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Since I know nothing about football, I'm TRYING to look at this logically and it makes no sense to me:
Why does Indiana get 3.5 points on the spread this week? :zoinks: |
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I suck at math. :angry: |
The lines are complicated. But remember they're more about the betting than they are predictions of score. The casinos will give just enough points to the underdog team to get people to bet on 'em.
When setting the lines these days the big vegas bookmakers may use everything from complex computer simulations to the arthritis in their granny's knee to make the forecast. The won-loss record of each team in football isn't all that relevant. Football is played one week at a time and you have to figure in weather, injuries, emotion, etc. The Falcons this week are a perfect example. They're 2-10 and have looked pretty pathetic all season long. They're playing the division leader and they're only getting 1.5 points. Why? Michael Vick is starting. The feeling with most people betting will be that Carolina has been sliding the the Falcons should be pumped up and a different team with Vick in the game. It only takes 1.5 points to even up the bets. Without Vick, the Falcons probably get 5.5 points against the Panthers. |
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Pretty much. If a team you think is going to win is the underdog, take 'em anyway and consider the points a gift. |
all the line is, is the point spread that will get equal money bet on both teams
then the bookie/casino makes his 10% vig |
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I have to agree with you Peaches! I think I ask this same question every week to my friends and it still just doesn't make sense to me! LOL and I am just glad I like the game and don't worry about how much I suck when I do my picks, hehe :agrin: |
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The spread does equalize things somewhat. I think the true champion of the pickem last year was likely the "random picks" button. I think the weekly winner was someone who had hit "random" almost half of the weeks last year. Shame it is missing from the software this year. And welcome to the board by the way, just looked at your site, very nice. |
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And welcome to the board by the way, just looked at your site, very nice.[/b][/quote] Thank you so much Hell Puppy! I will take a compliment whenever I get it! Although I am fixing to make some changes to the site, at least my processor. Ohh and I didn't do all that bad this week in my picks, my "newest" system seemed to work this week WooHoo! Not to mention that I have my own pool on my site and if I lose against a particular player I have to eat an Anchovy on cam....I am pulling out all the stops to make sure I don't! :matey: |
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I have a friend that makes his living betting sports. He only bets a few games a week but he bets heavy when he does. All he does is look for point spreads that are out of whack. He's amazing at it but won't share his picks with anyone. :( |
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I have a friend that makes his living betting sports. He only bets a few games a week but he bets heavy when he does. All he does is look for point spreads that are out of whack. He's amazing at it but won't share his picks with anyone. :([/b][/quote] Wow, that sounds crazy to me, but if it works! :bjump: |
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