From Drudge:

17:12:21 ET // UPDATE: Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday evening after exit data from big media sources claimed Kerry competitive in key states.... FL Kerry +1 PA Kerry+2-4 OH Kerry+1 WI Kerry+4 MI Kerry+2 NH Kerry +4 // Senate Winners: Martinez FL Thune SD Bunning KY Salazar CO // Losers: Bowles NC Coors Co [But early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [Bush won by 9], 2000 exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [Bush won by 6]... Developing...



From http://www.slate.com/id/2109053/


The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard:

Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45

Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46

Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47

Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40

Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48

North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51

Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53

Other exit-poll results have arrived in more vague form, with Kerry leading Bush in New Hampshire but trailing him in Arizona and Louisiana.

I'm pretty certain whomever wins 2 of these 3 states will be the next president ...

Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45

ELECTION NIGHT BLOG: An 'E&P' First

By Greg Mitchell

Published: November 02, 2004 5:00 PM continually updated

5:00 p.m. ET:

It's an election year ritual: early in the afternoon all major news organizations get the results of exit polls and coyly refuse to release the results. This obviously doesn't hold back the Web, especially in these blog rolling days. Matt Drudge used to have the field pretty much to himself, and indeed he had the first hint up today, about 2:00 pm, when he suggested in a headline that Kerry insiders were happy with the early numbers.

But now he has more competition, and numerous other bloggers, especially those leaning left, were happy to release full details, reputedly from Voter News Service, showing Kerry with leads in nearly every key battleground state, with some margins surprisingly wide (in Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin) and others narrow (Ohio, Florida, Michigan).

At about 4 o'clock, Slate.com then weighed in with additional numbers, amid reports that women may have been somewhat over-sampled earlier. These figures still showed Kerry doing very well nearly everywhere but with only razor-close margins in Ohio, Florida and New Mexico. Shockingly, he was within striking distance in North Carolina.

Does this mean anything? The gamblers think so, as overseas betting lines quickly shifted from Bush to Kerry. What a world.

Liberal bloggers also noted huge turnouts in Kerry-friendly precincts, even above hopeful projections. Spin or win?

Exit polls mean nothing.

I think they give a good hint but I'm not even convinced they are real. No number of people polled in the exit poll? That's strange. And Kerry by 18% in Minn? Then again,who would make up such a whacky number?

I think they give a good hint but I'm not even convinced they are real. No number of people polled in the exit poll? That's strange. And Kerry by 18% in Minn? Then again,who would make up such a whacky number? [/b][/quote]


Remember the exit polling last election? We would be talking about President Gore.

I do not think Bush will win, but I also did not think he would win 4 years ago. I have been wrong before....

Hopefully again.

From a National Review blog:

Remember the exit polling last election? We would be talking about President Gore.

I do not think Bush will win, but I also did not think he would win 4 years ago. I have been wrong before....

Hopefully again. [/b][/quote]
Even worse. Last time the REAL counts -not just exits - were off from the finals until late in the night.

I'm just saying if Kerry has those kind of numbers in the exits in that many states once the polls close there is a very good chance he will win.

http://www.sunherald.com/mld/sunherald/new...cs/10079929.htm

An early cut of the exit polls conducted by CBS shows Sen. John Kerry ahead as a heavy turnout of voters head to the polls in the presidential election.

According to the exit polls, Kerry is up by 4 in Florida, Michigan and Ohio and is up by as much as 6 in Wisconsin.


By far the largest lead for Kerry is in New Hampshire, where the polls show him leading by 18. President Bush, however, is up by 10 in Arkansas and 2 in Colorado.

Iowa shows Kerry and President Bush neck-and-neck.

Even worse. Last time the REAL counts -not just exits - were off from the finals until late in the night.

I'm just saying if Kerry has those kind of numbers in the exits in that many states once the polls close there is a very good chance he will win. [/b][/quote]


Exit polling is primarily down in urban areas. It is impossible for the media, even working together to cover the entire state of Florida. Even taking sampling in certain counties will not help. What is the margin of error on these polls?

Plus those who vote Republican tend to have jobs....

Was that a burn... Yep, I think that was a burn.....

Was that a burn... Yep, I think that was a burn..... [/b][/quote]
"burn". The 70's ruled. ;-)

Exit polling is primarily down in urban areas. It is impossible for the media, even working together to cover the entire state of Florida. Even taking sampling in certain counties will not help. What is the margin of error on these polls?

Plus those who vote Republican tend to have jobs.... [/b][/quote]
The kids are going to make the difference. They are the ones that have to live with the consequences longer than us. They will vote Kerry. Kerry will win. Sanity will once again prevail. End of story.

What I don't understand is how any pornographer could support an administration that wants to send us all to hell. If it was not for 911, Ashcroft might have already sunk us.

Yeah, but the pollsters forgot to talk to the supreme court which was the only exit poll that would have mattered....

:yowsa:

sigh

Taxes. Hell, I'm about this far <-> from voting for Bush cuz I KNOW my taxes are going up if Kerry is elected. Kerry has already said so. There's enough stuff I don't like about Bush to balance it out though. I think the democratic pornographers are overly worried about the Republican party. Fear, fear, fear.

Name one successful politician at the National Level that is for porn.

Any and all of them would gladly send us to hell in a heartbeat if it meant one more vote for them.

I do not like asscroft but I don't know of anyone that would be put into that position that wouldn't go after porn. Remember, the case that keeps us all out of jail on 2257 stuff is "RENO" v Sundance (or Sundance V Reno, can never remember which way that goes) So the attorney general under Clinton went after porn. Hell, it's the reno administration that put all the "secondary producer" jargon in there in the first place.

Taxes. Hell, I'm about this far <-> from voting for Bush cuz I KNOW my taxes are going up if Kerry is elected. Kerry has already said so. There's enough stuff I don't like about Bush to balance it out though. I think the democratic pornographers are overly worried about the Republican party. Fear, fear, fear. [/b][/quote]
Here's the deal. If Bush had his way, you as a pornographer would pay no taxes at all. Great deal. You would also be out of business and not earning money. At least with Kerry, the spotlight will be removed. Ashcroft will be gone. Its a win win situation. And its looking great at the moment. Hell nothing wrong with paying taxes. If you pay a lot of tax, you are making a lot of money. What is wrong with that?

If Kerry is elected I will pay more taxes for the SAME amount of income. Hello, I already pay more taxes for making more money. There is something wrong with that in my view. I think the chances of me going out of business because Bush is president are about 0. Of course, 4 years ago there were hundreds of posts on the board predicting the end of online porn under Bush and nothing happened. As far as those two issues I am much more worried about skyrocketing taxes than I am about porn prosecutions.

Now one thing I don't like about Bush is his standing in the international community. I'm not sure how much of the attitude toward Bush is disingeneous - how much of it is anti-US and not just anti-Bush. I'd be interested in finding out.

I'll be fine with either candidate winning and very happy if the senate goes the opposite way.

If Kerry is elected I will pay more taxes for the SAME amount of income. Hello, I already pay more taxes for making more money. There is something wrong with that in my view. I think the chances of me going out of business because Bush is president are about 0. Of course, 4 years ago there were hundreds of posts on the board predicting the end of online porn under Bush and nothing happened. As far as those two issues I am much more worried about skyrocketing taxes than I am about porn prosecutions.

Now one thing I don't like about Bush is his standing in the international community. I'm not sure how much of the attitude toward Bush is disingeneous - how much of it is anti-US and not just anti-Bush. I'd be interested in finding out.

I'll be fine with either candidate winning and very happy if the senate goes the opposite way. [/b][/quote]
I just got back from France and Italy. I would say that Europeans are afraid of Bush and do not hate the United States. Just my impression talking to a lot of Europeans.
Hopefully Kerry will mend fences. The doors will certainly be open to a new administration and I think they will probably make it their first order of business.

That may very well be. However the reasons why people say things about their political beliefs and the reality are often quite different. I believe that people subconciously form their opinions of the world based largely upon a sort of balance of power. Human nature drives history. Tip of the hat to Thucydides on that one.

When the Soviets and the US were the two world superpowers people in countries tended to support one and fear the other. Remove the Soviets from the equation and
add Iraq as a catalyst and now people fear the US. Would that have happened with or without Bush? I have a hunch that it would happen no matter what based upon the past history of such things.

There were plenty of articles in the 1990s, as an example, outlining an increase in anti-Americanism abroad which as we know exploded under the Bush/Iraq catalyst.

The days of the Atlantic Alliance being important is over. Without the threat of Germany/Soviet Union the Western Europeans no longer need the United States. Infact it has come to a point where they actually work against us. We need to understand Europe is now competition and an aversary in world politics.

Kissinger got it right, we need to turn our attention to new alliances - Asia is the place to start.

The EC is becoming a huge economic machine. You should be looking at it as a business opportunity. I do. You better work with them, because working against them is crazy. They certainly share more western values than China which is certainly to be feared.
Remember America's oldest ally is France.

Thanks. We have offices in Europe. Not in France though ;-)

Thanks. We have offices in Europe. Not in France though ;-) [/b][/quote]
Then you agree. :rolleyes:

From CNN:

Voting is over in six states after a day of tough decisions in the presidential, Senate and House races. CNN projects Bush wins in Indiana, Kentucky and Georgia, and a Kerry win in Vermont.

Thats 34 electoral for Bush, 3 for Kerry so far

I think the world has always felt american's are arrogant and agressive - just like australians are a bit slow & followers LOL - every country has its 'cliche' - but i've never heard anyone saying so many hateful things about america until the last couple of years.

there is a core of american's who still believe bush was right to start a war against the UN's & support him unconditionally, and because of this, the international population seems to have developed an anti-american attitude, because not enough american's speak out against his actions publicly (or at least in media that is broadcast internationally).

I find that I have a much more positive view of american's than my friends do, and I think its because of this board & the conversations that take place here between representatives of all countries.

I know that America is made up of a few Mike's, a few PD's, and a lot of Colin's ... but a lot of the world thinks all american's are like Mike ... reinforced since 9/11.

or perhaps, america is working against them?

:rolleyes:

I think the world has always felt american's are arrogant and agressive - just like australians are a bit slow & followers LOL - every country has its 'cliche' - but i've never heard anyone saying so many hateful things about america until the last couple of years.

there is a core of american's who still believe bush was right to start a war against the UN's & support him unconditionally, and because of this, the international population seems to have developed an anti-american attitude, because not enough american's speak out against his actions publicly (or at least in media that is broadcast internationally).

I find that I have a much more positive view of american's than my friends do, and I think its because of this board & the conversations that take place here between representatives of all countries.

I know that America is made up of a few Mike's, a few PD's, and a lot of Colin's ... but a lot of the world thinks all american's are like Mike ... reinforced since 9/11. [/b][/quote]




Europe suffers a lot from envy.... Without the United States Europe would be a wasteland. It took United States BLOOD, and fortune to salvage Europe from itself.

It will get worse, the gaps that create this envy will continue to grow.

CJ the UN is a fiction... It has no real power whatsoever. Might as well talk about the League of Nations, or even the Justice League - maybe Superman and Wonderwoman can help out!

Europe suffers a lot from envy.... Without the United States Europe would be a wasteland. It took United States BLOOD, and fortune to salvage Europe from itself.

It will get worse, the gaps that create this envy will continue to grow.

CJ the UN is a fiction... It has no real power whatsoever. Might as well talk about the League of Nations, or even the Justice League - maybe Superman and Wonderwoman can help out! [/b][/quote]
Mike, I think that you may suffer a little inferiority complex. What is it about Europe that scares you exactly?
American blood was shed in Europe along with a lot of other countries. But that was ultimately self defense. A wasteland? Probably not.
However, that seems to be changing. They have already taken over the airplane business. They have years of experience in business, science, and manufacturing, and if unification works (which it seems to be) then they have to possibility of being the most affluent market in the world.

Mike, I think that you may suffer a little inferiority complex. What is it about Europe that scares you exactly?
American blood was shed in Europe along with a lot of other countries. But that was ultimately self defense. A wasteland? Probably not.
However, that seems to be changing. They have already taken over the airplane business. They have years of experience in business, science, and manufacturing, and if unification works (which it seems to be) then they have to possibility of being the most affluent market in the world. [/b][/quote]
KeyGuy, I have not agreed with much of what you have said, but I agree with this...

EU will be more of a force to be reckoned with economically in the coming years.

Edited to emphasize that the last part of your post was what I was referring too. ;-)

LMAO
Someone is stuck in a comic book, but I don't think its me :rolleyes:

I wasn't just talking about Europeans, and I mentioned the UN as an entity that is respected globally by everyone but America. Its not about power, its about having consideration for the rest of the world. I don't think we disagree that America thinks its above voluntarily following the same rules as everyone else.

You always revert back to 'europe are just jealous', which I don't see much evidence of - but I can't speak for them. I can assure you Australian's don't feel envious of American's ... we have most of the advantages you do with about 5% of the problems ... a country that is almost as big as yours in land mass, with only 20 million bodies to share it with. Free Healthcare for everyone, an excellent education system, fair taxes, a booming economy, 1000's of miles of the worlds best beaches, more natural resources than I could list ... and a population that still smiles at each other when passing on the street.

I think its less envy, and more anger that you are jeopardizing our way of life that makes the rest of the world dislike america's actions ... not once have I ever seen you acknowledge that the rest of us have rights as well, that don't prioritize america.

Actually, I forgot to add that. I have never felt that Europeans are jealous of Americans. They admire many things, particularly pop culture. But mostly, I would say they have little real respect but are afraid of the havoc the US can wreak.

Hey CJ.

I think ppl who use the envy characterization mix up the realities of being the largest economy and superpower, and the feelings that come with that on both sides.

It is always easier to be number 2, 3, 4 than number 1. I say that speaking of the power that the US wields and nothing more.

They better respect us, or else we'll kick their ass !!! :yowsa:

yes it is easier to be number 2, 3, 4 ... America seems to perceive the animosity from the rest of the world as envy, when I think its more a case of 'jeez those americans waste a lot of energy on the pursuit of power and very little in pursuit of happiness & humanity'

America is one of the few countries left in the world that is young enough to care about power ... most of the rest of the world has figured out that it doesn't mean dick to the average man.

I see USA as the teenager/twenty something trying to prove itself to the world - and europe as the grandfather, sitting back on the porch sipping a whiskey and sighing ...


We have been doing some biz with a greek company recently, and the day they were supposed to be sending final details for a project we get an email 'we are about to close for 1 month summer holidays so i'll finish this when i return'.

our reaction: "wtf?!!? you are just going on a holiday for a month and leaving a deal that is 2 minutes from completion?!?! are you people stupid?!?!? how unprofessional and inconsiderate!!!"

THAT is envy ... I wish our culture prioritized life over pursuit of power, just like the Europeans do.

yes it is easier to be number 2, 3, 4 ... America seems to perceive the animosity from the rest of the world as envy, when I think its more a case of 'jeez those americans waste a lot of energy on the pursuit of power and very little in pursuit of happiness & humanity'

America is one of the few countries left in the world that is young enough to care about power ... most of the rest of the world has figured out that it doesn't mean dick to the average man.

I see USA as the teenager/twenty something trying to prove itself to the world - and europe as the grandfather, sitting back on the porch sipping a whiskey and sighing ...


We have been doing some biz with a greek company recently, and the day they were supposed to be sending final details for a project we get an email 'we are about to close for 1 month summer holidays so i'll finish this when i return'.

our reaction: "wtf?!!? you are just going on a holiday for a month and leaving a deal that is 2 minutes from completion?!?! are you people stupid?!?!? how unprofessional and inconsiderate!!!"

THAT is envy ... I wish our culture prioritized life over pursuit of power, just like the Europeans do. [/b][/quote]
For the love of R-n don't characterise europeans by the fucking Greeks!!!

I mean...they are virtually lebs!!!

;-)))

My last job in England, I started with a basic five weeks vacation. They bought out my bank holidays and overtime and I had 8 weeks off. The business is one of the most successful in the UK. Funny how that works.