well?
who's gonna bite the dust next?

I picked the "unknown" option cause those happen pretty regularly. Rev share programs start and stop pretty regularly if they don't have a unique hook to em that gets people in the door.

Smaller players and unknowns come and go every day.

The other choices are more intriguing. It would be tough to set odds on any of them.

Ibill? They're owned by a public company. If they aren't profitable and contributing to the bottom line for Intercept, they could very well go away and cease to exist while ICPT writes the whole thing off. I would think they'd try to divest them first....wonder if anyone else would buy them at a bargain basement price? Is there enough value left in them to warrant the pain of running a processor in an environment where the issuers are getting nastier by the day?

Big program? We might see some consolidation, down sizing and other steps to help the bottom line. I dont see any of the large programs folding completely though unless someone just wants to retire or does something to fuck up their ability to process credit cards.

Webmaster boards? Definitely expect to see some die. The market is a tad overcrowded. And without naming names, I'm sure everyone can think of at least one of the larger boards that is likely being kept alive and strung along out of pride alone with the owners not wanting to lose face by folding. Might be some consolidation in this area too.

Silvercash? I dont use it, so I cant say much about this one. A couple of recent incidents defintely make ya raise an eyebrow I guess.

Silvercash? Makes no sense no matter how you slice it.

if the last 2 weeks signup numbers are any indication ......
:unsure:

worst converting weeks in 6 months

I choose big players.

BTW, are there really any big players left since RB left?

:D

If you listen to some in these parts it would be me

:P :biglaugh:

"unknown paysite" with marginal # of webmasters and no one will know about it.

i very seriously doubt silvercash will fold.

Serge et al.

I'd like to think of this as two very seperate discussions.

Who's going to "get out" and who's going to "bite the dust".

Getting out to me is a positive thing, a decision to leave but sell all the properties and recurrings etc..etc..etc..

Biting the dust to me is a negative thing... going bankrupt, unable to pay bills, etc..etc..

Hooper,
sometimes! English plays tricks on me and doesn't exactly transfer my thoughts
;_)))

thanks for bringing clarity
;-))

This is all really interesting. Our signups are steady. No major drop and no major increase. We are developing our program, adding more sites and perks to really ramp it up. Most of our traffic comes from steady customers that return to us and links coming in. Once I develop my program (Niche Cartel) with the sites we're opening, I think we'll do great steady business.

On the other hand programs I've promoted and done very with in the past are down. I could always cover hosting, some prorgamming and outside work just from my up sells. Even bigger names that brought me a few hundred, at least per month are down to almost zero. Meanwhile when I look at banners clicks via our own program we're still sending them a lot of traffic. I don't know why it's not converting now.

Sorry I've been away lately. Too many projects, not enough time and I'm beat! It's all good!

Dianna

I feel alot of independent consultants will be gone within a year. Companies can no longer afford to employ those simply because they are well liked.

If thats the case, you'll be around forever.

:P

I think that people who go around spouting their predictions off should probably make sure they aren't set up to be the next one out. Some states just don't take kindly to pornographers and I think there will be some real damage done to a few.

KK, your bitterness is showing! Brad was never your type. You were attracted to his money and that damn dimple in his ass. :gbounce:

ROFL, confucy, you're too funny.

In case you haven't noticed, any little potshots I might have taken are a reaction, not an action.

Remember that old adage about not poking a sleeping dog with a stick, especially if you have a steak tied to your back?

LOL sinsin

Hehehehe :wnw:

Shouldn't AVSs be on this list somewhere?

Youd be surprised to know how many consultants are out there behind the scenes working with some of the lesser known pay sites that intentionally stay below the radar.

My guess is Ibill isnt doing so hot. Im still getting emails from the chick I met last year in Florida wanting me to use their prepaid program. Of course that shows me how little she paid attention to the conversation we had last year.

One thing is for sure conventional and "old school" billing models are going to have to change. The horn of change has already sounded by the AVS systems and I think we will see that continue to play out until oh say about November when the game changes again.

Say Brad are you goingto have more pizza in the booth this year?
A hawngry assed white boy like me has to get paid somehow. If so Ill see you for lunch!

I have been wondering about the changes going on, and who are going to adapt. Business truth is that "If it ain´t growing, then its dying", and alot of companies have not been growing for some time now.

Processors have really lost alot in the last 2-3 years, and I´m suprised that they have not changed their business much within that period. When I think of the "million dollar" fines, then spending "thousands" getting more billing options seams like a small cost to secure more business.
Ofcourse processors have been under attack in that time, and it could probably explain why they are not more ahead. Good news its not too late for processors to rethink their billing setup (on a grand scale that is, not just add another dialer, talking about real longterm solutions).

Paysite owners will probably soon need to rethink their payout model...
TAX, fines, fraud, low conversions, low rention, higher production/content costs, more programming etc. all cut into those big profits everyone saw years ago. Make no mistake you can still run a paysite program, and make alot of money, but the margins are getting lower, and the volume needs to be higher to make the same amount of money. Dunno if the "old" programs will change their payout or incress their "scrubbing" (countries, hits, signups etc.), but the current payout model will just keep getting worse... When you hear someone complain about 1/1000 signup ratios today, then I bet in 1 year from now, you will hear some say that he thinks "xxx sponsor" is great because it converts 1/1000, and not 1/2000 like all those other per signup programs...

Actual I think that most webmasters sending traffic would like to see some changes, which will make their traffic convert better, and add to their overall bottom line.



Last edited by Rolo at Jun 29 2003, 11:30 AM

Paysites have already adapted their payouts by turning the shave up... and they will probably continue to do so until it becomes ludicrous and painfully transparent to ALL.

Paysites have already adapted their payouts by turning the shave up... and they will probably continue to do so until it becomes ludicrous and painfully transparent to ALL.[/b][/quote]
Quite frankly I don't care who shaves and who doesn't.

At the end of the day what makes the most money in a given set of circumstances is what you do.

If sending to Sponsor A nets you more than sending to your own stuff, or if knowing how Sponsor B steals from you still leaves you with a bigger net then what does it matter?

This business is not about counters and conversion rates, it's about cashing checks.

Oh, I agree KK.... just stating that paysites HAVE adapted their payout models.

As any big player goes there will be 10 fighting to take there place.

If Ibill went I am sure Mike IA would have his boys write a better script and take their place!

If GFY, Porno Junkies, Net Pond and YNOT Masters went within 30 minutes the board scripts selling companies would have had a huge rush and the domain names : www.netjunkies.com www.ynotpond.com would have been brought and their new owners creating fake aliases to make the board appear busy.


If a unkwon paysite with marginal webmasters went the traffic would just be redirected towards a big site.

I personnally reckon there wont be alot of companies going down totally but more over scaled down and even become a secondary income to the webmasters running them as they get 'proper' jobs.

Huh?

Monk, I know exactly what you are saying, and you are right -- of course the root of the problem goes right back to resellers. If they'd stop being blinded by conversion ratios and payout amounts that are basically meaningless, and start realizing how income actually works, then sponsors could adjust accordingly.

Instead its like inflation, the currency keeps going up but the underlying value never really changes.

Quite frankly I don't care who shaves and who doesn't.

At the end of the day what makes the most money in a given set of circumstances is what you do.

If sending to Sponsor A nets you more than sending to your own stuff, or if knowing how Sponsor B steals from you still leaves you with a bigger net then what does it matter?

This business is not about counters and conversion rates, it's about cashing checks.[/b][/quote]
Damn KK---

Weve been saying that for years. I dont care if they are shaving me but still making me "Big Time Green" Ill send em my traffic.

ANd if they arent shaving me but not making me much money I will dump their ass.

Have you considered a career in being a consultant?

And part of the problem is no one thinks they're making money unless they're getting $35-40 for every signup.

With the price of bandwidth and content these days, you can make a profit on the surfer at a much lower price point....you just cant pay your affiliates $35 on a pps program at a lower price.

Those high price points also likely contribute to chargebacks. $39.95 is enough money to make most people consider it worthwhile to call the billing company or bank to try to get their money back if they weren't expecting it or simply forgot to cancel.

I’m really going to go into bitch mode here for sec. This is an interesting thread indeed.

I’ve carefully examined adult internet over the past 5 years. This past year I’ve studied the games and carefully watched the players and ships passing in the night. The $35.00 & up payout games satisfied the webmaster wanna be who needed a fast buck and was too stupid to understand the fine print or that there’s a good possibly they’re being shaved anyhow. Have you ever noticed that the companies offering these high payouts on signup use their own software to track? I have.

When we did a pay per signup we wondered how we’d make it attractive for webmasters. Offer a realistic signup and % rebilling was our solution. We could cover cost, still make money and since our sites normally do retain, everyone wins. I’m not sure I want our program to appeal to a large majority of webmaster I see on the boards.

You know I really wonder about the future and I’m not sure how the new up selling thing will work. Things will change, they are changing and it should be interesting to see which way it falls. Right now our focus is on harvesting traffic and creating traffic venues. My intuition tells me that it’s all going to boil down to direct sales and sites getting customers- not so much on sites/programs getting webmasters. I also see some serious networking going on. Not like we see it today but large companies merging or doing business together.

DV

perhaps its because relying upon a single processor is a sure fire way to fuck yourself. would you really want to sign up to a per signup sponsor who made you sign up to 8 different processors and every time a new processor was added you had to sign up for that one in order to keep getting credit?

customized software has so many purposes aside from those you seem to believe:
1) cascading billing - not possible without custom software
2) effective fraud detection - not possible without custom software
3) switching processors on the fly - not possible wihtout custom software

those are just the 3 biggest processor related items, you could also point out that most processor stats suck the big left nut. detailed reporting, intuititive interfaces, useful information, good summary stats, rewards programs, useful support interfaces, and having everything all working together, integrated and working in harmony?

we've spend nearly 6 figures now developing our own back end, not so that i can secretly shave you, but so that i can run a program that is actually competetive.

as you get bigger, you'll find that the only limiting factors on your success are your designers, your content, your wallet and your program software.

sorry for the rant. but i have spent an inordinate amount of time, money and effort to build what you just called a "shady way to steal".

DV, buy a clue. Only people who understand $35 pay per sign programs are those select few who can play the #'s game and make them work. Maybe 10 people in this business.

Everyone else is left on the sidelines scratching heads with empty wallets.

RB left? For real?

First of all Hooper that statement wasn’t directed towards anyone in particular. AS for the extra perks you’ve mentioned in your email, today most of large third party processors are offering all that and more. Check it out.

I’m sure that you’ve spent tons of money of innovative scripts to track affiliates, legitimately bill customers and provide your own customer service. When I do the numbers, based on what I have, it’s worth it for me to use them and I have at least 3 merchant accounts of my own.

The main advantage is switching processors on the fly. You’re right, if you have a program that protects your webmasters this way then good for you.

I’m not sure why you thought that I as pointing a finger at you and claiming that You- hopper offered a shady deal.

Bradshaw, I assume you’re one of the 10 people that have a clue? Of course you’d say that but in that statement you confirmed that what I believe to be true is.

untrue - (in reference to Lee Noga)



Last edited by RichC at Jun 30 2003, 12:26 PM

DV, I see your point. I just noticed your tag line. $20 per join and 50%. Monkey business.

One of those people who can not compete, so they claim everyone else is up to shaving/fraud. IMHO, if you do not have a 7 figure bank roll, you have no business running a webmaster program. Might as well go host at Like Whoa while you are at it and process with wsb!

RB left? For real?[/b][/quote]
Well, sort of.

Sorry Rich!


:)

no worries :awinky:

KK: " Quite frankly I don't care who shaves and who doesn't.

At the end of the day what makes the most money in a given set of circumstances is what you do."

KK are you serious ?

hhmmmmmm....never thought you think like that ...

I am against shaving, stealing, whatever you call it . Fraud, shaving where you draw the line ?

where does it stop ? If I need to steal from people to stay in bizz...I'll close my bizz and go do something else.

I don't believe in that because the dollar is low, economy is bad, bla bla you have the right to change the rules. And commiting fraud, etc..

One of the reasons this business is going to shit because people keep breaking rules and crossing bounderies..

Look at all the people promoting preggy content, animal sex, max hardcore bullshit..


Just my opinion....NO I am not going out of bizz...I am on the good side ...below 1 percent Chargebacks, Live content, Based in Europe. :nyanya:

This is about competition. You’re the one that jumped in to this one with a half ass rant Bradshaw.

So based on your statement I can assume that you started in this industry with a 7 figure bank roll, right? You, the wealthy entrepreneur decided that you’d run a webmasters program. Ok, good for you but you just insulted many of the webmasters that might promote your program. After all it’s us little bitty 6 figure bank roll people that own web sites and promote affiliate programs. Opps ok… it’s the OTHER PEON’s in the industry that owns a couple of sites and also promotes your programs?

You’ve got a lot of class man. I wish I as smart as you.