What is going to fuel it?
What has changed to make anything better?
What has changed to make anyone think they will increase earnings in 2005?

Who's going to find the next big thing, the next reality craze, the next billing methods, the next new products, the next new marketing strategies, the next big thing webhamsters will have to have, the new traffic generation methods?

Is a "new" just a well forgotten old?

Who has the finds to take more hits from processing and survive?

Some companies (and people) have fallen out but not enough yet to make a big difference

Could be wrong but looking around I think this may be the sparsest attended January Internext

To some degree I really don't see any big changes and still see a lot of complacency

(I know) some like Nick and myself have incentive, opportunity and working capitol to earn more in 2005, primarily by applying ourselves (or reapplying) spending more time and effort in the on line business

Only on the first cup of coffee so thoughts are still swirling, just wanted to get this started. I know some of what I'll be doing but .......

What do you think?

I think there's many big things on the horizon... I know I was brought on board to Porncity/Stiffycash because of a major project that will effect the bottom line for many webmasters and program owners alike...

I also know of a few others that have very respectable track records are planning some new and exciting stuff... MarcDe mentioned in a GFY thread that ARS has BIG things coming out very soon...

I personally feel 2005 will be a Great year, of course I think we will some more division between the people who are serious about this business and weekend webhamsters making a few extra bucks.

Also, new ideas are at premium these days, so people tend to keep them closer to belt, than in days past...

I hope you are right.

I would like to see the end of pay per post , ok so I hired the fist "boardwhores" to sit and just post on a board , but now its got daft.

At least the ones I hired had a clue about the business and did not just post pics of them throwing 300,000 lira in the air.

I hope there will be a few changes in 2005... however I do not know if it will be wise to try and predict them without a signed NDA ;-))

The porn industry in general will still be a multi billion dollar business, and see an increase in total revenue.

the key is, who will be the bennificaries of that this year?

human nature can not be cghhanged or controlled enough to ever " KILL" porn so the ones that have the best accountants , bankers, and lawyers will always succeed that is where the profit comes in

everything else is just cash flow to hire the best team and win the championship!

Vick as an aside there attendance numbers for the show are actually up this year.

Boardwhoring, for the most part in my mind anyway, is the last step before someone's final exit... It's a step below TGP submit checker... :D

Its all the surfer/webhamsters hoping to met pornstars. LOL


:okthumb: lol

There will always be new guys with new ideas and/or new slants on old ideas...

the ways of old (shady billing, etc.) will go away and some of the old guard who only know how to make money that way will be gone or have moved on to the new scam of the moment. Those who can adapt will survive and these new companies will be successful...while they won't make as much money as the "good old days" they'll still earn a decent profit and make more money than they would selling women's shoes at Walmart....

so the question begs...


How to part the durfer from his money without going through processing as we know it?

... and weasels hiding in their burrows ready to mass copy them! :matey:

... and weasels hiding in their burrows ready to mass copy them! :matey: [/b][/quote]
well, that's a given ;-)

well, that's a given ;-) [/b][/quote]
Precisely. :)

The demand for porn always has and will be there.

However, growth on the web is currently ham strung by processing. Processing rules are getting more and more restrictive. The scrubbing has reached sandpaper levels. We have ourselves or at least our "colleagues" to blame as fraud has necessitated it.

The next big surge in growth is likely to be led by a major change in either processing or the economics if not a full out replacement of the "subscription" model.

when you look at everything from a negative perspective, everything seems negative..

Each year I've increased my bottom line.

More people are buying porn than ever before, its a matter of every squirrel getting their nut and keeping on TOP of the industry and truly understanding the industry and what is going on.

... and weasels hiding in their burrows ready to mass copy them! :matey: [/b][/quote]
I thought you liked weasle ????

There is a Santa Claus, Virginia. However he's got a few distribution issues that are going to neccessitate someone biting the bullet and paying for it. ATM billing is a reality already, in a way that the banking system approves of and encourages, but it is expensive. However, you then bypass the card associations entirely so the parameters are wide open compared to the current Visa/MC regs.

I heard a rumor that non-US Visa processing is going to get a new allowable CB limit this year that is very unfriendly to site owners and processors, regardless of whose merchant account they are using.

To counter that of course, I do have firsthand knowledge of some potential new banks opening up who will be courting a certain subset of the adult market fairly aggressively. That subset will be the one that's looking for a longer term solution, not a turn and burn scenario.

we manage to get the surfer to get out his credit card and our chargeback rate is way below the threshhold...we have novel concepts like actually having the content we advertise, not fucking around with the surfer's card, answering member emails, etc.

I'm sure though, that if our PPS program was open to all, we'd get hit with more fraudulant signups which would lead to more issues...

I'm also amazed at the lack of enthusiasm for SMS billing in the US. I figured adult would be the first industry to really push this and push for it...I guess it would be hard for some companies to double and triple bill SMS (for now ;-))

cell phone products/billing.

we manage to get the surfer to get out his credit card and our chargeback rate is way below the threshhold...we have novel concepts like actually having the content we advertise, not fucking around with the surfer's card, answering member emails, etc.

I'm sure though, that if our PPS program was open to all, we'd get hit with more fraudulant signups which would lead to more issues...

I'm also amazed at the lack of enthusiasm for SMS billing in the US. I figured adult would be the first industry to really push this and push for it...I guess it would be hard for some companies to double and triple bill SMS (for now ;-)) [/b][/quote]
Great points. I'd be repeating you if I said more. B) Totally agree.

is that why you wont give me a PPS program ?

>> the upcoming On Line Porn Renaissance?

in 2005 we'll make 25% more than we did in 2004
thats not a prediction, thats a fact.

prediction would be about 30% more, i tend to always surprise myself.

My theory....

You shift the risk back to where it belongs.....with the seller.

Here's what I mean....in our current system, the surfer takes the risk, he coughs up his credit card number including an immediate charge. He's risking that the site will actually give him what was advertised in the tour, will cancel his rebills when he asks, etc. Historically, adult has been infested with thieving bastards (all due respect of course!) who push the edge as far as it will go, thus making that a high risk proposition and bringing down the wrath of Visa, the FTC and anyone else who will listen to the screams of the raped apes...

A better system has the seller accepting the risk. He doesn't get paid until the surfer has actually incurred usage on his product. Now there certainly are surfers who are also thieving bastards (again all due respect!), so fraud control and some sort of "credit rating" type system would need to be included.

It's no different than say buying a cellphone. The guy who has great credit and pays his bills can walk in, signup for 1000 minutes per month, and walk out the door with a top of the line handset just based on his signature and he'll be billed later. If the service works as advertised he'll pay that bill as he always does, if not, he returns and cancels it. Now for the guys with no credit who are prone not to pay their bills they dont leave the store with shit unless they either prepay or cough up a deposit.

A similar system can work in adult. 123Bill dances around this model, but in their model THEY accept the risk and take a huge cut as a result as they no doubt get scammed on both ends.

But I think if you treat the paying surfer as a customer and deliver what you promise, you do fine as long as you have a way to collect. By shifting the burden back onto the webmaster, the guy who suffers is the guy with the tour of an Asian site showing dozens of red hot asian teens, but then has a members area with 12 galleries of 3 different asian women who all look 50 years old plus an assortment of plug-ins for everything BUT asians....

Some interesting posts but no meat (I'm guilty too)
and I don't blame you, one of the differences in the game now is we keep it close to the vest

How many "great ideas" or "important developments" or "major projects" have we heard tell of in the past year or two that didn't pan out
(that's not a piss on anyone's leg, when I worked in new product dev for a well known company the brass wanted 1 out 10 new products we came up with to flourish - drove me nuts)

Processing is so key (my gift for the obvious), the biggest piece to the puzzle

Does any one give thought to a new content delivery system? What is the last one we saw? TPG? that's how many years old?
TGP2 failed in terms of market reach

Robin tried the UBB style site but didn't get that many eyes to it and maybe didn't have the time and make the refinements

No mention of new presentation of product?


Yep, you're right. People are going to look at porn. Many will buy porn

Now what ya going to do to make 2005 bigger $ wise? Why is there going to be a Porn Renaissance?

In some ways going back to what worked and what I did best, with some new twists

Once more - "new" can be a well forgotten old


Edited - then Hell Puppy posts a little meat while I'm posting
Damn Athlete's Tongue (from foot in mouth)

Adult is consistently becoming less of an over all percentage of our portfolio while still growing at a good clip.

Some of this is a result of credit card throughput (or lack thereof) and some of it is a result of merchants looking to diversify their ACH away from their CC processing.

Regardless, we expect to continue growing at a rate of 30% at a minimum.

I do not think new billing solutions are going to play a major role; however, "changes" in past billing solutions (including ACH) will play a significant role in the landscape change.

Vick,

Please do not use the words "hell puppy" and "little meat" in the same sentence.

Thanks!

:biglaugh:

My theory....

You shift the risk back to where it belongs.....with the seller.

Here's what I mean....in our current system, the surfer takes the risk, he coughs up his credit card number including an immediate charge. He's risking that the site will actually give him what was advertised in the tour, will cancel his rebills when he asks, etc. Historically, adult has been infested with thieving bastards (all due respect of course!) who push the edge as far as it will go, thus making that a high risk proposition and bringing down the wrath of Visa, the FTC and anyone else who will listen to the screams of the raped apes...

A better system has the seller accepting the risk. He doesn't get paid until the surfer has actually incurred usage on his product. Now there certainly are surfers who are also thieving bastards (again all due respect!), so fraud control and some sort of "credit rating" type system would need to be included.

It's no different than say buying a cellphone. The guy who has great credit and pays his bills can walk in, signup for 1000 minutes per month, and walk out the door with a top of the line handset just based on his signature and he'll be billed later. If the service works as advertised he'll pay that bill as he always does, if not, he returns and cancels it. Now for the guys with no credit who are prone not to pay their bills they dont leave the store with shit unless they either prepay or cough up a deposit.

A similar system can work in adult. 123Bill dances around this model, but in their model THEY accept the risk and take a huge cut as a result as they no doubt get scammed on both ends.

But I think if you treat the paying surfer as a customer and deliver what you promise, you do fine as long as you have a way to collect. By shifting the burden back onto the webmaster, the guy who suffers is the guy with the tour of an Asian site showing dozens of red hot asian teens, but then has a members area with 12 galleries of 3 different asian women who all look 50 years old plus an assortment of plug-ins for everything BUT asians.... [/b][/quote]
HP,

We do this with CyberTokens.

We screen the user, make them answer out of wallet questions and make them confirm a microdeposit we place into their account.

The charge-back rate is about .25% and we offer the surfer anonymity, security and service.

Our rate is the same as a regular check processing.

is that why you wont give me a PPS program ? [/b][/quote]
nope, it's because we can't pay you what you want without shaving you ;-)
although, I'll run the numbers with the new pricing points we have and see what we can do

we manage to get the surfer to get out his credit card and our chargeback rate is way below the threshhold...we have novel concepts like actually having the content we advertise, not fucking around with the surfer's card, answering member emails, etc.

I'm sure though, that if our PPS program was open to all, we'd get hit with more fraudulant signups which would lead to more issues...

I'm also amazed at the lack of enthusiasm for SMS billing in the US. I figured adult would be the first industry to really push this and push for it...I guess it would be hard for some companies to double and triple bill SMS (for now ;-)) [/b][/quote]
Sky, the problem with SMS in the US is that it is used VERY little...

Most surfers aren't even that it exists, and I would be willing to bet that when they are surfing porn, wouldn't be the best time to teach them about it -Lack of attention...

But as to the bigger proccessing question, we may have some answers for you guys, get with at the show and I'll give you a sneak peek... :awinky:

We tried various solutions for checks with not much in the results department. Wig asked us if we wanted to beta test Cybertokens. We did and the results were not only better than everything else we tried but they were substantial.

Disclaimer. This is not a paid endorsement

Great topic Vick. I'd love to blab away, but that's why I didn't. Not wanting to give away my ideas and new projects in the works.