What changes are you making due to economy?

[Hell Puppy]

So the economy is in the toilet. Credit is non-existent unless you have good credit and enough downpayment to ensure the lender isn't stuck with whatever you're buying. Stocks are tanking.

What changes are you making in terms of business and personal?

For me, as I've said, my investments are already pretty well diversified. I will not do a sell off of stocks or funds. I am continuing to contribute additional money to my accounts at same rate I always have. I may rebalance a bit more conservatively toward the end of the year depending on what the market does between now and then.

I have moved some money between banks though. The bailout bill moves the FDIC limit to $250K, but I feel better with fewer eggs in more baskets right now.

I continue to make major purchases that I need for business. I had to have a new laptop, I bought it. Likewise I continue to upgrade network storage, etc as normal.

But I may scrutinize personal purchases a little more. I've had an itch for a new SUV since the car dealers are practically giving them away. I'm gonna sit on that one a bit longer so long as my current one doesn't cause me any pain.

And for money that I may have routed into something like that, I am beefing up the "rainy day" fund a bit. Likewise, I'm about to go thru everything business wise and do some consolidation and revamping to maximize what's going on and cut some high risk stuff. High risk meaning anyone that I think might be tits up (or sold to DeeCash) in 6 months is gonna go.

That's why you see me sniffing around doing some new diversification.

At the same time, there aren't enough hours in the day right now, and it looks like it may be a very good time to hire some help. So far I haven't found anyone that is both sane and hungry. ;)

[Toby]

I've had a couple of niche paysites in the planning stages for quite some time. I'm still looking to do that eventually, but now is not the time. Those projects have been removed from The List and placed on hold until the economy improves.

The rest of the projects on The List involve minimal up front expense, which has already been paid for, so it's just a matter of setting aside the time to get them done.

I don't see any major changes in my day to day business practices. My overhead is minimal, I keep a pretty close eye on things, and I've always run lean & mean.

Income is good right now. September was my third highest month ever. If income does start to drop off I can easily cut back on a few non-essentials and ride out the storm.

[TheEnforcer]

Just waiting patiently for a mainstream project to start and kick in extra cash which will be very soon :>))

[gonzo]

Im waiting for you all to open your AEBN checks this month to see the oncoming storm finally hit the radar.

[softball]

I polished up my tinfoil hat and am still working on launching a totally new website.

[RawAlex]

Well, life in Canada hasn't been entirely hit by the whole US sky is falling shit, but being dependant on you guys for income, well, I'm there.

First a foremost, it's the "money in the bank, don't owe nobody nothing" theory that works well right now. Watching the stock markets closely looking perhaps for an entry point in the mid-term future that will let me ride the other side back up, really depends on who wins the US election, I suspect.

Online wise, it's all "clean up in aisle 6" stuff. Sad reality as an affiliate is that 95% of programs have either (a) gone to insanely bad conversions, (b) are fucking surfers over with insane cross sales, or (c) are owned by Deecash and are doing both. So some of it is picking and choosing stuff to promote, trying to move the target and find programs that aren't being assholes.

The hardest part at this point is keeping an eye on outgoing links to paysites and stuff. Plenty of programs playing games right now, changing affiliate codes, pulling galleries, changing gallery systems, changing to NATS (and not supporting their old codes or galleries) and so on. Other webmaster sites are disappearing at a speed not seen since the whole 2257 shit hit the fan a couple of years back, so I am trying to track down and kill links that go to parking pages and worse (malware, codec installs, etc) as expired domains get snapped up by assholes.

Oh yeah, trying to make sure that the companies I am doing buisness with aren't going to disappear overnight. When you start seeing customer service disappear, when support phone numbers are disconnected, well, you can tell the shit is approaching the fan.

[softball]

Well, life in Canada hasn't been entirely hit by the whole US sky is falling shit, but being dependant on you guys for income, well, I'm there.

First a foremost, it's the "money in the bank, don't owe nobody nothing" theory that works well right now. Watching the stock markets closely looking perhaps for an entry point in the mid-term future that will let me ride the other side back up, really depends on who wins the US election, I suspect.

Online wise, it's all "clean up in aisle 6" stuff. Sad reality as an affiliate is that 95% of programs have either (a) gone to insanely bad conversions, (b) are fucking surfers over with insane cross sales, or (c) are owned by Deecash and are doing both. So some of it is picking and choosing stuff to promote, trying to move the target and find programs that aren't being assholes.

The hardest part at this point is keeping an eye on outgoing links to paysites and stuff. Plenty of programs playing games right now, changing affiliate codes, pulling galleries, changing gallery systems, changing to NATS (and not supporting their old codes or galleries) and so on. Other webmaster sites are disappearing at a speed not seen since the whole 2257 shit hit the fan a couple of years back, so I am trying to track down and kill links that go to parking pages and worse (malware, codec installs, etc) as expired domains get snapped up by assholes.

Oh yeah, trying to make sure that the companies I am doing buisness with aren't going to disappear overnight. When you start seeing customer service disappear, when support phone numbers are disconnected, well, you can tell the shit is approaching the fan.
so what you are saying is the business is streamlining. lol

[RawAlex]

Does streamlining mean "going to shit"?

[softball]

Does streamlining mean "going to shit"?
Sure. Or at least to hell in a hand basket. But on the other hand, it is still a good living and beats working. Ya just gotta stay one step ahead of the shoe shine.

[DannyCox]

The only difference for me is watching larger purchase, like for a new vehicle. Like many others, I'm holding off for a bit. I don't owe anyone a cent at the moment, and in this climate, I like it like that.

[Hell Puppy]

So many people have learned to live beyond their means... That's part of the mortgage crisis. People bought houses they should know they cant afford. Hell, when I bought mine, they qualified me for like 4 times more than I spent. I bought what I needed and what I could easily afford.

Plenty of more live on their credit cards. Vacations, christmas, etc run the debt up and they can never whittle it back down because the interest is killing them.

And in this industry, again how many people do we know who have pissed away millions and have no networth?

The piper wants his money!

I have some debt, but I have enough liquid to writ a check tomorrow and pay it all off. I've taken advantage of low interest rates to finance stuff for free and keep my cash. I LOVE 0.0% financing!

[Dravyk]

I bought fire insurance for my matress. :whistling

[tony404]

Interesting article
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/06/business/06econ.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp

[Hell Puppy]

Interesting article
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/06/business/06econ.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp

Could be a bad holiday season for retailers.

I also would not want to be a car dealer right now. Word from people I know in that business is not only are sales off due to fear of the economy. Even segments that were doing well, such as econoboxs, are now in trouble.

People want to trade in their gas guzzlers, but that market is already flooded and you cant give away something like a full sized truck or SUV. Now on top of that you have the credit issues.

Loans are not being approved with negative equity rolled into them even for someone with good credit. There's no guarantee you'll get approved even with a credit score over 700 unless you put a little something down. The banks are protecting themselves against a loss in case they have to repo. Loans are totally defensive right now, very little speculation as they try to hold their head above water.

[Hell Puppy]

Another thing I'm wondering...

How will the economy impact the January shows in Vegas?

If you go for AEE, that's a hell of an expense. Airfare is high due to fuel, and because that show is head up with CES the hotel rates are generally in the $300 per night neighborhood unless you room with GonZo down at Terribles (it's not just a name it's a description).

And unless you're on the Anal Hobbit plan, Vegas is not longer a cheap place to eat. The good dinner buffets are $30 and up. And a really good meal such as Delmonico is gonna tip in at $100 a head.

Speaking of which, we need to find Trish again, she's a cheap date...Fat Burger!!

[tony404]

Could be a bad holiday season for retailers.

I also would not want to be a car dealer right now. Word from people I know in that business is not only are sales off due to fear of the economy. Even segments that were doing well, such as econoboxs, are now in trouble.

People want to trade in their gas guzzlers, but that market is already flooded and you cant give away something like a full sized truck or SUV. Now on top of that you have the credit issues.

Loans are not being approved with negative equity rolled into them even for someone with good credit. There's no guarantee you'll get approved even with a credit score over 700 unless you put a little something down. The banks are protecting themselves against a loss in case they have to repo. Loans are totally defensive right now, very little speculation as they try to hold their head above water.

Unless a miracle happens I see this being a very bad christmas for retailers. When I worked at a music store,the holiday shopping season represented between 70 to 80 percent of their year.So that's going to be scary for them.

[Greg B]

Lots to say here for sure!

For me, things are turning for the better in a major way. Mainstream stuff will put me into the high six figures easy. I didn't put all my eggs into one basket.

As for adult, I've noticed something cool. What used to be high in sales in one area dropped but sales increased in another area. That means I can see where the consumer interest is headed. Smarter shoppers out there.

Downside, the money crunch is gonna kick the shit out of people domestically and worldwide. You may not see it now but it's coming and it's going to be brutal. I mean fucking brutal. With no available credit to the common guy we'll have an even greater separation between wealthy and poor. Cars and other big ticket items are going unsold and here in Southern California, you used to be able to get a new car with no credit, no money down, no payments for a year! No car sales, means dealerships are going to die on the vine. Same with computer sales, etc. that most people purchase on credit.

Hotels, amusement parks, anything that is would require credit is fucked. Now you need a credit score of 800 to get credit and then it's tough. The good old days are over.

Criminal groups like loan sharks are going to clean the fuck up. Foreign gangsters will be loaning money to fill in the gap at humongous rates. However, if Obama wins he'll push for legislation to restore the usury laws that Nixon got rid of which began this credit nightmare in the first place.

We are in this shit because far too many of us are leeches. We live off suppressing others and then feed off their credit and interest. Moneychangers/lenders. We live off gambling on the future, stocks, futures etc.

Look at your stats now and see if they've dropped and stabilized or if they've dropped and keep dropping. If they're continuing to drop you're fucked. If they've dropped and stablilized you have your bottom line and you need to work more at everything.

The only hope, the only hope is that the next president pushes for accountability on all levels of society so that a strong foundation is established like never before except the early 50's. That abundance in the early 50's went on well into the 60's but got eaten up by the military industrial complex. That led to Nixon taking the standard off of gold and killing the usury laws.

We're in fucking danger. As more people lose their homes and with winter around the corner if we go lower we won't be buying foreign goods and services plain and simple. We stop buying foreign goods and services for 30-60 days and the world goes back to shit on a stick quick.

[Greg B]

Gee as I so type the Dow is crashing faster than wingless pelican.

I'm scared to see what the Asian markets do tomorrow. China is a giant now but they are extremely vulnerable, far more than the U.S..

Europe will survive no matter what. Europe's been through so much shit in the past 100 years that if you hit it with an asteroid covered in flammable shit filled with man eating termites the Europeans would find a way to make the asteroid crater a monument, light the flammable shit as fuel, and turn the man eating giant termites into a delicacy served with wine and beer.

[Hell Puppy]

I was hoping 10K might be the bottom. I am thinking it might be more lik 9K. We closed below 10K on the Dow, let's see if that's the bottom and it bounces tomorrow. If so, I look for that bottom to get tested repeatedly from now til at least the election.

Or we might get a dead cat bounce in the morning and make way for 9K as people panic.

[tony404]

its amazing how fear makes it all so much worse. People get the shit scared out of them watching the news. Even though they are working and in a relative safe place. Employers start laying off as a precaution and because business is starting to drop because gainfully employed people are now afraid to spend money. It all becomes a self for fulling prophecy.
Wachovia had to be sold not because of the bad loans.I read it was because the stock dropped and there was a silent run on the bank. People had already seen multiple bank failures and it was business as usual but the news scares them so they do these things that add fuel to the fire.

[Greg B]

Listening to the scenario of the 'derivatives' market the numbers are staggering. We're talking tens of trillions of dollars of not a quadrillion of crashed credit. It's absurd but Wall Street did it along with the help of the FED.

There's only one hope and one hope only and one follow up. Something simple that would end all this bullshit over and done with and it's so simple these clowns won't figure it out til they've started eating one another.

[Hell Puppy]

I keep preaching how dumb the average American is.

We're losing any sense of independence, and we have a true herd mentality now. We saw it here in Atlanta for the last month when the herd got spooked because stations were running out of gas.

Suddenly they are filling up everything they own and topping off as soon as there's room to hold more. What happens? A minor shortage now becomes a major shortage and a self fulfilling prophecy.

One thing that is very different from now versus 1929 so far is we have not had a real run on the banks yet. People are moving money around, especially those who have over the FDIC insured $100K. The feds tacked on raising that to $250K in the big bailout bill.

So far we haven't seen people make a run on the banks and want it all in cash. If that happens we're looking at a depression.

Same thing can happen to stocks, if people panic and run for cash, it'll keep tumbling. I still think what we're seeing this week is a lot of hedge fund redemptions as a result of the bail out bill. I wouldn't touch a margin with a 10 foot pole right now.

[RawAlex]

Every "saved" bank in failure mode is one more in the "good" column. This whole process is about moving things from the questionable side of the chart to the surviving side of the chart. That creates stability, which is turn will allow at least some of this garbage leveraged position to get worked out. In some cases, it appears that all this loan repackaging and credit combining has lead to leveraged loans backed by highly leverages securities bought with the proceeds of highly leverages loans... and so on. Unwinding it all and seeing what is left will be key to getting to the end of this, no matter how messy.

For online anything, the loss of the credit card base will be a big issue. However, if people do rationalize their lives and get out of band loans and debt and still have a job attached, they might actually be able to keep a functional credit card and go forward.

Housing is looking very interesting. I was checking Las Vegas foreclosures today, the number of properties is insane, but the need for housing is still there. There would appear to be some great potential for buying some of these houses and turning them into rentals, as the prices have dropped through the floor. Units that were pushing $350k or more are now under $200k. That loss of value isn't entirely real compared to the market, but it might take a few years to gain some of it back.

IMHO, at the point that the US has it's election and votes out the last republican't in charge, then things will start to get better. So one more month.

[Greg B]

Yes about the housing market. It's dropped to somewhat sane prices again. Basically we're seeing thing right themselves by default but it may get horrible before it gets better because Americans have become so complacent, without vision and community.

The Chinese are gonna get fucked. Why? Because they fell for the oldest game in the book and that was profiting from debt. They were urged to buy up American debt not realizing if it was that valuable the Americans would have bought their own debt up. Now if we default millions and millions of people in Asia will get fucked stupid.

Don't put money down on oppressive exchange practices. It never fucking works.

The world is about to get it's financial ass kicked like never before but when all is said and done it'll level off at it's bottom line and hopefully that won't be as bad as the Great Depression. It'll mean more conservation of resources and thinking clearly instead of being sloppy and irresponsible.

The next few weeks will decide what will happen next. We may well be seeing the end of the capitalistic FED and money barons coming to an end.

[Hell Puppy]

If you have the house or the credit to buy a house, and can manage a rental property it's not a bad time to buy for sure.

But you need to be willing to sit on it for 5-10 years. And you have to watch your cash flow. Gotta be able to eat vacancies and repairs or you could become one of the drowning.

I've always been more fond of undeveloped land. I like land because they're not making any more of it (well, maybe in dubai).

I have been keeping an eye on multifamily dwellings though. I wouldn't mind having a small apartment building and hiring a super to deal with all of the onsite stuff I have no time for.

[Greg B]

Hell Puppy, being a landlord sucks. The liability insurance is ridiculous and getting higher. You're always dependent on shit like fire inspections etc.

But did anyone realize that today is October 7th. Tonight the Presidential candidates will debate. I'm betting stocks will drop to damn near crash records and both candidates will be hard pressed to address the issues instead of mudslinging.

However I have a feeling something bizarre will happen like Iran and Israel getting it on to divert attention.

[Dravyk]

People are moving money around, especially those who have over the FDIC insured $100K. The feds tacked on raising that to $250K in the big bailout bill. The best thing -- perhaps the only good thing -- to come out of this debacle thus far.