Some talk that the first big strategic battle may occur soon, the battle for the Karbala Gap. This is a piece of land that if taken would open the path to Baghdad from the South and West. This is the area where planners were worried that Iraq may destroy dams and flood the ground muddying the advance path. Would also be a strategic place to use chemical weapons.

Word seems to be leaking out that the next big ground offensive will start soon.

A big battle is coming, but I think the outcome is already decided. I am not worried about their military, I am worried about chemical weapons attacks, or possibly flood from the dams....

I think Republican Guard is tired of being pounded, are weakened and when they see REAL concerted attack, on all front from a huge army, with air support, helicopter support, they are going to shit a brick - they will run, or they will die. That is the only possible outcome.

The IRaqi Army does not have the ability to wage a battle like this effectively - epecially after knocking out all their command and control. Those Army units will be isolated and not able to communicate with their breatheran.

Mike,

100% with you. Every word.

Solid Analysis where War is At

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=200304...01-053911-9329r

Analysis: Republican Guard's last stand
By Martin Walker
UPI Chief International Correspondent
From the International Desk
Published 4/1/2003 11:38 AM
View printer-friendly version


KUWAIT CITY, April 1 (UPI) -- The war entered its decisive phase Tuesday as midday temperatures in central Iraq soared toward 100 degrees and U.S. forces advanced into Iraq's so-called Red Zone around Baghdad, where local commanders may have authority to use chemical weapons, coalition leaders say.

The best of Iraq's conventional forces, five Republican Guard divisions, have now been identified gathering south of Baghdad for what looks to be the decisive battle of the war. Coalition military intelligence sources add that a sixth RG Division, the al-Adnan, is also reported moving south from Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit to join them.

They are moving into a killing ground, the flood plain of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers south of Baghdad. It is a relatively confined battlefield where allied warplanes and combat helicopters now hover like predatory hawks to swoop on any target that shows itself. The clear weather conditions, and the coming of the heat of a desert summer, suggest that coalition commanders are pressing on to Baghdad without waiting for the expected reinforcement of the U.S. 4th Infantry Division.

Although no Iraqi chemical or biological weapons have yet been deployed or found, chemical alert and response units were close behind the forward U.S. troops Tuesday just in case. Large numbers of Iraqi gas masks and other protective gear have been found by advancing coalition forces, suggesting that Iraqi units are ready for chemical warfare.

The airstrikes against the dug-in RG units were backed up by the artillery from the U.S. 3rd Division, their shells now able range up to 10 miles from Baghdad itself. Units of the 3rd Division hooked around the key town of Karbala and established firing positions and pushed forward observation posts to bring direct fire only Iraqi defensive positions.

The 5 RG divisions are anchored on the Medina armored division, the strongest of all, which began the war with 20,000 troops and 270 of Iraq's most advanced Soviet-built T-72 tanks. They are outmatched by the U.S. M1-A1 Abrams tanks, which can pick them off at a distance while remaining out of rage of the T-72 guns -- if the visibility is clear enough.

Coalition spokesmen said Tuesday they believed the Medina division had lost up to a third of its force, and was reduced to filling its ranks with makeshift recruits rounded up from nearby villages. The remnants of another RG battalion surrendered to U.S. troops Tuesday, after days of battering from the air.

Two of the other RG divisions south of Baghdad, the Hamurabi and the Al-Nida, are armored units, but equipped with 1960s vintage T-62 tanks, and thought to number not much more than 10,000 troops each. The Baghdad mechanized infantry division, already worn down by a series of defensive battles against advancing U.S. Marines in the south, has been reinforced by the Nebuchadnezzar RG division which was brought down from Tikrit over the last week.

The objective of coalition commanders is to destroy these RG divisions where they stand, rather than let them fall back into Baghdad to stiffen the city's defenses. Once inside the city, where they can take cover from coalition air power, they could be a much more difficult to tackle than they are now on the relatively open ground south of Baghdad.

Coalition military sources said the advances upon Baghdad, and first ground war clashes with the Republican Guard, decisively refuted the media suggestions over the weekend of a pause in operations. They dismissed suggestions of a "race for Baghdad" between the two prongs of the U.S. advance, the Marines from the south and the 3rd Infantry Division from the southwest, noting one of the key breakthroughs to the town of Hindiya was achieved by the 101st Airborne.

"The 101st sent small reconnaissance teams by helicopter deep into Iraqi lines, where they spotted and targeted Iraqi positions and then called in artillery and air strikes," a military source in Kuwait told United Press International. "So when the main assault went in, the Iraqis had very little left to stop it."

The capture Monday of the bridge over the Euphrates at Hindiya means that the two advancing U.S. columns can now communicate directly, and coalition commanders can use it to seize tactical opportunities and push reinforcements from one front to the other.

Meanwhile in southern Iraq, British troops took the final bridge around Basra, virtually sealing off the city except for a small land route up the eastern bank of the Tigris. The British are still deliberately holding back from a full-scale assault on the city, but nibbling at its edges and raiding and bombing the buildings from which Saddam Hussein's loyalists try to maintain their grip on the city.

British Marines stepped up their patrols around Basra after two Iraqi Seersucker missiles, Russian-based projectiles modified from anti-ship missiles, were fired overnight. One landed close to the British prisoner of war camp outside Umm Qasr, where over 3,000 Iraqi prisoners are held. The other stuck close to a site previously occupied by the headquarters of the Royal Marine Commandos.

A missile related to the Seersucker, the Silkworm, hit a Kuwait City shopping mall over the weekend. No casualties were reported from the explosion, which occurred in the early hours of Sunday morning.

Sounds like maybe the big ground offensive has started.

Huge fight near Karbala. Taking the Karbala gap?

Yeah Colin, NEW MOON - very dark.

The 3rd ID, Marines, and 101 Airborne are all attacking at same time. It will be a meat grinder for Iraqis. They cannot comprehend what is in store for them coming from all directions. A co-ordinated attacked from 3 major armies , helicopters, close air support..... devistating.

I rushed home to watch TV..... I think we will see more on Fox.

I love Col Hunt on Fox News.... he is funny!!

Mike, you're a moron! Totally wrong!

April Fool's :P

Very interesting analysis, actually.

Bet I didn't fool ya, but damned Nick beat me to it this morning! :P

Yup. Perfect night.

I'm flipping back and forth between Fox and MSNBC.

Colin, don't you find Fox a bit too sensationalistic?

I watch TV news only to be entertained and to catch breaking stories. So for that reason, I PREFER the news to be sensationalistic. Fox does a good job.

In the end, I prefer to READ the news.

CNN is boring. Puts me to :zzz:

For TV news I definitely prefer Fox. They are a bit sensationalistic, however, they really seem to be more accurate than the other networks. Lots of stuff I've read on the internet and seen on Fox has been quite accurate, and CNN definitely puts me to sleep... ;-)

The left wing message boards refer to them as Faux News. hahaha





Last edited by VooMan at Apr 2 2003, 01:41 AM

Remarkably, I have found that MSNBC has been fairly decent with coverage, except that they tend to stray to sensationalism...

Did anyone else catch that CNN used the war as a good time to dump Connie Chung? She's so gone.

Alex

Marines have crossed the Tigris somewhere in the vicinity of Al Kut, reports MSNBC. The 101st is currently moving towards Baghdad from the Central West and the 3 ID is approaching via the Southwest in what appears to be a three pronged attack.

Looks like the battle was expected to last the entire day, lasted 3 hours!!! Nice job by 3rd ID.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?t...storyID=2491488

I love this quote: "U.S. Marines have now been able to bypass al-Kut. They have now bridged the Tigris river. They are on route six and they are heading north toward Baghdad. Even more important, they encountered the Baghdad division of the Republican Guard ... and basically made this a completely ineffective fighting force," Arnot said.

They never say they were slaughtered!!! That is what happened, and will continue to.

Not to mention, Fox has the best news hotties. hahahaha

Anyone else worried that once the coalition forces all get into and around Baghdad in a concentrated cluster and it's evident that Saddam's last hour is approaching, that he will detonate something?
He considers himself to BE Iraq, and considers Iraq to BE him - and he refuses to be taken (if he's even still alive). I can see him levelling himself in order to become a martyr while wiping out the bulk of the coalition forces.

They need to can Aaron Brown too. I really can't stand him, grrrrrr.

I forget where I heard this but someone said that the invasion of Baghdad will be like a knife fight in a phone booth.

*is* there any way its not going to be a complete clusterfuck? Im clueless about military logistics.

Same here.

A phone booth that covers more than 250 square miles.

I would ASSUME there are going to be waves of special operations raids into Baghdad to kidnap and kill Ba'ath baddies. I don't know what a "clusterfuck" would be but it is certainly POSSIBLE we could see casualties in the 1k+ range and I would not call that a clusterfuck. Not saying that likely, just possible depending on circumstance. There are probably handfuls of special forces, informants and other insiders already in Baghdad that such operations will derive success from.

I can't imagine they will be bring tanks down mainstreet supported by apaches unless they have to force entry to a highly-ranked official. We're coming for you Saddam!

I'm sure there is an excellent tasks-oriented plan. We can be sure the plan isn't to get to Baghdad and then figure something out.



Last edited by Colin at Apr 2 2003, 08:17 AM

In the year 689 AD, there was a Battle of Karbala in which Hussein's son Ali was killed in battle.

Ali was the founder of the Shi'ite sect of Islam.

Shi'ites view this as the martyrdom of Hussein and the Battle of Karbala is considered one of the most important events in Shi'ite history.

The analysis of ex-generals has been pretty disappointing. My dart-board is beating them.

Anyone else see Ollie North losing his composure a little last night?

CENTCOM briefing says a dam near Karbala was taken by special forces to prevent it's destruction.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?t...storyID=2493599
U.S. Says Vanguard 19 Miles from S. Baghdad
Wed April 2, 2003 07:36 AM ET

SOUTH OF BAGHDAD (Reuters) - U.S. forces in the vanguard of an advance on Baghdad from the southwest were just 19 miles from the southern edge of the Iraqi capital on Wednesday, a U.S. military source in the field told Reuters.

Forward units of a second advance, from the southeast along the Tigris river valley, were as near as 25 miles away.

A Reuters correspondent with units of the U.S. Third Infantry Division west of the Euphrates river near Kerbala, 70 miles south of Baghdad, quoted officers saying their advance had met less resistance than expected.

To the east, U.S. Marines said they crossed the Tigris river near Kut, 68 miles southeast of the capital, early on Wednesday and took control of the important Highway 6 leading to Baghdad, a sprawling city of five million that straddles the Tigris.

19 miles...holy shit!

we ARE getting close

Sun will be setting over Baghdad in a few hours.

I think the US army will try and divide Baghdad into to atleast 2 zones (probably more) - that way they can clear one zone at a time for any enemy units. At the same time they will probably use special operations raids into the enemy zones to kill any Iraqie leaders - prehaps even Saddam.

MissEve,
The forces learned a lot of important lessons during Kuwait. The city is setup much like Baghdad, with very narrow streets and high buildings. Makes perfect settings for snipers on a roof.
So they'll definitely be using the Apaches heavily this time to take out the snipers before the troops move into an area, and if necessary they'll do what they did in Kuwait - enter a building and "walk" down the block by busting through walls in the building until they get to the other side of the block. Harder and slower, but sometimes safer than trying to walk down a narrow street.
This is definitely the situation where special forces and "tap tap" sniper skills are going to shine.

MSNBC embed David Bloom reporting that this force at Baghdad mile marker 19 is in position to block Medina division from receiving reinforcements while the 3rd ID attacks Medina division (soon).

Word is ...

Baghdad division of Republican Guard destroyed.
Medina division of Republican Guard destroyed.

See ya