New Orleans. Fed by unusually warm waters in the central gulf, Katrina easily pumped itself up to a Category 5 monster, with top winds approaching 175 mph. That afternoon a National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration aircraft flying through the storm pegged its minimum barometric pressure at 902 millibars, making Katrina the fourth most powerful hurricane ever observed.

But by the time it reached land Monday, Katrina was no stronger than any of a dozen or more hurricanes that have hit the United States in the past century. Hurricane Camille had a substantially lower central pressure when it slammed into Mississippi in 1969. Hurricane Charley blasted the Sunshine State with higher winds when it came ashore near Tampa last year.

So if it wasn't so powerful, how did Hurricane Katrina inflict so much destruction?

The storm's sheer size was one factor. As powerful as Hurricane Charley was, that storm's swath of destruction was only about 10 miles wide. Katrina battered everything from just west of New Orleans to Pensacola, Fla., a span of more than 200 miles. At noon Monday, hurricane force winds extended to 125 miles from Katrina's center.

"This storm was quite a bit larger, so the extent of the damaging wind field would have covered a much larger geographic area," said Marc Levitan, a professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Louisiana State University.

Geography also played a role in the hurricane's destructiveness. The Gulf of Mexico's northern fringe is an extremely shallow shelf extending up to 120 miles offshore. That makes the region's coastline extremely vulnerable to the storm surges that hurricanes create as their winds and low pressure pile up water and push it ashore.

And Katrina was moving fairly slowly, about 12 to 15 mph. That gave the storm surge more time to build up as the hurricane approached the coast and then moved inland.

Those circumstances made Katrina "nearly a worst-case scenario," said Hurricane Research Division meteorologist Stanley Goldberg. Some witnesses reported storm surges of more than 25 feet along the Mississippi coast, among the highest ever recorded. The waters around New Orleans rose as much as 22 feet.

But the catastrophic sequence of events that appeared highly likely on Sunday afternoon _ a Category 5 hurricane washing over the Big Easy's ramparts and filling it like a bowl _ did not come to pass.

Instead, a different scenario unfolded. Several levees failed on Tuesday, unleashing floods that placed the city of 480,000 in peril long after Hurricane Katrina had dissipated.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

It really is a catastrophe. :(

But the United States people ( though I may rag on them in normal times) are a strong resolute breed who will probably say "Fuck this!! We aren't standing for this"

Remember these are the descendants of people , who said.."Whats over that mountain?...Oh its a big fuck off river...wonder whats beyond that river"

Everytime I drive cross country , it amazes me that people were so hardy they walked accross this continent.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

Nawlins has been around over 200 years, it'll be back.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

200 years is not very long at all.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

The people who built NO had built and rebuilt many places before. They were, many of them, Cajun and Creole river rats who were used to living with the water. Before NO, there were other settlements.

It'll be back. The French Quarter particularly (that's a small part of the city), but soon, the rest of the city, too.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

You're right, call it a failed experiment and fill it in.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

I am pretty mixed up emotionally about it all.

I hate to say this, but my feeling is that the city is primarily finished. Mother nature has spoken.

I hope I am wrong. I do hope you are right. I sincerley mean that. However, being from the region, my gut tells me I am right.

Hopefully in a few months you will be reminding me how wrong I was. Being from the region, I grew up with this apocalyptic-scenario as a possibility. It is now a reality.

Again, I hope more than you know to be proven wrong.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

Reality is probably somewhere inbetween.

Will it ever be the same? No.

Will the city just be left there as some sort of swamped ghost town? No.

The water will be drained, power and utilities will be restored, the muck will be cleaned. Buildings will be demolished and rebuilt. I think the time estimates currently being quoted are optimistic. I'd say minimum of 6 months to get back to any thing close to a fully functional city. And maybe a year or even two before it can even begin to resemble it's former self.

Think about little things like school for the kids? How long does it take to rebuild the school system? You need teachers, buildings for them to teach in, supplies, all of these things were washed away and destroyed more than likely. Not to mention buses, bus routes, etc. If you have school age kids do you return home til that's there? Tough choices for families.

A lot of business will not survive. A lot of people will move away.

I have friends from outside this business in Nawlins, they all got out alive. From speaking to them, it's currently about a 50/50 split on whether they'll return. Half say screw it, build somewhere else. The other half want to rebuild.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

fuck all yal.. this aint shit.. NO has been around for 300 years.. the opportunity to rebuild will happen.. we ae not a city to give up. take your doomsday scenartios and stick them up your pussy asses... water is water. devastation is devastation, if you think this will defeat the oldest city in the US.. thats just wishful thinking or blind thinking.. have faith in us.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

quit your smug, stupid idiocy, canadians, make a donatyion, now is not the time for superiority. we are seeing feats of humanity unprecidented.. be part of it or shut up.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

What the hell grimm? smug idiots? Come on man, I made a donation and yes I wear the maple leaf on my back. Would you do the same for me if Montreal were severely hit?

What I am saying is that NOLA as we knew it is gone. Of course it will be re-built, and re-built stronger and readier for disaster. Even the buildings left standing will have so much water damage that they will need to be demolished. Many buildings in the quarter were an eyesore anyway. In time, it will be a more beautified, safer city.

I love New Orleans and have been there many times. I certainly do not wish to see it, it's history and culture, disappear.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

I agree with that.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

I expect New Orleans to be back and better than every within the course of a few years

Different maybe, but still one the most compelling and attractive cities in the world (and truly my favorite city and destination)

Remember New Orleans was burnt down at least twice

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

oh man... being a new father, these stories of families with missing loved ones are really pulling on my heartstrings.

I hope the death toll is nowhere near what some are predicting at the moment. :(

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

New Nawlins will come out of this as a much stronger city.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

I honestly think NO should be abandonded, and be built 20-40 miles UP RIVER away from the lake. Cannot keep a city between lake, river with marsh eroding. Just will happen again. Human beings cannot toil with God and mother nature!

This is coming from someone who is a native. I am still not dealing with it yet, I am still in rescue crisis mode. It is surreal.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

Oh goodgawddamn this has been hard to watch. My heart goes out to the folks affected.

I can't pretend to know what they're going through, but I know what I went through in '93. Mike, some parts of it will stay surreal long after it's all over.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

I just got off the phone with Billy, and I appreciate him taking my call.
Sounds like the gang in the Directnic building are held up well, with plenty of supplies.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

I can certainly see your point Mike. When you consider but for a stream of cool air from the midwest it would have hit New Olreans head on and the surge would have been MUCH bigger one really can't argue that it would happen again in the future.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

I agree with you Mike.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

absolutely i would, im a little knee jerk right now. i apoligize for the overreaction, bravo for making a donation. i have too, which has its own sort of irony. people need people now

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

Some of the city will never be the same again : (

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

I agree, doesn't seem like it'll be smart to build it back up and have this happen again. I am orignally from there too and have just left a few months ago. A few of my friends are sending out resume's and looking for jobs to get out of the state, my mom is looking to transfer, my dad is retired and probobly will move away.

Who wants to be back in with these poeple running around murdering and raping people. I am just thankful that all of my family has gotten out safely. I still have a few friends I am worried about and haven't heard from though.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

If they do just let it go, it would make a great John Carpenter movie...

"Escape from New Orleans"


If Kurt Russell aint up to play Snake Blisken, I'm sure Buff would take the job.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

You know, if they can build an airport in Japan by creating an island where there was none ... then the U.S. should be able to raise the foundation of New Orleans to where it is above sea level and build from there.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

Where are you posting from?

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

The Army Corps has a 15 year plan to rebuild the levees as it stands. While the levees themselves were a good idea at the time - especially during the WPA era when jobs were needed more than anything else, the long term planning on the current levee system just wasn't there. The levees were not designed to withstand the wind and water force that they've taken this time around, mostly due to the fact that the Corp didn't realize the way they built the levees, did the deep water dredging and some other things for the oil and gas people would leave the barrier islands and marshes in a constant state of erosion and eventually fail to protect the levee system.

I don't think NOLA itself is gone, that's a bit dramatic. It seems that the Garden District, the Quarter a a few other areas that were part of the original city are fairly intact, probably due to the fact that they were higher ground in the beginning.

Moving the city up the river isn't a very viable option, imo, more due to the fact that the Port of New Orleans is THE single busiest portage in this country, even more so than the other LA port, Los Angeles. You've also got to account for a huge homeless population, a large portion of which lives well below the poverty level in the best of times -- where are they going to go? Who will take them in? What will they do? They are qualified for manual labor at best. No skills, little education, typical of the region. Send them to Mississippi or Alabama? Hell, those states have their own problems, the only reason you don't hear so much about it is because their problems centered around Monday, not the rest of the week.

The stupidest mistake in the situation is one of two things -- the failure of FEMA or whoever was in charge of levee damage problems OR the failure of the federal government to send in regular military forces before the situation got out of hand.

I'm ashamed and embarassed to see one of THE historical cities in America, one that has survived time and time again, turn into something that rivals civil unrest and war in third world countries. Just unreal.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

Hear hear. It's just not safe to rebuild it, knowing it will happen again. Next time millions could be lost.

Check out this link about the (sinking) levees and trying to hold back the Mississippi:
http://users.stlcc.edu/jangert/oldriver/oldriver.html

If another hurricane doesn't get NO, eventually the Mississippi will. She won't be held back forever. Between her and the hurricanes, it's just a matter of time.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

Levees, dams, spillways, canals, causeways. All these things make the world as we know it go around. To say that you can't use them to control the flow of water is saying that you should go ahead and expect every region that uses these things to be destroyed and that we just shouldn't bother. Hell for that matter, I guess we should just fill the Panama Canal back in and send the ships around Good Hope...

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

Just saw pics of Billy from Sig's latest upload ...

It's going to sound cliched, but it's true. You can see the heartbreak of the whole experience written on him. Didn't even recognize him for a few moments. When I did. Wow. You can see the exhaustion, and the whole sad thing reflected there ... I just don't have the words except to say it makes my heart heavy, just very heavy.

http://oprano.com/msgboard/images/smilies/sad.gif

That and, of course, continued pride in the job he's doing!!! http://oprano.com/msgboard/images/smilies/salute.gif
(Yeah, this might be a cutsy emoticon, but damn it, the thought is very sincere.)

I'd suggest that no one post anything directly to tie anything in (if you get my drift). I'll just say the lastest pics are up at the blog if you're interested.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

Damn, looking at those pictures I somehow got even more worried about him :(

He said there's not even a way to mail or FedEx stuff to them. I know the wife and baby need help (they are in TX) and I have contact info privately if anyone would like it.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

LOL... this had also crossed my mind.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

Wouldn't that be crazy?

Why not sieze the opportunity and build New New Orleans - The newest city so good they named it twice! ;)

But seriously, why invite this to happen again? Levees will break. The area is 10 feet under sea level. At least San Fransisco is only on an earthquake fault - only certain areas would be destroyed. But break the southern levees and you flood an area the size of the UK...

I think it's time to move on to bigger and better things instead of talking of rebuilding.

- Robin.

Re: Is New Orleans a write-off?
 

Wow, an area the size of the UK. I didn't know it would be so extreme if the levees failed.